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  #1  
Old 11-14-2006, 11:15 AM
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No Peak Oil until 2020

No "Peak Oil" yet -
Rising global demand for oil

There's no question that demand is rising. Last year, global oil consumption jumped 3.5%, or 2.8 million barrels a day. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects demand rising from the current 84 million barrels a day to 103 million barrels by 2015. If China and India — where cars and factories are proliferating madly — start consuming oil at just one-half of current U.S. per-capita levels, global demand would jump 96%, according to Nur.

Such forecasts put the doom in doomsday. Many in the industry reject the notion that global oil production can't keep up. "This is the fifth time we've run out of oil since the 1880s," scoffs Daniel Yergin, who won a Pulitzer Prize for his 1991 oil industry history The Prize.

In June, Yergin's consulting firm, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) in Cambridge, Mass., concluded oil supplies would exceed demand through 2010. Plenty of new oil is likely to be found in the Middle East and off the coasts of Brazil and Nigeria, Yergin says.

"There's a lot more oil out there still to find," says Peter Jackson, a veteran geologist who co-authored the CERA study.

Based on current technology, peak oil production won't occur before 2020, Yergin says. And even if it does, oil production volumes won't plummet immediately; they'll coast for years on an "undulating plateau," he says.

Debate growing sharper

Both sides in the peak oil controversy agree that oil is a finite resource and that every year, the world consumes more oil than it discovers. But those are about the only things they agree upon.

As the debate has persisted, it's grown personal. "Peak oil" believers disparage those who disagree as mere "economists" in thrall to the magic of the marketplace or simple-minded "optimists" who assume every new well will score.

Yergin emphasizes that the CERA study was developed by geologists and petroleum engineers, not social scientists. Of Simmons, Yergin says: "He's wonderful at stirring up an argument and slinging around rhetoric. ... For some of these people, it seems to be a theological issue. For us, it's an analytic issue."

When they're not trading insults, the two sides disagree fiercely over the likelihood of future technology breakthroughs, prospects for so-called unconventional fuel sources such as oil sands and even the state of Saudi Arabia's reserves.

The world's No. 1 oil exporter, in fact, is at the center of Simmons' new book, Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy, which has reinvigorated the peak oil argument.

Simmons says it's impossible for global production to keep up with surging demand unless the Saudis can increase daily production beyond today's 9.5 million barrels and continue pumping comfortably for decades. And, indeed, Yergin is counting on the Saudis to reach 13 million barrels a day by 2015.

Yet while the oil reserves of U.S. firms are verified by the U.S. Geological Survey, the Saudis — like other OPEC countries — don't allow independent audits of their reservoirs. So when Riyadh says it has 263 billion barrels locked up beneath the desert, the world has to take it at its word.

Simmons didn't. Instead, two years ago, he pulled about 200 technical papers from the files of the Society of Petroleum Engineers and performed his own assessment. His conclusion: The Saudis are increasingly straining to drag oil out of aging fields and could suffer a "production collapse" at any time.

Yergin is more optimistic both about the Saudis and the industry's prospects in general. If the past is any guide, technological breakthroughs will reshape both demand and supply, he says. In the 1970s, for example, the deepest offshore wells were drilled in 600 feet of water. Today, a Chevron well in the Gulf of Mexico draws oil from 10,011 feet below the surface.

Widespread use of technologies such as remote sensing and automation in "digital oil fields" could boost global oil reserves by 125 billion barrels, CERA says. Already, advanced software and "down hole measurement" devices to track what's happening in the well have elevated recovery rates in some North Sea fields to 60% from the industry average of 35%, Jackson says.

Technology also won't stand still on the consumption side of the equation, Yergin says. "By 2025 or 2030, we'll probably be moving around in vehicles quite different from the ones we drive today. Maybe we'll be driving around in vehicles that get 110 miles to the gallon," he says.
CERA Report

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  #2  
Old 10-26-2007, 08:53 AM
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Anybody seen this documentary? It was recommended to me recently.

Bot

http://www.oilcrashmovie.com/film.html
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  #3  
Old 10-26-2007, 01:17 PM
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World Crude Oil and Lease Condensate Production
Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy, Table 11d

2005
73,805,000 bpd

2006
73,543,000 bpd

2007
73,188,000 bpd


Interestingly enough, the article you referenced is from 2005. Looks like Peak Oil, smells like Peak Oil...
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  #4  
Old 10-26-2007, 02:15 PM
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"But before that happens there will come a day when oil production ‘peaks,’ when demand overtakes supply (and never looks back)"

That is the first error - in the description. Peak oil has nothing to do with consumption. Peak oil is the rate at which it is produced, we assume it will be consumed. Whether it is or isn't is irrelevant, except in the extreme where the demand dropped so far as to drive the price down and force a lot of wells to be uneconomic, and thus the rate drops.

As usual the political aspects (which are important) seem to get confused with the technical aspects of finding and producing the oil. They are related, but not as causual as most people think.

For many years in the US we have been on a cycle to become gas producers. Oil became passe. Now the price of oil is significantly factored higher than gas. Traditionally it was around 6:1 now 13:1 or more. The costs of doing business is based on $80 oil (rig rates etc) but your product (gas) is not competing on the revenue side. We are starting to see a return to oil.

Movies of this type don't usually have as much a political agenda as showing a clueless grasp of the technical and marketing aspects of the business.






Quote:
Originally Posted by Botnst View Post
Anybody seen this documentary? It was recommended to me recently.

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http://www.oilcrashmovie.com/film.html
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  #5  
Old 10-26-2007, 02:19 PM
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Go back in history and see if there are any other 3 year periods that are essentially flat.

One thing that is never written about is that the record keeping in just about every country except the US is HORRIBLE and very inaccurate. Our intelligence agencies try to predict production from satellite photos, talk about a guess! The FSU area has a lot of production but figuring out what the numbers are is impossible.

Actually in the US, some states have prehistoric record keeping as well. West Virginia comes to mind.




Quote:
Originally Posted by csp97 View Post
World Crude Oil and Lease Condensate Production
Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy, Table 11d

2005
73,805,000 bpd

2006
73,543,000 bpd

2007
73,188,000 bpd


Interestingly enough, the article you referenced is from 2005. Looks like Peak Oil, smells like Peak Oil...
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  #6  
Old 10-26-2007, 05:03 PM
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There are certainly other periods that are flat or declining. As far as I can find they all correspond to a recession (lower demand) or low oil prices.

I can't find another period in history where we have a strong world economy and record high oil prices and no corresponding jump in oil production. This is the primary reason I think something is very wrong.
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  #7  
Old 10-27-2007, 07:58 PM
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If, in the 1990's, Congress had allowed outer coastal shelf drilling along the east coast and Gulf Coast of FL and in ANWR those sources would have come on line by now. Also, if the Russian kleptocracy had let the international oil companies keep their contracted oil exploration and production rights then Khamchatka and Siberia would be in production by now. Instead, the kleptocracy is incompetent to the task and is unable to effect yet another bait-and-switch.

I'm not saying Peak Oil isn't going to occur within the next decade or so (I believe it is). I just don't think we will recognize it.

See, when oil was $30/BBL the world was beginning to run-out of $30 oil. Now that it is over twice that price for oil it makes previously unprofitable venture, profitable. This expensive oil has resulted in a tremendous investment in exploration world-wide. There have been stupendous advances in seismic exploration that has vastly improved accuracy. But it takes several years to progress from seismic exploration to producing oil field. So I figure we'll see another step upward in world-wide production and in reserve estimates.

But in the long run, we are depleting oil faster than it is being created -- if it is still even being created. But hand-in-hand with increased oil prices and increased oil exploration is research into alternatives.

I'm almost willing to bet that some genius engineer of some sort, somewhere, is going to patent a system or methodology that seems completely absurd right now, but that will revolutionize energy conversion.

Call it a statement of faith because I sure have no evidence. If I did you can bet your bippy I'd be investing in it!

B
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  #8  
Old 10-27-2007, 10:01 PM
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The political factor is a major force now holding things back. 75 years ago, if the demand was high you could go out and drill. There are too many regulations that make the cost of doing business unreasonable. Regulations by themselves are not bad, but when they are applied blindly, without intelligent thought and with their own political agendas, everybody suffers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by csp97 View Post
There are certainly other periods that are flat or declining. As far as I can find they all correspond to a recession (lower demand) or low oil prices.

I can't find another period in history where we have a strong world economy and record high oil prices and no corresponding jump in oil production. This is the primary reason I think something is very wrong.
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Old 10-27-2007, 10:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Botnst View Post
I'm not saying Peak Oil isn't going to occur within the next decade or so (I believe it is). I just don't think we will recognize it.
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Very true! It may take a long time to recognize it.
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Old 10-28-2007, 02:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Botnst View Post


I'm almost willing to bet that some genius engineer of some sort, somewhere, is going to patent a system or methodology that seems completely absurd right now, but that will revolutionize energy conversion.

Call it a statement of faith because I sure have no evidence. If I did you can bet your bippy I'd be investing in it!

B
Worth a look and a very small bet
http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=IVAN
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  #11  
Old 10-30-2007, 03:17 PM
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Comments from head of Libyia's National Oil Corp and the former head of Saudi Aramaco. More in line with Peak Oil theory than not.



http://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnL30807475.html?rpc=401&
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  #12  
Old 10-30-2007, 03:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crash9 View Post
Worth a look and a very small bet
http://finance.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=IVAN
Linked article looks intriguing.

B

-----------------

Ivanhoe Energy Inc IVAN.O (NASDAQ)
Sector: Energy Industry: Oil & Gas Operations View IVAN.O on other exchanges
As of 2:04 PM EST
$2.34USD
Price Change
Down0.06
Percent Change
Down2.50%

Independent Research Profile Report

Back to the Company Overview

Ivanhoe Energy Inc., incorporated on February 21, 1995, is an independent international heavy oil development and production company. The Company is exploring an opportunity to monetize stranded gas reserves through the application of the conversion of natural gas-to-liquids using a technology (GTL Technology or GTL) licensed from Syntroleum Corporation. Its core operations are in the United States and China. Ivanhoe Energy's heavy oil upgrading technology upgrades heavy oil and bitumen by producing crude oil, along with by-product energy, which can be used to generate steam or electricity. The Company's principal oil and gas properties are located in California's San Joaquin Basin and Sacramento Gas Basin, the Midland Basin in Texas and the Hebei and Sichuan Provinces in China.

United States

The Company has 59 producing wells in South Midway and is the operator, with a working interest of 100% and a 93% net revenue interest. During the year ended December 31, 2006, it drilled 10 new wells on the South Midway properties. The 10 new wells are producing 150 gross barrels of oil per day (Bopd). Three wells in this program were drilled to test for pool extensions or new pool discoveries.
In the southern expansion area of South Midway, the Company has supplemented the cyclic steam project with a pilot to test continuous steam injection into five wells. Production from the southern expansion area is approximately 150 gross Bopd and total South Midway production is approximately 590 gross Bopd at December 31, 2006.

In 2000, the Company farmed into the Spraberry property, which is a producing property located on 2,500 gross acres in the Spraberry Trend of the West Texas Permian Basin in Midland County, Texas. After the Company had sold a portion of its working interest, it retained working interests ranging from 31% to 48% in 25 wells, which produce approximately 80 net barrel of oil equivalent/ day (Boe/d). In 2006, the Company sold its working interest in its three producing wells in the Citrus prospect. It holds 2,316 net acreage in this prospect, all of which has been farmed out. As part of this farm out the Company retained a carried 35% working interest in two wells.

The Company farmed in to the Knights Landing project is a 15,700 gross-acre block located in the Sacramento Gas Basin in northern California. It has drilled nine new exploratory wells, which resulted in three successful completions and six dry holes. Subsequent to this drilling program, the Company increased its working interests in the project and 11 existing producing natural gas wells. During the year ended December 31, 2005, the Company acquired a three-dimensional (3-D) seismic data program over 25 square miles covering its Knights Landing acreage block. The Company completed its seismic acquisition program in December 2005, and completed processing and interpretation of the seismic data in 2006.

The Aera exploration agreement, originally covering an area of more than 250,000 acres in the San Joaquin Basin, gave the Company access to all of Aera's exploration, seismic and technical data in the region for the purpose of identifying drillable exploration prospects. The Company identified 13 prospects within 11 areas of mutual interest (AMI) covering approximately 46,800 gross acres owned by Aera and an additional 24,200 acres of leased mineral rights. Of the 13 prospects submitted, Aera has elected to take a working interest in 10 prospects, resulting in the Company's retention of working interests ranging from 12.5% to 50%. The Company has a 100% working interest in three prospects, in which Aera elected not to participate: South Midway, Citrus and North Yowlumne.

In December 2005, drilling commenced on the North Yowlumne prospect with a planned total depth of 13,000 feet to test the Stevens sands that have produced over 100 million barrels of oil at the nearby Yowlumne field. The well did not produce commercial quantities of hydrocarbons during several tests and has been suspended indefinitely by the operator. In March 2007, the Company assigned its rights to this property and retained a carried 15% working interest in future drilling of the prospect.

China

The Company's producing property in China is a 30-year production-sharing contract with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), covering an area of 12,110 gross acres divided into four blocks in the Kongnan oilfield in Dagang, Hebei Province, China (the Dagang field). In January 2004, the Company negotiated farm-out and joint operating agreements with Richfirst Holdings Limited (Richfirst) a subsidiary of China International Trust and Investment Corporation (CITIC). Richfirst converted its 40% working interest in the Dagang field and in February 2006, the Company re-acquired Richfirst's 40% working interest.
At December 31, 2006, the Company had drilled a total of 39 development wells in the approved Overall Development Plan (ODP). In 2006, the Company reached agreement with CNPC to reduce the overall scope of the ODP to approximately 44 wells. In 2006, gross production rate was 1,877 Bopd c. The Company sells its crude oil at a three-month rolling average price of Cinta crude. During 2006, it completed one well drilled in 2005, fracture stimulated 12 wells and re-completed 13 wells. In addition, it relinquished two of the six blocks that were part of the original development plan. In October 2006, the Company commenced drilling a second exploration well, which is being drilled to a target depth of 12,800 feet. In 2006, it farmed-out 10% of its working interest in the Zitong block to Mitsubishi Gas Chemical Company Inc. of Japan (Mitsubishi).

--------------------------
Ivanhoe licenses the technology from the following:
http://www.syntroleum.com/proj_rba_biofining.aspx
Ooops! That one is for biofuel.

Here's the correct link:
http://www.syntroleum.com/tech_stranded_gas_opp.aspx

Last edited by Botnst; 10-30-2007 at 03:29 PM.
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  #13  
Old 11-01-2007, 04:54 PM
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Exxon's Crude Nightmare
Evelyn M. Rusli, 11.01.07, 2:35 PM ET Forbes

The odd dynamic of expensive crude oil and weak gasoline prices, is turning into an ugly headache for Exxon Mobil.

On Thursday, the giant energy company, said profits fell 10.3% to $9.4 billion, or $1.70 a share, from $10.5 billion, or $1.77 a share, for the year-ago period. Meanwhile, sales edged up 2.7% to $102.3 billion, from $99.6 billion. The results were well shy of Wall Street’s call--analysts were expecting profits of $1.75 a share on sales of $113.0 billion.

Shares of Exxon Mobil (nyse: XOM - news - people ) fell 2.8%, or $2.59, to $89.40 in afternoon trading.

Like other oil refiners, Exxon Mobil has been battered by high crude prices because gasoline prices have not risen proportionately. For instance, from May to October, gasoline prices actually fell 45 cents a gallon. In turn, this imbalance depresses refining margins--the spread between what a company pays for crude and what it earns from the refined products.

With oil hurtling toward the $100 mark--amid low supplies and political tension in the Middle East--refiners may not get a break in the near future. On Thursday, the price of crude oil dipped to $94.54 in morning trading, after having briefly broken past the $96 level.

In addition, Exxon Mobil experienced lower chemical margins, owing to weak natural gas prices and increased costs. Maturing fields also hampered yields, as oil production fell 4.3% in the quarter. In total, upstream profits (which includes exploration and production) declined 3.1% to $6.3 billion.

Meanwhile, downstream earnings (from refining and marketing) slipped 36.8% to $2.0 billion. The greatest drag took place in the United States, where earnings fell 39.1%. By comparison, earnings fell 34.9% abroad.

Refining margins have plagued the largest energy players this year. Last month, BP (nyse: BP - news - people ) said profits plunged 29.3% to $4.4 billion, from $6.2 billion in the year-ago period.(See: "BP Looking Better." )

In the second quarter, gasoline prices rose because of a perceived tightening in gasoline inventories, as problems and delays stalled production at American refineries. With crude oil prices high and gasoline supply tight, oil companies were able to charge consumers fat prices at the pump during the height of the vacation season.

However, since then, refineries have ramped up production, flooding gasoline supplies and, in turn, depressing prices. Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Fadel Gheit called the second quarter a unique period and said that refinery issues inflated gas prices to extraordinary heights. "We are now returning to more realistic numbers," he remarked.

Last month, Chevron (nyse: CVX - news - people ) warned that profits would fall sharply in the period on tight refining margins. The San Ramon, Calif.-based company did not lay out specific numbers, but Chevron, which reports results on Friday, did say that third-quarter profits will be "significantly below" second-quarter results.

A slew of oil companies were down on Thursday. Chevron stumbled 1.6%, or $1.50 to $90.01, Royal Dutch Shell (nyse: RDSA - news - people ) dropped 2.5%, or $2.15, to $85.36, and BP dropped 1.6%, or $1.22, to $76.77 in afternoon trading.

-- The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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  #14  
Old 11-01-2007, 07:14 PM
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Smells like a dead fish to me...

Quote:
Originally Posted by csp97 View Post
World Crude Oil and Lease Condensate Production
Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy, Table 11d

2005
73,805,000 bpd

2006
73,543,000 bpd

2007
73,188,000 bpd


Interestingly enough, the article you referenced is from 2005. Looks like Peak Oil, smells like Peak Oil...


This smells like an OPEC thing to me... If they keep production flat for a while they can drive up the price per barrel as we have seen. I will bet that if the world economy begins to slide to a recession and therefore a demand drop, all of a sudden huge increases in output will happen and the price will be protected at something like $80 a barrel. remember we are dealing with a cartel and not with true market forces here...
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  #15  
Old 11-02-2007, 10:46 AM
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1. OPEC cut crude production by 750,000 bpd last fall in response to “low” oil prices. They’ve raised quotas by 500,000 for October. It is yet to be seen if they can actually achieve this. Early reports from Oil Intel, who counts tankers leaving OPEC ports, says there has been no increase in production.
2. Historically OPEC has not been able to control its members when oil prices are high. Rampant quota cheating is always seen as the oil price rises. Why, in the granddaddy of all oil price spikes, would this time be any different? IMHO, every OPEC member is producing at 100% except for Saudi Arabia which has maybe 500,000 bpd spare capacity.

Cantarell, the #2 oil field in the world is declining 10+% per year. The North Sea oil fields are declining at 10% per year. The production decline will accelerate into the future. We will see gas stations running out of fuel and/or govt fuel rationing within 3 years.

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