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  #1  
Old 05-01-2006, 10:36 PM
Coming back from burnout
 
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Inevitably, gas/diesel will be $5/gallon in a few years..what then...

Believe it or not , my guess is it won't hit 3.50 this summer because that would cause an economic catastrophe.
However in a yearor two it will hit $4 and $5 a year or two after that.
I dont see pandemonium because people are too clever and ingenious.

I do see technical intervention, but what will it be? Will we still drive Hummers and huge Expeditions and just continue to pay?
Tiny cars? Scooters?
No drive Sunday's?
Increased telecommuting/work at home (mandatory one day per work week)
Maybe American car companies can have a huge comeback if they split GM and Ford are reorganized by the government into smaller companies each chasing an entirely new type of vehicle and fuel source. 'Gotta think positive, after all, this is the land of innovation~~~something good has to come from this!

We'll still be motoring but on a smaller scale!!

PS Why buy a new car now? The average car lasts 15 years...in 10 years it might be obsolete when new fuel programmes develop...
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  #2  
Old 05-01-2006, 10:38 PM
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i regret that i respond. hope no one else does. wrong topic. find another board for this message.
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  #3  
Old 05-01-2006, 10:47 PM
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$5 by the end of the year

Pretty sure we hit peak oil production last year . . . expect lots of increase in the immediate future!

Eric
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  #4  
Old 05-01-2006, 10:50 PM
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Oh, I will take a stab at it and suffer the consequences...

$3.50 does not cause an economic catastrophe, it has not even put a dent in the overall economy numbers or pushed inflation yet. Surveys state people still plan to continue driving.

Around that time we will start to up our own production. Currently we are pumping the oil out of other countries at alarming rates, while leaving ours greatly untouched. Iran may actually have a point about running dry in a few decades, then what are they going to do? (presuming they are still around)

Hello, China is working a deal right now with Cuba and will be drilling something like 45 miles off Florida before long.

Aren't SUV sales still down?

Look at diesel & diodiesel. Check out the latest Car & Driver, Cadillac is selling a diesel in Europe that is actually a Saab with a 1.9 turbo-diesel @ 150hp. Saturn also has a concept car with a diesel and twin-turbo's.

Oops, kids gotta get to bed no time to finish thoughts or check for accuracy/clarity.
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  #5  
Old 05-01-2006, 10:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paulem
Pretty sure we hit peak oil production last year . . . expect lots of increase in the immediate future!

Eric

I agree....the little bit of "production ceiling" that Saudi Arabia claims to have is probably a lie, they'll never "increase" their production as they claim they can (from 9mbpd to 15-16 in 2015? yeah right) and india and china keep wanting more and more oil.....so its only bound to happen very soon. China uses about 8million barrels per day of oil, India uses 4-5, we use 23-24, if either china or india manage to use HALF of what we do, things will be horrid....oh well. I'll get a diesel motorcycle and get 80 mpg on biodiesel or something.
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  #6  
Old 05-01-2006, 11:31 PM
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Please move this thread to the OD Brian, thanks.

Anyway I'll bite. I can't predict the future for everyone else, I can't even predict what I will replace the SD with next year. If fuel is $5 a gallon A C240 looks pretty good. But I'd have to see if the mileage is that much better then a W211 E320.

If fuel is $5 I will guess that resale on CDI's will be nuts, so forget that.
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  #7  
Old 05-01-2006, 11:54 PM
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Do you really want to know what will happen at $5/gallon? People will pay more for gas/diesel.

This thread is best for OD.
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  #8  
Old 05-02-2006, 12:11 AM
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i predict in 10-16 months or so oil will be @ 45-50 a bbl if the saudi fields are anything what they should be..


if it is not, then you can bet your ripped seat cushion we peaked, and will have to get an even larger majority of our oil from canada, which generously provides most of our goo..


middle east oil ranges 22-26% of import oil. with many countries starting to drill in the gulf of mexico for oil, things could get volotile.


the only reason i remotely can give the peak thing a thought, is the fact overall exxon production was actually down 3% last year. where they were scheduled to pick it up bigtime, and it still should have been up 10% even with the katrine/rita problems.

if that is the case, then 5 bux wont be too bad, and the eu will actually have to do something.

we have the technology to increase power from smaller mills to get better milage, just not the demand. hell the big 3 still has not invested in the rotory valve technology coats has...remember the hotrod artical in the 90's of that 5.0 they had. doubled he power. and still increased efficiency. something like that on a 2.0 td 4 whizzer would go a long way on a gallon of 50/50 second gen a21.


some foriegn company probably swooped it up though.
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  #9  
Old 05-02-2006, 12:17 AM
ForcedInduction
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobbywalter
i predict in 10-16 months or so oil will be @ 45-50 a bbl if the saudi fields are anything what they should be..
Umm... Oil is currently at $73/bbl.

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  #10  
Old 05-02-2006, 12:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carrameow
Maybe American car companies can have a huge comeback if they split GM and Ford are reorganized by the government into smaller companies each chasing an entirely new type of vehicle and fuel source. 'Gotta think positive, after all, this is the land of innovation~~~something good has to come from this!

PS Why buy a new car now? The average car lasts 15 years...in 10 years it might be obsolete when new fuel programmes develop...
If the government gets it's hands on it, it will be a good thing since I never placed much hope in manufacturing and the government will ensure it will die.

I don't buy brand new because I don't want to take the first hit of depreciation. This way I can mod any car I want without worrying about warranty. So, what is your solution? Wait for 10-15 years when the new program comes then buy it? What if a new program comes out in 2 years after that? Can't keep chasing the fuel programs.
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  #11  
Old 05-02-2006, 12:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aklim
I don't buy brand new because I don't want to take the first hit of depreciation. This way I can mod any car I want without worrying about warranty. So, what is your solution? Wait for 10-15 years when the new program comes then buy it? What if a new program comes out in 2 years after that? Can't keep chasing the fuel programs.
No you can't. My 210 was nearly ten years old when I got it, but cost less than one-fourth of its new price, not counting inflation. That extra 30K over ten years will buy a hell of a lot of fuel, even at extremely inflated prices. And now the depreciation has slowed, but it's still more than the difference between fuel cost of my car and the most efficient ride available.

Not that I want to modify a daily-driver, mind you. I save that sort of thing for toys, even though I am my own warranty, as are you.
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  #12  
Old 05-02-2006, 12:39 AM
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Zero
 
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So the smart thing to do at this point...since it seems that oil will go past what it currantly is...is to buy oil futures.


Its like a slam dunk, might as well make some money off the up swing. Then maybe you will catch gold or silver at a good price after you are done with oil.

If the economy goes nuts and inflation starts up, gold is a good place to be...
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  #13  
Old 05-02-2006, 03:55 AM
Coming back from burnout
 
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You can run but you cant hide

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hatterasguy
Please move this thread to the OD Brian, thanks.
Sure hide the thread, life will go on like usual, this is just a dream and tomorrow, Gas will be $2.00 a gallon like back in 2002.
Sometimes I think this is Bad Dream and I will wake up and everything will be the same again.
This is Diesel Discussion related. I plan to be still working on Cars, specifically my 300D, because I think I would be goofy to buy a new car right now.
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  #14  
Old 05-02-2006, 09:06 AM
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How is this hiding the thread? Just the mods puting it to a section they feel is more appropriate.
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  #15  
Old 05-02-2006, 09:12 AM
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Your children's children will be driving 2-cylinder cars, and will be happy to have them.

Don't forget we are already in 3-cylinder-land, with the Geo Metro.

At some point dino fuel will be reserved for long-haul truckers, with the rest of us restricted to electric cars powered by nuclear electricity production. Or if we're lucky, fusion electricity production.

You'll see a lot more motor scooters and bicycles.

Basically, the one-world global economy is all about making the serfs of the world all function at the same level. So China/India serfs need to be pulled up a bit and the American/European serfs reduced in lifestyle.

Progress on this has certainly been made in my lifetime.

People will gawk at Lincoln Navigators and Hummers in museums and laugh the same way we laugh at Edsel Fords today.



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