It is well know what the production of an individual oil well will look like. It is a bell curve. You can then look at the production of various countries. It looks like a bell curve as well. That is then extrapolated to the world as a whole.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hubbert_peak_oil_plot.svg

I know most people don't want to believe it, but seriously, how can anyone expect production to keep increasing? It's not like corn or soybeans that can be grown. It's not like water that keeps going through a cycle and returning as rain. It's not even like gold or copper that are recycled over and over again. It is removed from the ground and BURNT. It's gone. And there is not any more being produced. It's the most useful and valuable raw material in modern society and the vast majority of it is just being burnt, or being made into useless plastic trinkets being sold at Walmart. It's idiotic