The only shortages are in refineries, and money to buy it at the pump. Peak oil is a promulgated myth.

The Saudi's seem to be having trouble hitting their numbers. Yes, that OPEC is not flooding the market right now is remarkable, and probably tells you everything you need to know. That, and with Exxon having two quarters of declining profits is starting to put "peak oil" in the vocabulary. Crude is probably close to $30 rich in the price right now, but it's just a matter of time until anything we see now is cheap. Demand from China seems to be growing parabolic along with ever other problem the worry warts want to focus on - food, population, weather, water and funny bugs.
CYA and get ready to adapt. The Chinese character for disaster is the same as opportunity. It'll be five years after the fact we can know with any certainty that we've peaked, but the demand from the developing countries have effected the same result right now.
It's amazing how little you can get by on if you really try. I'm living alone now, but have gotten down my electric consumption by nearly 70%

__________________
89 300E
79 240D
72 Westy
63 Bug sunroof
85 Jeep CJ7
86 Chevy 6.2l diesel PU

"The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
Marcus Aurelius

Refinery capacity has doubled by expanding the existing refineries. It's money! If you know the business why build a huge plant that will never have the supply to refine. Much better to just expand what is all ready in play and get ready to get into nuclear.

__________________
89 300E
79 240D
72 Westy
63 Bug sunroof
85 Jeep CJ7
86 Chevy 6.2l diesel PU

"The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane."
Marcus Aurelius

Yeah, I heard that on MSNBC and CNN too. Here are the actual refinery utilization numbers form the DOE. (ie what percentage of the US refinery capacity is online)

1997 --- 95.1%
1998 --- 95.3%
1999 --- 92.9%
2000 --- 92.3%
2001 --- 92.2%
2002 --- 89.9%
2003 --- 91.9%
2004 --- 92.3%
2005 --- 90.4%
2006 --- 89.4%
2007 --- 88.8%

If we were short on refineries, 2007 would not be the lowest utilization year in the last 10. Also interesting to note the recent similarity in the world crude production trend and the utilization trend.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wiup_dcu_nus_w.htm

__________________
1982 300TD 279K.
1984 190D 5sp 265K

I think that's the one I heard part of the soundtrack of on a Berkeley public station. Pretty impressive. I'll track it down.

One thing is certain, we're using ancient sunlight, stored in the earth like a giant battery, and replacing it will be near impossible.

__________________
1986 300SDL, 362K
1984 300D, 138K