Cars and the Future - Page 2 - PeachParts Mercedes-Benz Forum

babymog · #16 01-15-2016, 06:16 PM

Calling Jeremy Clarkson, calling Jeremy Clarkson, ...

Reminds me of when we were working on the new W124 and I had some Engineers from Mercedes visiting. This was in the fantastic NMSL days of 55mph.
I asked the Engineers (with a smile) how they liked our 55mph freeways. One responded "how do you stay awake?".

patbob · #17 01-16-2016, 12:17 AM

I'm just not seeing this take-a-taxi-everywhere world. It already exists, and isn't cost effective in most parts of the country. In order to make it work, you'd have to reduce the trip cost and the wait times that exist in the current system. Those two are mutually exclusive -- there's no way to reduce one without increasing the other.

Self-driving cars are not going to be a panacea here -- yes, there will be a savings on driver labor, but there will also be an increase in maintenance costs over the long term due to the increased complexity of the system -- it will take more labor, from techs that require a greater amount of training and therefore charge more, to diagnose the odd behaviors that the cars will evolve.

And on top of all that, you're paying someone's profit margin on providing the taxi service.

So no, I'm not seeing this take-a-taxi-everywhere world as being a cheaper way of life, and most people opt for the cheaper way of life. The amusing thing is, I actually want this world to happen though. I used to be able to take public transit, and I really liked being able to use that time instead of having to constantly pay attention to the butt of the car in front of me. The day the Johnny Cab can take me to work for $3*, is the day I stop driving to/from work. Ain't gonna ever happen.

* I ran the numbers once -- I've averaged $0.10 per mile for commuting in the Benz over the last 50,000 miles, which includes the cost of the vehicle + fuel + maintenance. Work is now less than 10 miles away, so I tripled that cost to account for professional maintenance instead of self maintenance, and to add a profit margin for 'ol Johnny himself. $0.10 * 10 miles * 3 = $3

sloride · #18 01-16-2016, 10:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by babymog

CNG is not a trial at all, it is here. Can't speak for Chicago specifically, but new bus sales have moved heavily into alternative fuels, as have some heavy truck. The largest part of the mix is CNG, some school buses in LP, and a growing mix of city buses (aka: Transit) are electric and electric-hybrid (series hybrid, the right way to do it vs. the feel-good but do little parallel hybrid that is most cars). Some of the electric transit buses are designed to recharge at stops through an under-street grid, which some cities are installing today. Oddly enough, this seems to be a perfect place for autonomous vehicles, but transit bus drivers are heavily unionized, which probably would mean that even if driverless, a driver would be required to sit there all day. Autonomous truck driving is also on its way, at this point Freightliner is successfully testing their truck (in Nevada IIRC), with a driver present. It is fairly simple to have a truck back into a designated dock at a designated terminal, most of that is already computerized at distribution centers, swap trailers and drive on.

For OTR trucks the move is slower, but my conversations with EPA lead me to the conclusion that it is when, not if, they are forced to CNG. This lowers the power and fuel mileage/range of the trucks, increases the weight of the truck 1800lbs, increases fueling time, increases the cost of maintenance (special bays or outside only if the truck carries CNG), means more trucks on the road for the same amount of cargo-miles and more rubber tires in the landfills etc., but is still intended to be the mandate for future rulings (coming soon). It does create jobs though, ... (retreat from opinion phase).

The only other hybrid system currently in use (not widely) for refuse trucks and proposed for transit buses is a hydraulic accumulator system which stores energy from frequent stops to use launching, interesting but not highly competitive.

With fuel prices so low, I'm pretty sure that the EPA will feel that then need to force replacements of older vehicles (including trucks) with more heavy-handed rules, and they have the power to do so under this administration, I expect new rulings soon.

I agree CNG is probably the most perfect fit for an urban transit vehicle. Clean burning, fuel delivered by pipeline instead of over the road tanker transport, produced here, and more cost effective than diesel. You want to guess why they wont use it then? But back to the original topic, what do you think a vehicle that is not owned by the driver will look like, or be driven like. I would not care to share upkeep expenses with someone that I do not know.

Ceristimo · #19 01-16-2016, 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sloride

But back to the original topic, what do you think a vehicle that is not owned by the driver will look like, or be driven like. I would not care to share upkeep expenses with someone that I do not know.

The cars will be owned by a few big companies. You'll summon them from your smart phone, and they will come pick you up and drop you off to wherever you need to go.
The cost of maintenance is part of the bill you'll receive for using that service, and the cars can drive themselves to a depot owned by its owner at night to get maintenance done.

Just thinking about how creepy Google will get when people use their self-driving car and Google gets to record you, listen to you and know exactly where you go, when you go and why you go, makes me uncomfortable. Big-data would love everyone to have a self-driving car.

JB3 · #20 01-16-2016, 09:18 PM

Im not bothered at all, in fact i find the march of progress invigorating. By the time im ready to retire, self driving technology will be reliable and widespread. Ill be able to doze my way around town by punching in coordinates.

If i feel the need to enjoy driving pleasure i will unveil one of my collection of tottering old fart relics to the amusement of my borg grandchildren who will be tweeting with their frontal lobes alone

Whenever i think about the average car owner, im remided of Vincent Gallos hilarious rant against "shifter cars" in the otherwise mediocre movie Buffalo 66