Best Guess at Diesel, Gas Prices in 2011? - Page 2 - PeachParts Mercedes-Benz Forum

Carrameow · #16 05-21-2008, 11:01 AM

GREAT ANSWER

Quote:

Originally Posted by KylePavao

I am really not sure...up or down? But here is the thing;

Many economics professors I've talked to cite investment as the reason, and not a lack of supply. Many see this as a bubble that may likely pop sooner than later.

Sure, the days of "cheap" oil may be over for now; but the good news of rising traditional crude prices in the Middle East and Elsewhere is that it makes other oil types like shale and sands profitable to pump and refine.

I remember reading that the oil tied up in Canadian sands equates to roughly 1.5 times the current worlds supply, and shale oil throughout the Baltic Nations and Russia have been largely unexplored. Why? Pumping 80-95 dollar a barrel oil out of sands or shale was not profitable when 35 and 40 dollar a barrel conventional crude existed. Now, with oil at 126+ dollars a barrel, it is.

In my mind, the only good thing about these rising crude prices is that it gives us Americans a reason to concern and discover new ways of transporting ourselves, and also ways to extract petroleum from other sources. I think we all agree we'd rather fork over 100 dollars a barrel to our Canadian neighbors and those in Europe instead of paying the cartels of the Middle East to suck us dry.

My 2 cents

LUVMBDiesels · #17 05-21-2008, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KylePavao

I am really not sure...up or down? But here is the thing;

Many economics professors I've talked to cite investment as the reason, and not a lack of supply. Many see this as a bubble that may likely pop sooner than later.

Sure, the days of "cheap" oil may be over for now; but the good news of rising traditional crude prices in the Middle East and Elsewhere is that it makes other oil types like shale and sands profitable to pump and refine.

I remember reading that the oil tied up in Canadian sands equates to roughly 1.5 times the current worlds supply, and shale oil throughout the Baltic Nations and Russia have been largely unexplored. Why? Pumping 80-95 dollar a barrel oil out of sands or shale was not profitable when 35 and 40 dollar a barrel conventional crude existed. Now, with oil at 126+ dollars a barrel, it is.

In my mind, the only good thing about these rising crude prices is that it gives us Americans a reason to concern and discover new ways of transporting ourselves, and also ways to extract petroleum from other sources. I think we all agree we'd rather fork over 100 dollars a barrel to our Canadian neighbors and those in Europe instead of paying the cartels of the Middle East to suck us dry.

My 2 cents

Only trouble with this bubble is that they are controlling the amount of oil going through the system now.

Here is a quote from NY Times article (not the BEST source, I admit, but...)

"Diesel production was actually up for the first few months of this year compared with the period a year earlier, Mr. Planting said. But the outlook is cloudy. With gasoline prices high, demand has fallen; for March, April and the beginning of May of this year, inventories were running nearly 10 percent higher than a year earlier, according to the Energy Department.
Mr. Goldstein’s interpretation is that refineries have thus decided to process slightly less crude oil than they would otherwise have used, which would result in less production of diesel as well. It is as if sirloin had become so expensive that demand dropped, so farmers raised fewer cows, reducing the supply of hamburger — but hamburger remained as popular as ever."

As the speculators manipulate the base price the refiners need to pay, the refiners start monkeying around with the supply to keep the consumer price up. Soon once demond goes down, the supply will follow and we WILL have gas/Diesl lines around the block. The only way this will end is if the economy tanks so badly that nobody can afford gasoline/Diesel and stops driving. If demand crashes instead of holdinng steady or declining slowly, the price HAS to come down.

I just don't want to live in that world

Carrameow · #18 05-21-2008, 02:29 PM

I am going to try my best to circumvent them. I will carpool, ride a bike, move close to work, run veggie, telecommute, or just stay home. We dieseheads are resourceful ans stubborn. i feel bad for all those auto industry suppliers, dealers, machine shops, part suppliers that are going to hurt for this.

TheDon · #19 05-21-2008, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ForcedInduction

oh look.. an Impala in front of the bus

KylePavao · #20 05-21-2008, 02:53 PM

The speculators are the ones driving up the prices. All we can hope for is that the free market will work out these problems as it has in the past. Our current prices, adjusted backwards for inflation, are not even close to those being payed back in the 70's and 80's.

All we can hope for is, like I said, that other ways of extracting petroleum become more profitable, and therefore come onto the market.

Middlle east countries subsidize fuel prices for their own people, as does Venezuala and China...this sort of "price fixing" makes it difficult for prices reflect the true market value. 30 cent and 19 cent gasoline and diesel in Venezuala, Kuwait, and the mid east means we pay for their subsidization, as does any country without home petroleum reserves.

A close alliance with Canada could allow us to do the same, or development of more efficient growth of bio fuel crops.

Brazil is almost completely self sufficient, using sugar cane for all of it's fuel. Maybe more laxed trading policies with Cuba would benefit both parties; their favorable conditions for sugar gain growth would give them another "cash crop" that could help to boost their economy, if their cooperate.

American farmers are some of the most efficient in the world; yet we do not utilize all of our acreage, nor is there enough incentive for more Americans farm...In the 19th century farmers equated to 70-80% of total workforce, today it is around 4% or less (due to mechanization mostly). Making farming more profitable could allow us to utilize the millions of acres of farmland, and possibly become self sufficient. Like the commercials say, if we can free Europe, put a man on the moon, we can solve this problem as well. Different petroleum sources, bio-fuels, and creation of corn crops solely made for production of bio-fuels, in my mind, will eventually have us remove our b&lls from the proverbial vice the OPEC nations have them in.

Cooperation with our neighbors is key, as is diversion of the resources being squandered in foreign wars.

arcticathlon · #21 05-21-2008, 03:37 PM

I have been toying with the idea of making BioDiesel for personal use and then for possible resale. With diesel costing so much now, the profit margins make it intriguing. Of course at a certain point i would probably need to get a license and charge tax, but i could also just stay below the limit that would require that.

Hatterasguy · #22 05-21-2008, 04:03 PM

About $2.50-$3 a gallon once this bubble bursts.

I expect it to go pop in the next 12-18 months.

Until that point prices will continue to rise.

turbobenz · #23 05-21-2008, 04:57 PM

In 2011 diesel will cost 10-15 dollars a gallon. It may also be rationed. We may be in a price bubble, and like all bubbles it will pop. But it will still keep rising. Right now crude is rising incredibly fast. Three days ago it was $125 a barrel, now it is $133.

Tar sands wont save us. Sure theres lots of it! But its expensive and requires lots of energy to produce. Right now were on the top of the sands and eventualy we will have to dig to the heavier, ****tier sands. And it takes incredible amounts of fresh water and will take more when production is kicked up.

Oil shale is a big joke. You take a bunch of rocks under ground that have some hydrocarbons in them. You stick giant heating elements in the ground and try to heat the earth to 700 degrees. This takes years and in the end requires 300kw/hr a barrel of crude. On top of that it takes so much fresh water that to produce even 1mbd you would need to tap a source of fresh water equivalent to the entire Colorado river (what happens to all the waste, crude contaminated, carcinogenic water?).

Coal to liquids will help us. And they say we have 150 years of the stuff! heres the catch: At current use rates. If we begin to use it for coal to liquids, it will last 2 decades at most. And even that is expensive compared to light crude, just like tar sands.

Biofuels are a complete joke. I dont know the numbers, but I think as of now biofuels make up .5% of our fuel in the US. And even that .5 is driving food costs up. And brazil does not make all its own fuel from biosources. They make half and have destroyed rainforests in the process.

Diesel will be over $6 a gallon this summer if not $7. Wait till winter fuel and heating oil kicks in!

Carrameow · #24 05-21-2008, 05:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hatterasguy

About $2.50-$3 a gallon once this bubble bursts.

I expect it to go pop in the next 12-18 months.

Until that point prices will continue to rise.

Want to make a bet? Hatteras Guy i consider you a buddy. How about a set of 1/4" metric csockets

Hatterasguy · #25 05-21-2008, 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carrameow

Want to make a bet? Hatteras Guy i consider you a buddy. How about a set of 1/4" metric csockets

Whats your bet? And by what date?

I bet it will play out exactly as I predict. A small set of 1/4 metric sockets would be fine.

I guess lets bump this thread back up next May and see who owes who some sockets.

DieselGrrl · #26 05-21-2008, 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carrameow

So my guess is going to be 6.60 a gallon. [/B]

ahem, im at $4.99 locally, over $5 in the city

$6.60 is coming sooner than you think

Hatterasguy · #27 05-21-2008, 07:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by turbobenz

In 2011 diesel will cost 10-15 dollars a gallon. It may also be rationed. We may be in a price bubble, and like all bubbles it will pop. But it will still keep rising. Right now crude is rising incredibly fast. Three days ago it was $125 a barrel, now it is $133.

If the bubble bursts which it will than the price will have to come down, unless something crazy happens to reduce supply.

Because the dollar is weak people moved to commodities in order to hedge; thats why gold is nuts and oil. The reason the dollar is weak is because the Fed has lowered interest rates like crazy and printed money like crazy to try and boost up the housing market. IE they are working hard to keep us out of a recession. Now that the housing market is pretty much at the bottom the fed should start to rise interest rates in the second half of this year. Than they just need to stop printing money and we should be in a good position. The housing market should be on a strong upswing by 2011-2013, this will carry the economy along with it.

2008-09 are going to be tough, we are at or near the bottom. Its impossible to say exactly where the bottom is until we start the upswing.

All the smart money is out of oil, now you have the late to the game speculators. They are betting it goes up a bit more since this time of year is when its at its height. When the bubble does pop its really going to pop because demand is less so stock will be up. It will probably drop to $60-$70 a barrel before settling around $80ish.

Reduce supply and demand will drive the price up, but that is a much slower process. What we are seeing now is nothing but a bubble. Think of it as CA real estate in late 2005.

Note: all bets are off in the event of a terrorist attack or a war.