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Old 03-08-2006, 12:05 PM
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elau elau is offline
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Join Date: Nov 1999
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These are my observations (not necessary correct):

1). A direct conflict with China has to be MADD, much like the old days with the U.S.S.R. A prolong war with China, especially if it takes place "over there" is a slaughter house for our troops.

2). They are catching up with technologies. Don't be fooled by our media and Government. I recently saw a small footage of Chinese military on parade. Much to my surprise, they wear pretty much the same uniform as our troops. Gone was the peasant looking garb the Red Army so famous for (that may explain the rise with the military budget - modernization).

3). China will avoid any confrontations with the U.S., at least not in the next 30 or more years. They would rather wait for us to erode from within. A trend we are doing extremely well. Chinese are known for their patience, and that's the secret they survive thousands of years while the Western Empires came and went.

4). Taiwan will be reunited with the Mainland eventually. And there is nothing the U.S. can do about it. Taiwan was a renegade province and the Taiwanese leader was no better than the Communists at the time.

5). Chinese are proud people, as long as the West don't corner them like they did in the 18th and the 19th centuries, they would rather seek a peaceful co-existence. History is a good indicator for that. The main effort for the U.S. is to continue stroke their ego and encourage them in continue taking roles in world peace and politics.

6). The small military budget (yet growing) is an indication of two things: they don't intend to wage an all out war with anybody any time soon, the military budget is inaccurate - businesses are the main financier of the Red Army. They are tied at the hip.

7). Before the Chinese can engage an outside war, they need to stabilize their Western frontiers first, especially the Muslim minorities.

8). There are much infrastructure development to be done outside of the coastal regions. That will divert enough attention for the next two decades, if not longer.
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