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Jim B. · #10 02-28-2014, 08:30 PM

Russia will NEVER give up its naval bases in the Crimea which are wthin the Ukraine.

NEVER.

I think the country will split in half and Russia will go in and make everything east of the Dniepr River which on the East side has more Russian leaning inhabitants anyway. Looking at a map, the river seems to suggest suggests a natural border anyway.

THIS is the best mement to do it as the new government of Western Ukraine is too weak to oppose Russia militarily in the Eastern part of the Country, that Russia always wanted to have anyway ever since Ukraine broke away in 1991.
Whether they annex it outright or make it a satellite country again I have no idea, The deposed Ukrainian leader, having taken sanctuary in Russia already, might want to come back and be the head of the "new" (eastern Ukraine) - the majority of the folks already there probably want him in charge again anyhow. .And if the Ukraine tried to hang on to it, the 5th column of Russians there would create a intolerable situation for the Ukrainians already.

I think there is practically a fait accompli here - it's pretty much over.

Ukraine is already on the verge of bankruptcy, they need $15 billion euros right now just to stay afloat. They hope to get it from the EU.

If a new Eastern Ukraine forms, or its absorbed into Russia completely, I am sure Russia will funnel billions of the equivalent to the Ukraine, in cash, natural gas subsidies, whatever it takes to keep the place under control, and that will include occupying soldiers if need be.

The UN or the Western allies can't step in to keep the Country together wihout the risk of an all out war. Even the Ukranians might have some nukes from the Ussr around.

Bottom line is Putin will NOT put the Russian naval presence in he Crimea at risk. It is a matter of vital Russian national security.

That's what I think.

I have Russian friends here, and Ukrainian ones too. (MANY have settled in this area) But this is kind of a third rail. they are not too eager to talk about this. To them it is very upsetting, personal and quite real, with relatives and some family still back there.

So far as those hotties are concerned, I agree that they are luscious blue eyed good looking blondes, but many of them will NOT age well. Their looks REALLY go, -- in many many cases. But many of them are extremely educated, especially those that grew up under Communism - doctors, physicists and so on, often multilingual.

Just my thoughts today. We'll see. The USA should stay out of this - no strategic interests at stake, though it is heartbreaking to see the country ripped asunder.

Geopolitically I think the country will be split in half, as I said.