There's no such thing as running out. What will happen is:

• cheaply-recoverable oil will no longer be cheap to recover
• the price of oil will rise to reflect this
• the price of oil will rise to the point where synthetic oil is cheaper than 'traditional' oil
• synthetic oil will replace 'traditional' oil.

The North American continent contains enough coal and shale to produce synthetic oil sufficient for several centuries of forseeable use.

Note I say nothing about the environmental impact of such a scenario. Nor do I say anything about the intervening years where we send money to countries that we should be detonating hydrogen bombs over. But the idea that we're in danger of running out of oil is a fallacy. We're running out of cheap oil, and that happened to western europe years ago (due to gas taxes removing the 'cheap').

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1987 300SDL 411k mi and counting
2001 BMW 1150GS 29k mi and wintering

I'm not sure this can happen. Synthetic oil is synthesized from something, using energy from somewhere.

At best, it is synthesized from some renewable source molecules that is already close to the final result (so it takes less energy to get to the final product) using energy also from some renewable source. Then you put that in your tank and burn it, loosing at least 70% of the energy available in the raw fuel. The further you start from molecules near the final result, the more it energy it takes to make.

I haven't looked into it, but I suspect the source chemicals are highly refined distillates of crude oil and the energy used is almost exclusively fossil fuel based.

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'83 300DTurbo http://badges.fuelly.com/images/smallsig-us/318559.png

Broadband: more lies faster.

Just because supply will run out in a future generation doesn't mean "there's no such thing as running out".

How about you keep the "dropping hydrogen bombs" comments out of the diesel forum?

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-justin

1987 300TD, 1987 300TD
2008 R32, 2000 Passat Wagon

>200 years means never. Besides, who knows, in 200 years we may have stargates in every doorway powered by zero-point modules and we'll just teleport from bedroom to bathroom to dining room to work..

Fair 'nuff I suppose.

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1987 300SDL 411k mi and counting
2001 BMW 1150GS 29k mi and wintering

you are 100% correct.

you are nearly 100% wrong.
we are living on the razor sharp edge of cheap oil being well...cheap. not sure if you noticed the last few years...but gas/diesel is pretty pricey. my home heating bill and electric bill have been going up steadily. this is not an endless supply. we WILL run out. did you know that the Jack2 field in the gulf of mexico costs $40 just to bring one barrel to the surface? we are drilling in places we werent able to years ago, but it is costing. so why would a company who stands to make less and less per barrel, costing nearly the cost of a barrel on the market just to bring it to surface, be spending that money to drill it? because the known fields in the world are be depleted faster than we are finding new sources. my fiance is a petroleum geologist. thats where these figures come from...her actual daily job. these are not just hear say or speculations....we are paying more for fuel because we are running out. it WILL run out.

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1980 300D

The petroleum geologists back in the 1970s said we were running out. They have since found new methods to find more petroleum (that's their job). And account for inflation and oil today is cheaper than it was then.

Running out means there is no more. Not that its expensive or getting more expensive. There will be a supply of petroleum available.

Not that people shouldn't conserve - but announcing the tap is being shutoff in a few years is historicly a joke.

If your fiance is a petroleum geologist and we're running out shouldn't she be getting into another field?

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JWJ
1983 MB 300D - > 430,000 miles - Deep Blue - Bilstein Comforts - 0-60 in 24 seconds - 27MPG
1985 MB 300TD (wagon) - > 275,000 miles - Manila Beige - Thule rack - 0-60 in 18 seconds - 22 - 25MPG
Biodiesel, Mobil Delvac 1, and Viton fuel lines!

No she shouldn't go into another career field but her grandchildren will have to. If they choose to start a family. I've been a pediatric registered nurse for 16 years. When I started 16 years ago, I saw 3 or 4 kids a month in the hospital with asthma. I have always worked in major cities, Los Angeles and now SF. This year I take care of, on average 7 to 8 kids a month with asthma needing lots of oxygen and at least 2 days in the hospital to recover. No, we aren't polluting the air!

I digress, isn't it funny how NOT enough countries invest in the infinite source of SOLAR and hydro energy we have above and instead spend billions to drill and deforest below? A very limited source. But of course Exxon doesn't care after posting a $39.5 BILLION profit for 2006. How much corruption power can that kind of money buy?? I recently heard from one of my veggie oil/biodiesel friends that Texas officially banned biodiesel in 11 counties? Gee, wonder how that happened? Based on a slight 2% increase in NO2 emission? When at the same time there is 40% LESS carbon monoxide emission? It's ridiculous, this is true.
Gee I wonder who paid off those "independent scientist" $10,000 each to run "independent " studies to disprove global warming? This has been on the news. I don't believe EVERYTHING I see/hear but . . . no reason to make that up. Those stupid scientists could be bought off that easily too!
When will people care enough to be responsible stewards of this only earth? When it is too late because right now, we just want to have fun driving our big a--- SUVs!
Yes, that is what I think, sarcasm included free of charge.
Frankie

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Frankie
It never ends!
1985 300D Turbo 181K Anthracite grey, "SOPHIA"
1984 300 SD Turbo(sold)
2004 Subaru Forester XT,Cayenne red.

why is the population size taboo ?
even achieving a 'reasonable' standard for those presently alive dooms the planet
probably already doomed just by us 'big eaters'
I would be interested in conservation were the root causes addressed, not the symptoms

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Bill

'82 300SD 195K
'84 300SD 199K