Stock Market Sentiment 2006 - PeachParts Mercedes-Benz Forum

420SEL · #1 01-01-2006, 12:48 PM

OK, I do this every year, so I hope you're not getting bored of it yet. The Dow had an interesting year, coming down about 65.5 points in 2005. When we did this last year, 74% thought the Dow would be up over 11,340 at the least, with 52% putting their money on the Dow rising over 11,881. 24% thought the Dow would be beneath 10,260 by now, with 15% thinking we would be down below 9,720. Interestingly, nobody voted for a Dow that did between -5 and 5%. (Maybe not too surprising because since 1901, the Dow was more than twice as likely to have "extreme returns," either below -10% or above +10% than to have come in between -10% and +10%.

We closed 2005 at 10,717.5. The question is now, where do you see it at the end of 2006. Commentary is also welcomed. Thanks for the input.

Hatterasguy · #2 01-01-2006, 04:29 PM

Ahh I really dislike the stock market, way to many people with tons of money in it that are not investors.

I think it will go up a few percent a year for the next couple of years. Until the baby boomers start sell stuff from there 401k's. Then all bets are off, probably a massive downward spiral.

Brian Carlton · #3 01-01-2006, 08:17 PM

Well, I make no predictions for a percentage gain in 2006, but, sooner or later the big growth stocks (GE, Cisco, etc.) that have been basically flat for the past 2 years will have to move upward one of these days. The P/E's are becoming more attractive every day.

View Poll Results: Where will the DOW end 2006
Up more than 20% (12,860 or higher)	2	11.11%
Up 10% -20% (11,788 - 12,859)	2	11.11%
Up 5% to 10% (11,252 - 11,787)	6	33.33%
Flat - right around 10,700 (less than 5% either way)	3	16.67%
Down 5% to 10% (9,645 - 10,181)	1	5.56%
Down 10% to 20% (8,574 - 9,645)	2	11.11%
Down more than 20% (8,573 or lower)	2	11.11%
Voters: 18. You may not vote on this poll