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  #1  
Old 11-06-2007, 08:24 AM
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Long range climate forecast for USA

Looks interesting.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

Might be interesting to compare it with this:

http://www.dryday.com/

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  #2  
Old 11-06-2007, 01:44 PM
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I'd like to see how this compares to the Farmer's Almanac...
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Old 11-06-2007, 02:27 PM
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All I want to know is WHY NO HURRICANES? --Since dozens were predicted for the Carribean and Gulf of Mexico for '06 & '07......... What happened to that Long Range Forecast........?
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  #4  
Old 11-06-2007, 02:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Skid Row Joe View Post
All I want to know is WHY NO HURRICANES? --Since dozens were predicted for the Carribean and Gulf of Mexico for '06 & '07......... What happened to that Long Range Forecast........?
My dog ate my homework.
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  #5  
Old 11-06-2007, 02:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skid Row Joe View Post
All I want to know is WHY NO HURRICANES? --Since dozens were predicted for the Carribean and Gulf of Mexico for '06 & '07......... What happened to that Long Range Forecast........?
It was a vicious plot to generate consumerism in the "Hurricane Goods" market...
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  #6  
Old 11-06-2007, 04:19 PM
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Forecasts bear no accuracy........insurance companies know this. Idiots that pay useless insurance premiums, don't.

Casualty insurance has been a boon the past 2 years. A few good hurricanes & earthquakes ensure premium increases. I like disaster, doom and gloom forecasts.........works magic for stock pricing. People love doom and gloom, as do their insurance companies.
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  #7  
Old 11-06-2007, 04:30 PM
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Almost forgot our Country's new green pet........that Global Warming BS....... Forecasts are FUN!

I'll take all the global warming hysteria I can get........it insures higher premiums,, inspiring the morons that buy the insurance against the 50 feet of water Algore said will cover their heads on Manhattan, and elsewhere.........all happening in the next five years. lol!

Hysteria........that's where it's at today.........
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  #8  
Old 11-06-2007, 04:38 PM
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Hysteria, huh? The arctic will almost certainly be largely free of ice in a couple of decades. Open water asorbs much more heat from sunlight than does reflective ice. It's going faster than anyone predicted.

Salmon rely on inputs of cold water from up north to regulate their cycles. Salmon runs are way down this year.

The precip. maps don't look too good in that first link in the OP. California, the Rocky Mntn. states, and now Georgia are finding out that seriously reduced precip. is no joke.

Unfortunately, by the time all the denialists, who now mock the "hysteria", are forced by reality to sit up and take notice, there won't be much satisfaction to be had from their hearty helpings of crow.
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Old 11-06-2007, 04:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Skid Row Joe View Post
All I want to know is WHY NO HURRICANES? --Since dozens were predicted for the Carribean and Gulf of Mexico for '06 & '07......... What happened to that Long Range Forecast........?
Dude, a few years is nothing in terms of changing conditions on the planet.

Let's see how smug you are in a few more years.
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Last edited by cmac2012; 11-06-2007 at 04:48 PM.
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  #10  
Old 11-07-2007, 12:59 PM
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Originally Posted by cmac2012 View Post
Dude, a few years is nothing in terms of changing conditions on the planet.

Let's see how smug you are in a few more years.
That will be interesting for everybody because by then, evidence and physical models should be pretty nearly irrefutable and demonstrate a human impact on climate change -- or not.

No more equivocating, no more arguing in (guessing) 2-5 years.

B
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  #11  
Old 11-07-2007, 01:41 PM
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Quote:
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Hysteria, huh? The arctic will almost certainly be largely free of ice in a couple of decades.
Yes, hysteria. Even the IPCC refutes what you've said.
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Old 11-07-2007, 02:48 PM
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Originally Posted by peragro View Post
Yes, hysteria. Even the IPCC refutes what you've said.
I wish more people were aware that the co-recipient of the Nobel, the IPCC, diverges markedly from much of Gore's gloom & doom prognostications.

B
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  #13  
Old 11-07-2007, 03:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Botnst View Post
I wish more people were aware that the co-recipient of the Nobel, the IPCC, diverges markedly from much of Gore's gloom & doom prognostications.

B
However, Like St. Gore, they also diverge markedly from reality; especially betwixt the Summary for Policy Makers and the Scientific Summary. Although their divergence is less, by orders of magnitude, than is St. Gore's.
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  #14  
Old 11-07-2007, 04:08 PM
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A colleague is on the panel and helped write some of teh sci portion. Herding 10,000 cats would be easier than arriving at consensus. But they did -- which I think is why they got a "Peace Prize"!

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