Harsh 2-3 shift isn't an indication of worn frictions, a sloppy slipping 2-3 shift is.
The key is the fact that you have a soft 2-3 shift cold -- check the vac lines on modulator, I'd bet one is leaking. This lowers the vac at the modulator, and low vac = hard shift.
There is usually a low temp effect -- new fluid will help.
Late shifts, or un-inteneded 4-3 downshift is an indication of valve body trouble.
1972 220D ?? miles
1988 300E 200,012
1987 300D Turbo killed 9/25/07, 275,000 miles
1985 Volvo 740 GLE Turobodiesel 218,000
1972 280 SE 4.5 165, 000 - It runs!