Quote:
Originally Posted by waybomb
Ya, but everybody still wants to blame Bush, China, Opec, or whomever, instead of looking at what really drives the price - speculators.
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You're not really wrong over the short run, but it's the specs that keep this a free market. Without them - and they'll be there - with or without an organized market, you'd have Cargill vs. the farmers. The specs get in the middle and allow business to take place at what can be shown to be a better price to the end user. Over short periods though, you're very right. That's where we are right now, but don't worry, they will be punished and that will be to the benefit of the stockholders first and the public secondly. If it weren't for the insanity in price now to motivate alternatives and conservation we would wait until the supply side becomes hopeless and be standing in the dark wondering what happened.
I have to file a report every day about what I do, so there's nothing that is not known to the regulators. My knack is to trade on differentials instead of outright buying and selling, so that over time things reflect an economic reality.
Buy Beans/Sell Corn or sell Bean Meal/buy Bean Oil - sell Crude/buy Nat Gas. and so on. Without the spreaders the differentials would widen wildly in favor of producers and retail would be a much more expensive world.