My 2 cents...
My take on extended warranties is that a company wouldn't offer it unless thay made money off of it. It is unlike buying insurance... you buy it if you can't afford the loss. When it comes to extended car warranties (or appliance, electronic, or even toasters!), I prefer to self-insure. Yes, it's a crap-shoot, but the odds are with you when you self-insure and, much as it hurts, I can afford the repairs.
95 E320 Cabriolet, 131K