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  #46  
Old 07-30-2017, 12:33 PM
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Originally Posted by t walgamuth View Post
Interesting discussion.

One comment. The electric cars in 1900 had about the same range as today's Tesla I believe. How can that be with all the advances in battery tech?
Maybe their blue tooth devices were more efficient back then. Along with fewer air bags, OB computers, lack of a heating system, side impact pillars to lug around, etc. An economy vehicle today pushes 3000#. Those electric one step above a horse drawn sulky was maybe 500#, less battery.
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  #47  
Old 07-30-2017, 01:17 PM
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Originally Posted by sloride View Post
Maybe their blue tooth devices were more efficient back then. Along with fewer air bags, OB computers, lack of a heating system, side impact pillars to lug around, etc. An economy vehicle today pushes 3000#. Those electric one step above a horse drawn sulky was maybe 500#, less battery.
But still....
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  #48  
Old 07-30-2017, 01:52 PM
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The statistic I would like to see is how many families with Tesla or EV ditch their gas cars entirely. One of the financial articles said Tesla families already have 3-4 cars before buying the Tesla. Until they get rid of their gas cars, it's just a toy for the affluent.

Dkr.
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  #49  
Old 07-30-2017, 02:35 PM
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Cars replaced the horse and buggy, and the airplane replaced trains and ships for long haul transit, because both of those solutions were vastly superior to their predecessors. The means were introduced in the free market, and no one had to be paid subsidies to use the new method in place of the older method.

Electric cars are a step backwards due to the amount of energy stored on board in a battery vs a tank of fuel. Until someone can figure out a battery with the energy density and charge time equivalent to transferring ~20 gallons of gasoline or diesel fuel, it will never take off in the free market.

Remove the subsidy, and let the free market operate, and electric cars will die, because people will not support an inferior solution. It already happened in Hong Kong this year when they removed their subsidy. Sales literally dropped to zero.

I also still have major heartburn carrying a 200-600 V dc bus around in my car. I know what happens when 535 V dc at about 750 A lets go. I have personally witnessed it in our equipment at work. I want no part of this in my vehicle.
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  #50  
Old 07-30-2017, 03:32 PM
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Look @ the Seba video!

I like the old diesel Mercedes as much as any one, but the writing is on the wall.

Economic factors, not subsidies are what Seba is talking about. A superior product, e.g. a vehicle with 18 moving parts and a 95% efficient motor will supplant a polluting breakdown prone expensive to maintain product as surely as E-mail is supplanting snail mail. (Tho i miss the snail mail and still use it some!)

Seba maintains that battery prices and storage capacity are also on an exponential curve, and he projects that at a certain point electric vehicles with sufficient range will become cheaper that the current gas guzzler.

You can't have it both ways. Either batteries do not have sufficient energy density, or they are an explosion hazard greater than 20 gallons of gasoline in a tank.

In the 1970's, fossil and power plant proponents said that U.S. electricity consumption was increasing at 7% a year. Someone did the math, and concluded that to maintain that growth rate, by the year 2600, the U.S. would be a solid shaft of power plants extending outward into space at the speed of light! Such is the power of exponential growth.

Surely the wealthy, and those of us who can find sufficient WVO, will continue to drive the classic old cars, such as our beloved Mercedes diesels. But for ordinary folks, EV's and solar power will be the only practical and affordable choice.
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  #51  
Old 07-30-2017, 04:30 PM
dkr dkr is offline
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Apparently, in winter temps Tesla looses 40% of battery capacity. This is due to the battery technology and cannot be remedied. What will happen in a major storm? Will there be tons of people stranded due to road conditions that get hypothermia due to not being able to run the heater for extended periods in their car? It's a serious question. It would appear also that any winter-related grid outages would literally take out an entire town's transportation since nobody will have as much energy stored as an ICE and the battery capacity will be diminished. Solar would not be much of a help in this scenario.

Tesla Battery Range in Sub-Zero and Snowy Conditions
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/cold-weather-range-loss

Funny, if either of those scenarios played out, the only thing that would remedy the problems would be better weather or a fuel-powered generator.

I wonder if we old diesel Mercedes owners should help our Tesla neighbors from freezing.

Dkr.
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  #52  
Old 07-30-2017, 05:34 PM
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Another factor in all of this: those who chose to drive certain vehicles such as muscle cars, sports cars, mini vans, large SUV's, jeeps, large 4x4 trucks etc.... there are MANY people in the USA that drive these types of vehicles. The muscle car is a huge part of American automobile history, and it's the reason why the corvette, mustang, challenger, and camaro still sell extremely well. Think of how incredibly short the battery life would be on a bigger 4x4 vehicle. Also, EV's aren't cheap compared to a used Japanese beater for the daily driver. The fact that you can go to the wrecking yard to replace parts automatically makes this more favorable than any EV to many people. Sure, some folks will use EV's as daily drivers like what you see now, but the majority of vehicles on the road will be powered by gasoline in some way. Everyone here loves diesel cars, and the good news is there are a surprising amount of people in the world who love them too, which is a comforting thought. Some day, they might disappear, but not in our lifetimes.
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  #53  
Old 07-30-2017, 09:30 PM
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Originally Posted by TimFreeh View Post
I don't think you're going to have to wait anywhere near 20 years. I believe currently the percentage of EV sales in the USA is like 2/10ths of a percent of overall car sales?

EV's are 90% efficient? Well OK maybe after you generate the electricity to store in the Li-on batteries. The conventional power plant that generates the electricity to charge the batteries in the remote polluting Li-on vehicle operates at 30-40% thermal efficiency. The thermal efficiency of a modern CDI engine is exactly the same as a commercial thermal power plant. As I recall there is a 6-8% transmission loss when you send juice through a commercial grid, throw in the 10% loss in converting the juice in onboard Li-on batteries into work through the AC induction motor and you're looking at a 16%-18% overall loss in the remote polluting LI-on vehicle compared to using a fossil fuel to generate the power on-site in a combustion engine.

I always laugh when I see Teslas at dealerships proudly sporting their "ZERO EMISSION VEHICLE" license plate tags. It's total nonsense.

I only made it about 2 minutes into the video, I've kind of got things to do today but I did start laughing when the guy in the shirt and tie showed how A&TT commissioned a study to project the market for cell phone usage in 1985. The 'experts' at some sort of think tank came back with 900K projected market in 2000 and the actual number was 120 million when 2000 rolled around.

Kind of exactly reminds me of where we are today with all the "experts" predicting an explosion of EV sales due to their "disruptive" technology. I'm guessing these experts will also be off by a factor of 120% or maybe more.

Anybody want to make a guess at the overall percentage of EV sales in say 3 years? I'm going to say 1% maybe? If we get there it will be a 5 fold increase in EV sales.

Disruptive? Really?
I'm not sure if I fully agree that Tesla's game is total nonsense. Elon Musk is certainly a salesman on multiple dimensions, but I think I might be able to get on board with that claim, or close to it. My relatives have a Chevy Volt they charge from solar panels on their roof, and they run a yearly net surplus where their city pays them for power added back to the grid. Sure, it does cost money (they have payment plans, it's like a mini-mortgage) to install them but the price with subsidies has been on a downward trend.

I wouldn't have bought my 300D if Atlanta had public transit that was more accessible to various areas. The MARTA is good, but Atlanta is quite a sprawl. It's tough to live sustainably with how our society is set up in America, but I think it is doable through careful planning.

Go EV - solar is the future! As for old diesels ... metal rusts, and time moves on, for better or for worse. These will be as old as Model T in 50-60 years.

Warmth,
H
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  #54  
Old 07-31-2017, 12:21 AM
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Great discussion, everyone has some excellent points!

I posted the "Clean Disruption" video as food for thought; nobody can predict the future 100%. Almost nobody 50 years ago predicted we would all be communicating by computer and I Phone. Or Moore's law. My crystal ball is partly cloudy on a good day.

Obviously we aren't quite where Dr Seba sees us going yet. Practical affordable battery storage cannot yet match fossil fuels for range. If the power to charge those batteries is drawn from yesterday's antiquated fossil and nuclear powered grid, the reduction in pollution is marginal. Modern EV's still cost more than that cheap Toyota.

If an asteroid hits the Earth, or the Orange Menace runs out of White House cronies to savage, and pushes the proverbial button, we won't be driving anything in the future.

As for the addiction of some folks to "muscle cars", it's hard for an I.C.E. to match the low end torque of an electric motor. Few have the 0 - 60 of a Tesla. But some would miss the flatulent tones of the old muscle cars. EV's will need to be fitted with an auxilliary sound system to overcome that shortcoming.

Dr. Seba is an economist, and is extrapolating existing trends. While early adopters currently need a few bucks to play with, and have fossil vehicles for backup, and need to be wary of freezing in a blizzard etc. etc., Seba and others believe these limitations will be overcome in the very near future. House batteries like the powerwall will be charged by the solar panels on the roof, and could be made interchangeable with car batteries, and changed out as quickly as filling a tank.

Enough solar power lands on the U.S. in 20 minutes or so to power the entire country for a year. Already utility scale battery storage systems are going on line in a few places. Meanwhile millions of years of fossil fuels are being used up in a few centuries. The long term prospects for endless cheap oil are limited. There is only so much readily accessible uranium. If climate deniers are correct, we need to be saving what's left of those fuels for the coming ice age, and use all the renewable we can right now.

The best of the fossil vehicles, such as our Mercedes, will be valuable antiques and toys for the wealthy. The rest of them will be melted down and come back as wind turbines!

Here's the link to "Clean Disruption" again. It's a fascinating watch.

www.youtube.com/watch? v=Kxryv2XrnqM
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  #55  
Old 07-31-2017, 09:09 AM
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Originally Posted by cleeves View Post
I'm not sure if I fully agree that Tesla's game is total nonsense. Elon Musk is certainly a salesman on multiple dimensions, but I think I might be able to get on board with that claim, or close to it. My relatives have a Chevy Volt they charge from solar panels on their roof, and they run a yearly net surplus where their city pays them for power added back to the grid. Sure, it does cost money (they have payment plans, it's like a mini-mortgage) to install them but the price with subsidies has been on a downward trend.

I wouldn't have bought my 300D if Atlanta had public transit that was more accessible to various areas. The MARTA is good, but Atlanta is quite a sprawl. It's tough to live sustainably with how our society is set up in America, but I think it is doable through careful planning.

Go EV - solar is the future! As for old diesels ... metal rusts, and time moves on, for better or for worse. These will be as old as Model T in 50-60 years.

Warmth,
H
I never said the Tesla game is total nonsense. I've driven a Model S and it's an amazing ride. The things you can do with traction and ESP when you can change the torque on any drive wheel in the millisecond range is certainly unique and it's borderline disruptive technology for people that are interested in racing and fast driving. The Tesla driving experience is potentially disruptive for multimillionaires that are looking for a novel 4th or 5th car and Tesla has absolutely created and flourished in that market.

What I said was the "ZERO EMISSION" license plate tags you see on Tesla's at the dealership is total nonsense. Unless of course you charge the Tesla entirely via solar panels. By the way I've got a 9.4 Kw/hr solar array at my house, its been installed since 2011 and my current electric bill is -$933 dollars. I've lived the solar experience for the last 6 years and I think I've got a pretty good idea about how much power you can generate from a solar array (using todays technology) and I've done it long-term. I've got 6 years of daily solar generation data for my location.

Ever done the math on how long it would take to fully charge the batteries on a Model S using purely solar power from my 9.46 KH/hr solar array in Delaware in January or February? I'll be happy to provide the answer but as a guy that is convinced the solar and EV's are the future I'd kind of like to know if you've got a ballpark grasp on how many hours, assuming average winter weather, it would take for me to recharge an electric car with a 60 KW/HR battery pack if I totally dedicated the output of my array to the task.
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  #56  
Old 07-31-2017, 12:09 PM
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Originally Posted by TimFreeh View Post
Ever done the math on how long it would take to fully charge the batteries on a Model S using purely solar power from my 9.46 KH/hr solar array in Delaware in January or February? I'll be happy to provide the answer but as a guy that is convinced the solar and EV's are the future I'd kind of like to know if you've got a ballpark grasp on how many hours, assuming average winter weather, it would take for me to recharge an electric car with a 60 KW/HR battery pack if I totally dedicated the output of my array to the task.
I don't know the math that is used, nor do I know much about solar, but the way you asked the question causes me to hazard a guess at a week or more to charge that 60 KW/HR battery in that weather. However, here in the desert of So. Cal, I imagine that same array would cut the charge time in half (very few cloudy days here even in the dead of winter). Again, just a wild guess.......Rich
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  #57  
Old 07-31-2017, 12:38 PM
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I wonder how much wind energy could be harvested off the coast of Delaware?
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  #58  
Old 07-31-2017, 02:35 PM
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That's the wrong question. The right question is how much will it cost to harness a kW of wind energy? How reliable will it be? How much supply is there? And what will it take to deliver it to a market segment? And can all of this be done competitively with current market rates?

Unfortunately, that's where most of these alternative energies fail and why there will be minimal adoption for some time.

The other issue is that alt. energy is meant to be decentralized and in order for that to really work, you need to remove a lot of power structures (.gov) as well as dismantle a bunch of the grid system which would logically cause massive cost increases for those still using the grid.

Dkr.
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  #59  
Old 07-31-2017, 11:07 PM
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Two-stroke scooters are far more the cause of urban pollution in cities of Spain and Italy, than diesels, also don't forget how many homes are heated still with heating oil there. Even most of the power plants in Europe are located near or in many cases right in the city, and they burn coal. So, blaming diesels is just easy, but it's not going to solve any pollution.
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  #60  
Old 08-01-2017, 04:26 AM
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The Buggy Whip Lobby, Subsidies, and Jay Leno's 1909 Baker

The stranglehold of the oil lobby is a possible monkey wrench to the widespread adoption of solar power and electric cars. The buggy whip lobby in 1900 wasn't quite as powerful. With the tweeting cheeto and his corporate swamp, who knows what efforts will be made to roll back the clock. Tho he did say he would put solar panels on his wall. And we know he never lies!

Jay Leno has a 1909 Baker, and he says he gets about 100 mile range, and can go 20 -25 m.p.h. It was the car of choice for women, and charging stations were common.

There is a website for solar energy by zip. Clicking on a random spot in Delaware 39.6 N, 75.8 E, showed 4.68 hours of sun per day (averaged over a year). An 8 Kw system would yield about 10,000 Kw Hrs per year. I think there are other solar calculators that will give a breakdown by month, but if you are grid tied and have net metering, the excess in June will balance out the deficiency in December. 10 K Kw hrs would charge a 60 Kw hr battery about 160 times. (probably a week or so in February is about right.) You might need more panels if you also want to run your house. A quick check of AltEstore.com showed panels as low as 59 cents a watt. So for about 5 grand, you could get enough panels to charge the car every two days. Most solar panels come with a 20 -25 year warranty but last indefinitely (some of the originals from the 60's and 70's are still producing). That would be about 6000 full charges over 20 years. If you drive 200 miles per charge, that is about 1.2 million miles of driving for an investment of $5000, maybe $10,000 if we throw in inverters, chargers, roof mounting systems, wires, meters, etc. If we assume a comparable vehicle gets 30 MPG, and petrol or diesel remain at $2.50 a gallon for the next 20 years (not likely), the fuel cost to drive 1.2 million miles would be about $100,000. This is not counting oil changes, exhaust systems, and a lot of other maintenance which is largely absent with electric vehicles. And you will likely still have a functional PV system at the end of the 20 years!

Wind and solar power are getting cheaper every day, while fossil power is trending upward over the long run. Less than 1% of the land area of the U.S. could generate enough solar power to run the whole country in all forms of energy. A 2012 study by Stanford University and the U. of Delaware(!) determined that the theoretical maximum wind power that could be generated on earth would be 250 terawatts, 11 times global consumption of all forms of energy. This would mean windmills everywhere and is obviously not practical. A Scientific American article (3/12/15) projected that wind could power 35% of the U.S. by 2050.

Just as the early computers were expensive toys for affluent geeks, the first modern electric cars are costly, tho it is a much simpler technology, and will soon be cheaper than the Rube Goldberg devices with the myriad of moving parts we all know and love. The 18 or so moving parts in an EV will be available at Autozone.

Not factored into the fossil economy is not only climate chaos, but an estimated 200,000 people per year in the U.S. alone, who die an average of 10 years early due to fossil pollution. A recent MIT study (news.mit.edu) details what sectors contribute to this problem. 53,000 deaths are attributed to pollution from the transportation sector, and 52,000 to power generation. In our "free" market system, such costs are externalized and do not factor in to corporate costs or profits. If anything they probably own the hospitals and morgues. How much does fossil power really cost?

At the risk of being politically incorrect, i would say that in view of these factors, it is a good thing that the gub'mint has thrown a few crumbs of subsidy to jump start cleaner energy. A fraction of the subsidies to fossil and nuclear, tho; think depletion allowances, public lands leased for pennies on the dollar, tax breaks, off shoring, eminent domain for pipelines that nobody wants, etc. etc. etc.

From what Dr. Seba is saying, we are now at or near a point where economics alone are taking over, and his projections are based on pure economics and technological advance, not subsidies. Meanwhile, the Chinese installed more solar in 2016 alone than the total installed capacity in the U.S.! They are making China great again, and leaving us behind.

The tragedy is that we have lost decades. In the early 1900's, solar water heaters were common in Florida and California. In Barry Commoner's 1979 book,"The Politics of Energy" he referenced a study that photovoltaic cells could have been brought down to 10 cents a watt with a sufficient investment to jump start mass production. In the 1990's, GM built a fleet of electric cars, the EV-1, which they leased, then recalled and crushed over the strenuous protests of the customers. See the film "Who killed the electric car".

I could go on and on, but i have to get up tomorrow and change the transmission fluid and filter on my '82 300D! Good night.
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