Quote:
Originally Posted by Idle
About 50 years ago I was in a rebuilding company in Fort Worth. I don't remember the name of the place but I do remember almost everyone there was Hispanic. I also remember that almost no one spoke English.
I was joking with the owner that he should move his operation to Mexico. He said he might do so some day.
I lost touch with them but I heard they moved to Mexico about 40 years ago.
And then, about 25 years ago I was working with a guy who was rebuilding brakes, and nothing more, for classic autos. This was the type of place where you could even bring in your calipers for rebuilding and he would return your parts to you. This was for the hardcore who wanted to keep everything numbers matching.
He's still in business. So could it be that service is the new way to success in the US and not mass production?
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This was the projection fostered on to the public at the time of the mass removal of the industrialization of north America. That we would survive in service industry capacities.
To this day I still consider it the most serious error the governments. Of both countries in north America may have ever made. There have been some dandies before this. They just do not compare in seriousness.
The problem I saw was it was not a value added alternative in the same sense as true manufacturing has.. The largest class of workers in numbers today is perhaps the fast food component of the north American economy. Essentially hamburger flippers. That alone speaks volumes.
In the early 1980s I tried to explain to people the change I thought was underway. Plus the eventual downside.
I do not know just how much longer until it is realized that we must go head to head with the orient. We will have to automate as they are doing now. So labor costs are not a factor. This also means corporations that employ a lot of automation will have to be very heavily taxed.
I watch for bell weathers of change but so far it is pretty grim. Constant endless debt accumulating is not a valid alternative. Other countries have done it through history and the outcome seldom varies. It creates all kinds of problems. The governments may act on your behalf but the responsibility for their actions does impact the society they govern.
I have asked for quotes on some automated production equipment. At my age of 77 it makes little sense for myself. I just think it is better to leave something functional that produces product for the kids and grandchildren. So if I live two more years and my health holds it should be up and running.
I try to practice what I believe in. The product goes head to head with a product now made almost exclusively in China. The in house labor component will be very small. The market it serves is not really subject to the economic business cycle. The demand remains constant. You have to basically expand the market area to increase it.
We have done several production runs under the radar to test the product. Plus the response to it. They were labor intensive with out the automation equipment. To maintain a profit there could be no middleman. So they were sold direct. By word of mouth.
One result that is still troubling was the request for special orders with the additional cost as not a particular concern by the customers. This demand was not really expected. Nor was there any real expectation that that demand even existed in the percentage it does.
China does not serve this market. Nor anyone else. Yet this means that even more complex machines are needed. One I have asked for a quote on can hold ninety different programs.
In the new environment there are many things that have to be done. The level of automation must be kept out of sight. The cash flow must be concealed as much as possible. So I think we will set up bank accounts with many banks and deposit on a rotating basis. So the larger companies that are on Dun and Brad streets lookout list may not pick us up too early. Going to be tough with so much payment by all forms of electronic media today. We will not be trying to hide from the tax people.
Ironically the banks own what I fear. The business rating firms. Since we will not be financing anything or leasing equipment. We are less likely to see much interest by them.. Hopefully. They do far more than credit ratings.
If you are observed making a real dollar. Your operation will see competition. If the operation can stay in the background clutter for a couple of years. The operation should remain profitable even if it is forced to sell under any newer companies costs.
If we can keep our level of automation under wraps. Automation is expensive. At the same time if you can move the production output fast enough. The input costs can be recovered reasonably fast. With automation you can run 24/7. With far less issues that trying to stay at one shift per day situation as production demand increases. That forces you otherwise to increase overhead costs substantially.
The concept that a society can benefit overall from automation is a reality.As long as those that own it can be forced to share the profits it can enable. If the owners get to keep the vast majority of them. Speaks volumes of what may come to pass. If most of the rewards of automation are kept by the owners of it. It works for awhile until there are no customers with any money.
China is well underway with automation of production. Under their system the benefits are and will be shared with the population. North America is not really ready for automation of production. Under that scenario.
In my case I buy the machines and the money they make as profit. Most is retained by our family. We call China a communist state. It may well be this. Yet at the same time it is becoming socialistic as well. With the probable exception of Hong Cong.