Nobody can project the future in reality. I suspect the daily use of almost all 123s and 126s still used as daily drivers. Will end pretty well in the next decade. For those that want to hang on a parts car with a good engine and transmission stored in a secure fashion probably would be money well spent otherwise. It is already hard to find good used engines in my locality now for example.

It is also impossible to really forcast the effect that substantial changes will occur in the existing car market. For example Ford and GM did not present a totally honest picture of why they ceased production. Retained values had been sagging so much that the lease rates would have been too high for leasing of their products to continue. The cars on return at the end of the lease periods had little retained value in compared to past times.

All that really occurred is the manipulation of used car prices in north America has pretty well broken down. All the price guides for used cars in north America where industry generated. The far too abundant supply of used cars did this I suspect. Unless the past can be restored.

I doubt it can incidentally. Adds many serious issues for companies that finance new car purchases. They are losing too much security far too fast on the loans they supply. The people with these loans may tend to walk at the first serious problem after the warranty period. Not because they want to. More that they will have to.

Most those loans will have another four years to run. Factor in the repair and the car is in essence worthless at that point. A transmission failure for example could easily do it. Since this action occurs in a credit driven economy. They would be reluctant to take out the five thousand dollar loan that would be needed to rectify the situation. People that use credit excessively are unlikely to source a good used transmission and install it themselves.

At some point the chickens come home to roost unfortunately.. This point is either here or approaching I suspect for far too many. My overall point is we are living through an almost unpredictable time. Or it is so predictable nobody wants to face the reality. I cannot see us as having the ability to live in our own little bubbles too much longer. We are going to become seriously distracted I suspect instead.

Now if the manufactures were really astute enough to suspect the end of the credit driven economy as well. Might be in sight. They would not want to engage the transition period.

I drove around the local Hyunai dealers lot the other day. A complete reversal of their last years inventory is obviously present. Now a handful of 2019s and a substantial number of 2018 leftovers. Where just last year it was the total opposite. To be fair they have also seen the largest percentage of new car sales loss as a brand in recent history.

It is becoming reasonable that a lot of new car dealers may close their doors in the not too distance future. Some of the larger ones have stopped sending their trades to the auction. Either the return is far too low or there is no bidding on them. So they are selling them very cheap directly at this time here.

All these things plus many other probabilities and possibilities will also have an effect of the retention of our older diesel cars as daily drivers for many members. In one way or another that cannot be accurately for cast. So parts ability may or may not become the primary issue for those that continue to daily drive them. Far too much accumulated milage would concern me more. Where far too many things are just wearing out far too often to consider the car reliable or practical any more.

So in conclusion much depends on the individual world members actually live in. Or how they perceive it.