Current Values and Drops Due To Diesel Pricing - PeachParts Mercedes-Benz Forum

JHZR2 · #1 03-05-2022, 08:51 PM

Im seeing some pretty high diesel prices here in NJ (where fuel is usually relatively cheap). Its going to stay that way for a while. The age of biodiesel and grease car systems I think is over unless some pretty horrible worldwide conditions endure.

Are we at a point where these cars will bottom?

I know what Ive paid in the past. Im trying to buy one or two clean driveable daily use cars. Ive owned these cars for over 20 years now, I generally know the market for nice clean classic low mileage cars... What I dont understand is the market for driveable daily use w126, w124, and w210 cars.

Im not talking about clunkers which need thousands of dollars of work. im taking about mid to high mileage (say 150k-300k) cars that are generally rust free, generally clean, generally maintained, not abused, and are hitting the market. I cant imagine even with the hot used car market that we have for cars in general, that these old diesels are going to take a premium. I have some beautiful collector grade cars, that's not what Im talking about.

So, any thoughts on actual value for clean, straight runners with reasonable paint and little rust?

How about:
150k mile W124
300k mile w124
150k mile gen I w126
300k mile gen I w126
150k mile gen II w126
300k mile genII w126
150k mile NA W210
150k mile turbo w210

Thoughts?

Im seeing decent cars with some minor-ish issues (say a softball size dent or a cracked bumper fascia) in the $4000-6000 range for mileages between 300k-150k respectively. That seems high given the diesel per gallon price premium, the seeming slowdown of diesel enthusiasts (though the pickup market is hot), and the high mileage for these newer cars. Then there's the folks who are proud of their cars with ripped seats and rust bubbles... Who make claims of million mile cars and 30+ MPG... and ask $7-15k for an example with who knows what actual mileage... I think based upon the garage queens and classic finds that do get valued highly.

Does anyone see what these cars go for at auction (I assume when theyre traded, dealers dont want to mess with them)?

Does anyone know what lowball the insurance company would give for them assuming that the car isnt insured with stated value classic insurance?

Thanks!

shadetreemechan · #2 03-05-2022, 10:09 PM

Here is my theory.
We are approaching the end of the internal combustion engine era. The internal combustion cars today are so complex and built so that no one can work on them so people are looking for simpler alternatives.
Older MB diesels hit all the buttons for drivability, comfort, and relative simplicity. I think their values will stay high for a while.
Electric cars are relatively simple compared to their modern IC counterparts and because they have fewer parts, they will last longer and be easier to maintain. I think that as electric cars become more mainstream, the value of the older benzes we drive will moderate, but that will likely take another 5-8 years.
I recently built an 84 300TD that we currently use as our vacation cruiser, but will move to DD status once our 85 dies. It will give us an easy decade of service and my theory is that by then electric cars will be mainstream enough that we will all know what the 123 of the electric age is, and I will fix up one of those.

JHZR2 · #3 03-05-2022, 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shadetreemechan

Here is my theory.
We are approaching the end of the internal combustion engine era. The internal combustion cars today are so complex and built so that no one can work on them so people are looking for simpler alternatives.
Older MB diesels hit all the buttons for drivability, comfort, and relative simplicity. I think their values will stay high for a while.
Electric cars are relatively simple compared to their modern IC counterparts and because they have fewer parts, they will last longer and be easier to maintain. I think that as electric cars become more mainstream, the value of the older benzes we drive will moderate, but that will likely take another 5-8 years.
I recently built an 84 300TD that we currently use as our vacation cruiser, but will move to DD status once our 85 dies. It will give us an easy decade of service and my theory is that by then electric cars will be mainstream enough that we will all know what the 123 of the electric age is, and I will fix up one of those.

That’s fair. And to be sure, nice examples will stay high and may increase.

The issue is that these super examples give people with junk a false hope for valuations. They ask crazy money. Meanwhile we see how the valuation of recent model MB drop like a rock, due to their complexity and the excessive cost of service.

That makes it hard for me to get a good grasp on actual values for decent drivers. Not garage queens… just decent copies that don’t have a ton of issues. The issue seems to be the wacky pricing of junk.

123boy · #4 03-06-2022, 09:39 AM

First off, I'd just like to say, I can see this thread getting very heated, very quickly and headed for the "political forum" right off the bat.....
That being said, the ICE and "big oil" ain't goin anywhere, anytime soon. I'm sure everyones seen the facts and figures, stats and opinions, etc.
Anyone who believes all the cars, trucks, vans and semi's, in 18 lanes of bumper to bumper traffic, for hours daily, in our major cities will all be replaced with electric vehicles is dreamin. Ain't happenin.
The infrastructure isn't there to support it. The electric grid can't handle it. The technology for all of it is in it's infancy. Not to mention, does everyone realize where we get the raw materials to build electric vehicles. Hint: Not in the U.S.
The ONLY way it'll work, without fossil fuels, is if about 90+% of all vehicles are removed from the roads. Considering there's NOTHING to replace all of those commuter vehicles (no busses, trains, bike 30 miles to work!?) then the commuter, itself, will need to be removed in large numbers.
Considering what is currently transpiring in the world I guess that's not too big of a stretch......seems to be the "plan" unfolding right before our eyes. As Klaus Schwab's now famous quote states: "You'll own nothing and be happy"

barry12345 · #5 03-06-2022, 09:54 AM

Assuming the seller is not a car flipper. Brother in law buys at least a few cars a year. He examines them and tells the vendor what they are worth to him. Deal occurs or not.

Recent second last deal was impressive. Old 1996 chev pickup with brand new tires on it. Not running and 150k killometers. Or 100k total miles. Really clean and no rust but not running.

He paid 1,200 Canadian that is about 900.00 American and it was a bad fuel pump. Oh and it was a four wheel drive truck.

He is older and retired so has the time required to find them. He never gets upset if a deal does not happen. As in his mind he is offering what he thinks they are worth to him. I am suprised at what he comes up with.

He is not playing games as he just makes it clear what the vehicle is worth to him.

I tend to be more interested in the condition of a vehicle than the price initially.

JHZR2 · #6 03-06-2022, 09:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 123boy

First off, I'd just like to say, I can see this thread getting very heated, very quickly and headed for the "political forum" right off the bat.....

Nobody has to make it political or heated. Completely not the point. I love my collection of diesels and will own them as long as I can.

We would be fooling ourselves if the cost of diesel (geopolitical tensions and EV breakthroughs aside) didn’t play into it. These old cars aren’t 50MPG wonders. Heck, most of the 50MPG diesels were dealt with by VW. So the closing fast on $5/gal for a 25 mpg old car does weigh into a decision as to what a daily driver should be. Getting 40 highway and 60 city if I’m careful, driving my Honda Accord hybrid on RUG…. Or 25mpg in an old car burning expensive diesel.

And I’m saying that from the mindset of the everyday consumer, not the enthusiast or collector. That decision has to weigh on the pricing in the secondary market.

And as I said, this isn’t a political or heated discussion you mention. It’s that there are at the same time folks very proud of the junk they own, and are asking thousands more than it’s worth for cars with rust holes and terrible paint. Lying about longevity and MPGs.

Thus this discussion should just be facts and consideration on where the market for non-rusted out, but non-collector vehicles are going. Not the rust holes cars, not the ultra low mileage keepers. The ones with elevated mileage that are good drivers but are perhaps less interesting to the general public because of age, mileage, and diesel cost…

merc lover · #7 03-06-2022, 10:26 AM

I believe any 1995 or older mercedes is a good around town cruiser. Our problems begin when we take any long distance trip over 500 miles from home. Say a key part or component fails while you are on your long distance trip. You head over to the local MB dealership to source a new part. Only one problem, they tell you the part is either NLA or it will take a week to get from germany.

The only other alternative I can think of is to carry a cargo bin full of replacement parts in the trunk of your car for your long distance trip. Even then, there are over 10,000 parts in the average car so there is no way you could possibly pack all of those parts for your trip!

That means you get to hang out at the closest hotel waiting for the part to come in OR you get to call a tow truck to tow your MB 500 miles or more back home! Either way, it seems this is reality for those of us who own these cars. NOW, if Mercedes Benz brought back the majority of the NLA parts, we'd be sitting in hog heaven!

123boy · #8 03-06-2022, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JHZR2

Nobody has to make it political or heated. Completely not the point.

Agree 100%. However, sometimes these threads can take on a "life of their own", regardless of the OP's intention.

$5/gal diesel is already a reality in my area of the northeast. I'd imagine it's close to $6 on the "left coast"?

My hunch is diesel will be available when gasoline is not. Regardless of price/gal, any usable fuel is better than none. Not to mention the "french fry component".

This is ONLY my opinion, not based in fact or stats. During what was known as "The Arab Oil Embargo" (non-pc name nowadays heh heh), mid 70's and driving at that time (whoa dude...your OLD), diesel was ALWAYS available when gasoline was not. People with the old VW diesel Rabbits were "makin out like fat rats". Diesel was considerably cheaper, compared to gasoline, at that time, as well. The trucking industry (and others) need diesel to operate and will take priority over the general population. Unless, of course, everything grinds to a halt. In which case, all bets are off.

Not sure how "all this" relates to your initial post, but I'd say the cars you're talkin about will drop in value. The market for them is shrinking. People with the ability to keep them going is shrinking even faster. As for spare parts....who knows? I guess you need to keep a couple spares (parts and CARS) on hand.

tbomachines · #9 03-06-2022, 12:07 PM

I think fuel prices are a red herring at this point. Many of the mb diesels are (and have been for some time) seen as classics and collectibles more than daily drivers, which is why the minty examples have shot up considerably. I personally believe the bottom of the market was around 2010 or so, when MBs were too common and newish to be worth restoring, frybrid was all the rage, and many were still DDs.

If anything, the 80s-90s market is on fire due to millenials finally having some disposable income and buying cars they always wanted, midlife crisis style. Early 90s japanese market for example is not going to go down anytime soon.

vwnate1 · #10 03-06-2022, 12:31 PM

A Husky Man states, they're dandy local daily drivers .

I'm still using my W123's for road trips and rallies, I'm Way Out West so it's not too hard .

I see some of nice W123 Diesels coming into the local junkyards, it makes me sad but the facts are : these are now cult cars so the average ones are getting hard to sell .

I'm considering letting my beloved Coupe go, I know I'll never get the $ I put into it back out that's life .

Condition really is the thing .

RUST NEVER SLEEPS.

JHZR2 · #11 03-06-2022, 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vwnate1

A Husky Man states, they're dandy local daily drivers .

I'm still using my W123's for road trips and rallies, I'm Way Out West so it's not too hard .

I see some of nice W123 Diesels coming into the local junkyards, it makes me sad but the facts are : these are now cult cars so the average ones are getting hard to sell .

I'm considering letting my beloved Coupe go, I know I'll never get the $ I put into it back out that's life .

Condition really is the thing .

RUST NEVER SLEEPS.

I’m on board with them being daily drivers. I’ve done that on and off for the last 20 years.

The point that they’re cult cars is kind of what I’m getting at. I’ve got my mint examples. I know what they’re worth and the trajectories they’re going.

But they’re cult cars. I’m part of that “cult”. But I want some lower grade examples to drive along with my cherry ones.

And that’s where the issue is. People with junk are pricing their junk like the cult wants it. I don’t. And I’d pay for high mileage clean cars with histories that will never be collectible. The problem is that junk is priced where I think those cars should be worth, and so there is so much to weed through. And then it still may be overpriced based upon condition and demand.

Knowing how these cars sell at auction, and how much demand in lots and private party that there actually is would help with determining “real” value…

jsain86 · #12 03-06-2022, 03:26 PM

Why would you drive your classic Mercedes on a road trip if there are parts on it you think would fail? I daily drive my 83 300D and take it on road trips. I never had an issue. You take car of your car it will take care of you. You don’t need a bucket of parts with you for a road trip. I’ve been driving these old Mercedes for 18yrs now and they are very reliable and I drive them daily and drive them everywhere.

JHZR2 · #13 03-06-2022, 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jsain86

Why would you drive your classic Mercedes on a road trip if there are parts on it you think would fail? I daily drive my 83 300D and take it on road trips. I never had an issue. You take car of your car it will take care of you. You don’t need a bucket of parts with you for a road trip. I’ve been driving these old Mercedes for 18yrs now and they are very reliable and I drive them daily and drive them everywhere.

Agree. Reliable and simple. While I’ve had a few stupid things happen, it’s been during maintenance at home, or due to something missed (cv axle boot torn, I inflated sore tire, etc.). I wouldn’t hesitate to drive any of my classics across country tomorrow…

BillGrissom · #14 03-06-2022, 04:10 PM

In CA, we can buy renewable diesel at the pump, currently sourced from waste food processing. Propel and Union76 sell it, and works in any diesel engine, indeed runs smoother (higher cetane). Usually it is priced the same as cheaper D2 stations, but less than stations like Shell. I have checked after the recent run-up but saw D2 running $5.50/gal yesterday. I expect bio would raise their prices to what customers will pay, even if their cost didn't go up.

JHZR2 · #15 03-06-2022, 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BillGrissom

In CA, we can buy renewable diesel at the pump, currently sourced from waste food processing. Propel and Union76 sell it, and works in any diesel engine, indeed runs smoother (higher cetane). Usually it is priced the same as cheaper D2 stations, but less than stations like Shell. I have checked after the recent run-up but saw D2 running $5.50/gal yesterday. I expect bio would raise their prices to what customers will pay, even if their cost didn't go up.

The fuel is a commodity, priced on the spot market. What they source it from or how cheap the source is is irrelevant.

Kind of like if you pull crude out of the ground at $10/bbl at some third world source, and the spot market is selling at $100+.