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  #61  
Old 01-03-2007, 01:20 PM
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The problem of foreign oil dependence could be cured, or drastically reduced, with domestic oil research and drilling. Tie that in with biodiesel production and the U.S. would no longer be beholden to unfriendly countries. But that'll never happen at this point for a number of political reasons. China via Cuba will soon be drilling off the FL Keys while domestic policy prevents the U.S. from doing the same. But I digress, that's another argument all together.

As someone with an Ag background, I'd be willing to pay for bio-d if it were within a quarter or so of dino just to support the domestically produced/American farmer aspect of it. If bio-d catches on (and it would seem to be a lot more viable option than E85), Big Oil will get themselves into the bio side of it. But at least the raw materials will be coming from the mid-West instead of the Middle East.

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  #62  
Old 01-03-2007, 01:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BillA View Post
http://blog.wired.com/cars/2007/01/texas_stays_bio.html

may be difficult to get bio in TX next year
Brilliant. The state with the most amount of diesels wants to ban biodiesel.

I smell a rat.
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  #63  
Old 01-03-2007, 01:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Craig View Post
I think you are missing the larger point, we do not have energy resources to sell to the developing world, and we are certainly not in a position to produce cost competitive consumer goods, what we do have to sell is technology. We need to take advantage of the only "value added" product we have today. How long is it going to take the U.S. to figure out that they are no longer in the manufacturing business?

Take China as an example, 1.3 billion people with double digit economic growth. They are currently getting 70% of there electrical energy from coal, and a vast amount of the country does not even have electrical power available yet. Do you want them as a technology customer, or do you want them using enormous amounts of fossil fuels in 20 years? How do you think that is going to affect the world energy market? And India is right behind them.

Do you want them all competing to buy "your" oil in 20 years, or do you think we should be selling them state of the art energy technology?

Hint: A Westinghouse Nuclear consortium just signed a deal to sell China four 1000MW nuclear power plants, and China is planning to build 20 more units between now and 2020. The U.S. congress (late 2006) just approved the sale of commercial nuclear technology to India.

I think it's a little late to start selling them "fish."
We are out of the manufacturing business when it comes to producing stuff like cars, radios, etc, etc. No doubt about it. It does seem tricky for me to be selling them the energy technology and let them do with it what they will seeing as how they would now be in a position to replicate the technology with little or no investment and then not be interested in further purchases.
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  #64  
Old 01-03-2007, 01:51 PM
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Originally Posted by aklim View Post
We are out of the manufacturing business when it comes to producing stuff like cars, radios, etc, etc. No doubt about it. It does seem tricky for me to be selling them the energy technology and let them do with it what they will seeing as how they would now be in a position to replicate the technology with little or no investment and then not be interested in further purchases.
That's a legitimate concern, especially with China, but it's a bit late to worry about it. Keep in mind that Westinghouse Nuclear is currently owned by Toshiba and the components for these plants are manufactured all over the world (very few in the U.S.). The trick is to develop the next technology faster than they can copy this one. Remember, we are not interested in selling hardware, we are selling knowledge.
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  #65  
Old 01-03-2007, 02:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Craig View Post
You are talking about 30% of U.S. oil consumption, not 30% of what is produced in the mid-east. These are very different numbers.
i am well aware of what i am talking about. and well aware of the two differences and minced no words with what i posted before.

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Originally Posted by SwampYankee View Post
The problem of foreign oil dependence could be cured, or drastically reduced, with domestic oil research and drilling.
thats not entirely true. with the known fields, we could only produce enough petroleum for a few years....20 at the most, if we continue the average 5% increase in demand per year. most of those fields are in the gulf. deep water is the most expensive to explore and test-well, not to mention the actual platforms and pumping them once they prove to be decent. several of the famed Jack2 wells were non-productive. oil too thick to pump from such depths, and several others from the same field were dry. this is Chevron's big answer to offshore drilling and the US reserves. at some point the amount of energy it takes to explore, drill, pump, transport and refine this deep water oil, will excede the amount of energy it contains.

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Originally Posted by justinperkins View Post
Brilliant. The state with the most amount of diesels wants to ban biodiesel.

I smell a rat.
i agree. the state with the city that has the WORST air quality, is wanting to ban biodiesel, but doing absolutely nothing about the rest of the pollutants. they are basically saying, "hey world, we are open for business...come build your polluting factory here." its so bad in houston that the EPA and federal organizations have stepped in and are setting mandates for Houston to clean up its air, or they will......and Houston will have to pay for it.
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  #66  
Old 01-03-2007, 03:25 PM
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Originally Posted by retx View Post
thats not entirely true. with the known fields, we could only produce enough petroleum for a few years....20 at the most, if we continue the average 5% increase in demand per year. most of those fields are in the gulf. deep water is the most expensive to explore and test-well, not to mention the actual platforms and pumping them once they prove to be decent. several of the famed Jack2 wells were non-productive. oil too thick to pump from such depths, and several others from the same field were dry. this is Chevron's big answer to offshore drilling and the US reserves. at some point the amount of energy it takes to explore, drill, pump, transport and refine this deep water oil, will excede the amount of energy it contains.
Between the Gulf and ANWR there is an estimated 10 to 40 years worth of oil, depending on whose numbers you read. That's not an insignificant amount of oil or time when you factor in the continued research and technological improvements into alternative energy sources. Obviously we can't afford to continue on with reckless abandon as far as our oil consumption goes. OTOH we could make the transition to alt energy a lot easier, and when it's a viable choice.

It's a moot point though, because it will never happen. China and Cuba will be drilling around us, though. And I don't think they're quite as concerned about the environmental effects as the U.S. would be.
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  #67  
Old 01-03-2007, 04:40 PM
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10-40 years is a very broad range. id like to see what numbers youre reading, but i guess thats equal to the 20 years im aware of. my girlfriend is a petroleum geologist here in houston. my findings arent just based on some blog i read online or the doe website. theres hard evidence that with the given increase in demand, both locally and globally, that we are living in peak oil and there is no turning back. we can not make the oil refill itself. we have to move forward on alternative energy. and not just for our cars. california is already in an energy crisis, colorado produces a lot of energy for california. west virginia has windmills in tucker county for new jersey and pennsylvania. we are beyond the need for alternative energy. coal, coalbed methane, tar/oil sands of canada, liquid, natural gas, etc,.....all of these are in very limited supply given the global demand for increased energy. we will see the effects in our lifetime. dont count on anwr, it hasnt come online and may not ever produce what big oil wants it to. look at prudhoe bay. we have an infrastucture in place for a depleting resource. its going to be a long and expensive road, but we have to work on replacing/augmenting that infrastructure before we can claim energy independence.
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  #68  
Old 01-03-2007, 04:54 PM
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Interesting reading about the future of biodiesel prices and availability
http://awakeatthewheel.net/2007/01/02/prediction-the-great-biodiesel-surplus-of-2007/

Of course this is a prediction of the future and you may or may not want to believe it, but arguments & facts are well laid-out and seems believable.


Sorry if the link has been posted before..
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  #69  
Old 01-03-2007, 08:00 PM
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Originally Posted by retx View Post
10-40 years is a very broad range. id like to see what numbers youre reading, but i guess thats equal to the 20 years im aware of. my girlfriend is a petroleum geologist here in houston. my findings arent just based on some blog i read online or the doe website. theres hard evidence that with the given increase in demand, both locally and globally, that we are living in peak oil and there is no turning back. we can not make the oil refill itself. we have to move forward on alternative energy. and not just for our cars. california is already in an energy crisis, colorado produces a lot of energy for california. west virginia has windmills in tucker county for new jersey and pennsylvania. we are beyond the need for alternative energy. coal, coalbed methane, tar/oil sands of canada, liquid, natural gas, etc,.....all of these are in very limited supply given the global demand for increased energy. we will see the effects in our lifetime. dont count on anwr, it hasnt come online and may not ever produce what big oil wants it to. look at prudhoe bay. we have an infrastucture in place for a depleting resource. its going to be a long and expensive road, but we have to work on replacing/augmenting that infrastructure before we can claim energy independence.
What about the oil wells that were "dry" in the 70s and so on only to be pumping again today? Haven't we seen enough preductions of oil running out? I believe it means oil extracted at this level of difficulty with the current equipment that is running out.
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  #70  
Old 01-04-2007, 06:41 AM
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Originally Posted by tompaah7503 View Post
Interesting reading about the future of biodiesel prices and availability
http://awakeatthewheel.net/2007/01/02/prediction-the-great-biodiesel-surplus-of-2007/
I just read the first page if that website/blog......there it states "...only 5 percent of the retail stations are owned by the oil companies or the refiners. The rest of them are owned by individual businessmen or women..." that is not an entirely true statement.....the oil companies may not own 95% of the retail stations, but a great deal of them are owned by fuel distributors....and who owns those distributors??

I am willing to bet that you will find all sorts of exclusionary clauses in the majority of retail fuel stations fuel contracts, that prevent them from selling any fuel type product other than what is supplied by the distributor.....or on basic terms....if they sell you bio-fuel, it is as if it were a competitor's product...and will cause the station to lose it's secured fuel supply....thus effectively taking that station out of the business....

In my opinion there will not be any bio-fuel sold to the general public from main stream retail fuel locations......until the major oil companies begin to sell the stuff.....and it is not in their interest to do so....

So from the quoted website....the USA will export bio-fuel to Europe rather than sell it to us US citizens.....

SB
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  #71  
Old 01-04-2007, 06:50 AM
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Originally Posted by aklim View Post
What about the oil wells that were "dry" in the 70s and so on only to be pumping again today? Haven't we seen enough preductions of oil running out? I believe it means oil extracted at this level of difficulty with the current equipment that is running out.
As I read this thread you don't want to sell bio-fuel, unless you can make a hefty profit and move the product rapidly.....

And you don't believe that there will be shortages of domestic fuel supplies.....

In my humble opinion.....that is the exact attitude that has gotten the USA into this energy problem in the first place....I just wish folks who are anti change, and do not believe the facts......would be forced to stand behind those who are interested in doing something, no matter how little, and those who support those who are trying....when you want to purchase a tank of fuel for your car or truck......

SB

And someone in this thread said that they were surprised that it has become a politically correct issue......Hah!!!
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  #72  
Old 01-04-2007, 07:20 AM
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Thumbs down Nimby

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Originally Posted by retx View Post
west virginia has windmills in tucker county for new jersey and pennsylvania
And the residents over in Tucker Co. do not want to look at them......they clear cut the trees off of tops of several hills, in order to place them there....

What irks me is the fact that those same windmills were banned from an offshore area near Nantuckett, Massachusetts, because they would interfere with the rich folks view, and their sailing yachts......so a few hillbillies, out in the country are of lesser importance than those rich folks who keep sending Ted Kennedy to the Senate.......

It's just another case of.....NIMBY.....not in my back yard.....those who consume the most want the effects of their consumption the least.....

SB
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  #73  
Old 01-04-2007, 08:18 AM
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Originally Posted by Shorebilly View Post
As I read this thread you don't want to sell bio-fuel, unless you can make a hefty profit and move the product rapidly.....

And you don't believe that there will be shortages of domestic fuel supplies.....

I just wish folks who are anti change, and do not believe the facts.
That applies to pretty much anything I sell. I don't want to sit on a product for months on end because it ties up my capital, space, etc, etc. Nobody in business wants to have a product sit for any length of time. As to profit, in business you try get as much profit as possible.

I don't disbelieve it or believe it either. I am not sure one way or the other. People have predicted the end of oil for years on end. Boy cried wolf one time too many for me to respond. Now it is a game of wait and see for me.

What facts? For every "fact" you have, there is an anti-fact to dispute it. Now you come up with a way to tell me how much oil there is in the world and we can talk. Nobody knows that to any degree. We predicted in the 70s that oil would run out in so many years. Now you tell me we have peaked even it is AFTER the time we would run out. What would you want me to believe? Last time was a "just kidding" and this time we are serious? Your boy has cried wolf for so long I don't know when it is real. Do you? What you are saying is like you knowing I have $100K in a bank and figure that if I use $2k a month, I should be done in 50 months. Well, you don't know how much I have elsewhere, what other investments, etc, etc so how would you make an accurate prediction?
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Last edited by aklim; 01-04-2007 at 03:45 PM.
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  #74  
Old 01-04-2007, 10:46 AM
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What about the oil wells that were "dry" in the 70s and so on only to be pumping again today? Haven't we seen enough preductions of oil running out? I believe it means oil extracted at this level of difficulty with the current equipment that is running out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by aklim View Post
That applies to pretty much anything I sell. I don't want to sit on a product for months on end because it ties up my capital, space, etc, etc. Nobody in business wants to have a product sit for any length of time. As to profit, in business you try get as much profit as possible.
\
its funny you say these two things in the same forum. im not being mean, but do you have any idea how or why those "dry" wells from the 60's and 70's are pumping again? what about how much they are producing? well i do. it just so happens to be the work that my girlfriend is doing now. its called co2 flooding and water injection. take an old well. remove the rig, fill it with co2 or water, concrete cap it and sit on it for a few years. the injection helps the oil loosen up from the rock, sand or shale that made it nearly impossible to extract. those wells went "dry" because they were too expensive to run for the amount of energy they produced. and thats what we are seeing today. wells that are just 10 years old becoming to expensive to operate. again....one day it will not be cost effective to explore, drill, pump, ship and refine oil. those wells didnt magically start filling up again. it has taken new techniques to gain access to that oil deep within the earth. and its a very expensive one. we are seeing the price increase from such procedures. only 2 companies are doing this. one in texas, and one based in norway.
and its odd you think that no company would want to purchase something and sit on it for any length of time before selling it. thats exactly what these companies are doing. it takes years for these "dry" wells to start pumping again. and at very little per day output too. its a game of who has the last bit of oil. if you believe there is no shortage of oil, then why would a company spend millions of dollars on the research and development of such technology, just to obtain a very minute amount of oil when they could spend a lot less and get it elsewhere. and why is offshore drilling, which happens to be THE most expensive, becoming the status quo? because we are running out of oil, both domestic and globally. sorry to sound like the boy who cried wolf...but.
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  #75  
Old 01-04-2007, 10:53 AM
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And the residents over in Tucker Co. do not want to look at them......they clear cut the trees off of tops of several hills, in order to place them there....

What irks me is the fact that those same windmills were banned from an offshore area near Nantuckett, Massachusetts, because they would interfere with the rich folks view, and their sailing yachts......so a few hillbillies, out in the country are of lesser importance than those rich folks who keep sending Ted Kennedy to the Senate.......

It's just another case of.....NIMBY.....not in my back yard.....those who consume the most want the effects of their consumption the least.....

SB
i agree. i dont think they have ruined the scenery there in tucker county. maybe its because i know how good they are for us in the long run. i see them as beacons maybe? i dont know. probably the same people who didnt want hwy33 to continue on into canaan valley because it would disrupt the valley, are the same people who didnt want the windmills. and the same types that didnt want them in massachusetts. its funny, parsons, wv didnt think twice when a natural gas company wanted to come into the area (downtown at that) and crack for some gas. poor little town saw the measly $10,000 check and gave it two thumbs up. cant wait to go back for christmas and see an ugly well, mud pit, and dirty truck tracks all over town. i guess its, true, he who has the money, has the say.

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