Kiss the Good Times Goodbye - Page 2 - PeachParts Mercedes-Benz Forum

sloride · #16 11-13-2017, 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by torsionbar

Not anytime soon. As machines and electronics become more complicated, it takes greater and greater skill to diagnose and repair them. Why do you think skilled auto mechanics today earn $100k+ salaries, while half a century ago they were lower-middle working class?

The fact is, autonomous cars will be a convenience to some, just as buses, trains, and other public transportation is today, but it will never replace the human driving experience. There's a reason why Porsche, Ferrari, and plenty of other sports cars sell for exorbitant prices - the excitement of piloting a high performance machine is in demand, and can never be replicated by autonomous vehicles.

Did microwave "tv dinner" meals spell the end of the culinary arts? Plenty of folks thought so when they were first invented. Now we can sit back and laugh at what a silly idea that was. Sure, certain busy segments of population live on microwave meals, but for the rest of us, cooking is actually fun, and the experience of eating a hand prepared meal with fresh natural ingredients simply cannot be replicated by a microwave oven.

I would pay to see a motor sport that has no rules on engine size, fuel delivery, or fuel used, with remote controlled cars, no drivers. Just run what you brung, if you can go 300mph in a four cylinder twin turbo on gasoline and get beat by a vehicle going 301mph with an electric motor from a locomotive so-be it. Just the fastest car wins.

pj67coll · #17 11-13-2017, 08:33 AM

Maybe in 50 to 100 years. In 20, not a chance. Those who think automation can take over from the human brain/eye/hand co-ordination don't have much to do with automation.

It's great science fiction and it'll remain that for far longer than people think.

- Peter.

Bengoshi2000 · #18 11-13-2017, 08:45 AM

I'm going to go listen to Red Barchetta and pretend I never read this...

Junkman · #19 11-13-2017, 08:57 AM

I remember when Kennedy got shot but note that younger people think & act differently. I'm a cash guy and always be until it is no longer available. I have a 15 yr old that takes cash and puts it on his prepay card so that he doesn't have to deal with carrying change in his running shorts. He was shocked to discover on a recent trip to the city that street vendors don't take cards.

Self-driving cars are coming. I'll drive my old stuff until there is no more fuel. I love how the 84SD handles. Different but still beautiful is my 78 Datsun Z. The 617 will be easier to keep fueled than the Z but I intend to keep both.

The same goes for boat fuel but that is one more excuse to sail. Not that there is much of that on our little land locked lake in Nashville but better than nothing.

torsionbar · #20 11-13-2017, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OM617YOTA

This isn't meatloaf and vegetable medley on a cardboard plate, where one sacrifices almost all the health benefits of the food in exchange for the convenience. This is 37k deaths, 2.3 million injuries, and $230B in damage per year in the USA. One will be losing almost all of that while GAINING convenience and less hassle, and likely less cost. Even if the laws don't change(they will, when was the last time it was legal to ride your horse on the freeway?), the cost difference in insurance will cause a tidal wave shift to autonomous vehicles. $50/yr(almost zero risk) for autonomous, or $6k/yr for manual drive(huge risk). Your choice.

You can still ride your horse on any street in the country, just not on 55+ mph freeways. The insurance cost is a wash, as its paid by the vehicle owners. The costs won't go down (costs never go down), so a private (non shared) autonomous vehicle will be at least as expensive as a car is today inclusive of gas, insurance, etc.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OM617YOTA

We're a group of enthusiasts, but most people don't care about their car. It's a transportation appliance and they put as much thought into it as they do their toaster oven.

Yes this much is true, there certainly is a market for autonomous vehicles. But will it be a total market takeover whereby government has banned human driven cars from public roads? Not a chance, not in any of our lifetimes anyways, or our children's lifetimes, or our grandchildren's lifetimes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OM617YOTA

This will happen. Manual drive cars will exist for use on the track, but they won't even be sane to take on the new roads. When was the last time a significant portion of the population rode a horse to work? Can you imagine taking a horse through rush hour traffic or on an 80mph freeway? Suicide. Autonomous cars will handle 150mph speeds and 20 foot following distances just fine, but again this would be suicidal in a manual drive car.

This paragraph reads like a Popular Science magazine article from the 1960's, predicting a world of flying cars within 15 years, and 150 year human lifespan by the year 2000. I think some of your analogies are a bit off. The horse as primary transport was 100+ years ago. Unless you're saying that 150 mph autonomous cars won't happen for at least another 100 years? in which case I agree that its so far in the future it's silly to speculate about.

Clemson88 · #21 11-13-2017, 11:08 AM

I kissed them goodbye long ago.

TimFreeh · #22 11-13-2017, 11:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by torsionbar

... Science magazine article from the 1960's, predicting a world of flying cars within 15 years, and 150 year human lifespan by the year 2000. I think some of your analogies are a bit off. The horse as primary transport was 100+ years ago. Unless you're saying that 150 mph autonomous cars won't happen for at least another 100 years? in which case I agree that its so far in the future it's silly to speculate about.

Bingo.

I'm constantly amazed at the credence many people give to 'experts' that make predictions 5-10-20-30 years into the future. The only prediction I'm willing to make, with any level of, certitude is that things will be different in the future. How'll they'll be different? No clue.

The points Jaybob made about sensor failures/conflicts and software integration are also spot on. The aviation industry has automation that is capable of flying planes from takeoff to landing with no human inputs at all. When these systems have failed sensors or conflicting information guess what they do? They beep, turn themselves off and tell the pilots to figure it out. The list of things you have to keep track of in keeping a plane on course and in the air are at least two orders of magnitude less complex that the myriad of things a driverless car in the real world will have to deal with. If we're truly 3-4 years away from autonomous vehicles how come we don't have autonomous planes in the commercial aviation world?

I also remember the predictions of the flying cars and don't forget the segway a decade of two back. Remember the experts/media were calling the segway 'it' and predicting they'd be replacing a lot of cars on the roads for short-haul use? Many people actually believed they'd make a serious dent in the car demand equation.

I do think driverless cars are going to happen in the future, but I don't see it happening in the near term. Could be wrong but they would be my bet.

HuskyMan · #23 11-13-2017, 12:42 PM

I submit a better idea is high speed German Mag Lev trains both through and between cities with departure stations stocked with autonomous cars similar to today's Zip Car.

Jump the high speed train into downtown, share an autonomous/zip car to your destination. No parking fees, insurance or maintenance.

When I lived in Dallas, I took the famous Park-n-ride bus from Irving into downtown Dallas every day. Parked the car in their parking lot for around $5.00 (can't remember the exact price), then took the Park-n-ride bus into downtown Dallas. Very nice bus, air conditioned, I could read the newspaper and enjoy a cup of coffee instead of fighting Dallas traffic.

I remember timing the ride on my watch; I then tried to beat the time driving my car from Irving into downtown Dallas. No way could I beat the bus driver's time. Plus, the bus dropped me off at the front door of the office tower I worked in. The last bus left at 7:00 PM so I had to make that but I didn't have to deal with Dallas traffic.

ONE LESS THING TO WORRY ABOUT.

Maxbumpo · #24 11-13-2017, 01:12 PM

Count me among the skeptics. One big problem I see is the economics: "manual" cars will always be far less expensive to purchase and operate, and so while autonomous cars sound great, they'll never be competitive on a cost basis. Insurance cost savings will never off-set that difference. In addition, what is the huge benefit, the huge improvement, once we get past the supposed safety? What is new? What is going to be so great that everyone will want one?

I was reflecting on this over the weekend. I would never give up control of my car and place my life and the life of my family completely in the control of someone (or some group of people) whom I've never met and I have no idea of how well they did their job. I'd much rather keep my liberty and privacy and accept some risk and inconvenience.

Who will be held legally responsible when there is a collision? The auto-maker? The software maker? The sensor maker? The passengers? I suspect the answer will be none of the above, and the injured party will just have to accept the loss, because we all know that a lawsuit against the big corporation will be beyond the reach of the average person. When I'm driving, I know that it is my responsibility to maintain and operate my car, and so I'm very motivated to do it right. If I'm not responsible 'cause I'm not driving and I don't even own the car, I've got zero motivation to "do it right".

Ultimately distracted drivers will self-correct (either die in a crash, stop driving, or learn to drive properly).

vstech · #25 11-13-2017, 04:05 PM

...

Insurance...

In a rented autodrive car...

The rider won't think about it...

It'll be part of the fee.

Zulfiqar · #26 11-13-2017, 04:49 PM

Lets add something to the mix. (which all of american media feeds on)

lets take a megaloaded truck full of hazmat toxic, and its in an urban setting, and in the distance you see a fake mail van which is most probably operated by some no good "terror monger" willing to exercise some work to use that trucks cargo.

a Human driver can see and compute the risks of that situation. a driverless programmed truck cannot.

take your pick.

OR

lets take a drive from Francistown Botswana all the way to Bulawayo Zimbabwe - you wont just have simpler issues like traffic to deal with on those roads (forget road service too).

take your pick again.

torsionbar · #27 11-13-2017, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zulfiqar

lets take a drive from Francistown Botswana all the way to Bulawayo Zimbabwe - you wont just have simpler issues like traffic to deal with on those roads (forget road service too).

take your pick again.

Yup, like TimFreeh said, the number of variables and potential scenarios to deal with on the ground is orders of magnitude more than it is for a plane, and we're not even there yet for planes.

What is certain however, is that electronic safety features will continue to augment our human driven cars. An early example is ABS: it pulses the brakes faster than any human can, so the car can still steer under heavy braking in slippery conditions. Navigation systems are another example. The blind-spot warning lights on the side mirrors are a more recent example, as is the automatic braking feature that applies the brakes without any driver input to avoid a collision. Adaptive cruise control is another, maintaining a fixed distance from the vehicle in front. There are plenty of other examples new and not so new. But none of these things eliminate the human driver - they augment the human driver. This is the path industry has been on for years now, and will continue to follow for the foreseeable future.

Self driving cars will be nothing but a science experiment and a curiosity for many many years to come, and when they do finally reach the public streets, they'll be in very limited specific scenarios that follow fixed routes. Think driverless street sweepers (oversized roomba anyone?), driverless mail/package delivery, driverless city busses, driverless trash collection, etc.

Zulfiqar · #28 11-13-2017, 05:52 PM

well to be honest, oversized roombas do exist, I have seen them sweeping and mopping entire mall floors. (out of USA)

btw the blindspot monitoring thing is a joke in reality. In literally all other countries you get a convex side view mirror with a more rounded corner which does exactly the same job as the blindspot LED thing but without any electricky.

You are right on the self driving vehicle being a far fetched dream right now. There are way too many factors to calculate in the business of driving.

For the time being all Im seeing is that the new self brake feature is being thrown around like crazy. All it is doing is ensuring people that they can text and drive, the car will stop itself.

chasinthesun · #29 11-14-2017, 09:17 AM

I would give it to toll roads to bring its existance to full circle,the road for the vehicle to travel on will require some enfrustructure for this to really happen. To analys, recognize and respond it will need to have certain markers supplied for its travel .The engineering of planes has been completed this way but alot less to bump into in the air.

OM617YOTA · #30 11-14-2017, 12:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by torsionbar

This paragraph reads like a Popular Science magazine article from the 1960's, predicting a world of flying cars within 15 years, and 150 year human lifespan by the year 2000. I think some of your analogies are a bit off. The horse as primary transport was 100+ years ago. Unless you're saying that 150 mph autonomous cars won't happen for at least another 100 years? in which case I agree that its so far in the future it's silly to speculate about.

Quote:

Originally Posted by OM617YOTA

I don't agree with the 20 year timeline..........

Quote:

Originally Posted by OM617YOTA

This is going to happen. Again, I don't agree with the 20 year timeline, but it's going to happen.

Like I said, it'll be generational. When we oldsters who drove our own cars kick off and are replaced by a new generation of folks who have had self drive cars their whole lives, then the transition will occur.