S & P 500 Stock Index Watch (Misery Index) - PeachParts Mercedes-Benz Forum

Skid Row Joe · #1 04-04-2008, 12:39 AM

Since the recession is weighing heavy on everyone's mind, I will post and monitor the S & P 500 Stock Index, to keep an eye on just how bad it will get.
At least 60% of Americans polled recently, believe we've been in a recession for several months now. It must be true, since polls measure everything accurately.

Starting with April 3, 2008's close:

SP500 S&P 500 Index (INDEX) Delayed quote data 4/3/2008 4:59 PM hide quote detailed quote options chain
chart help

Last:
1,369.31 Change:

+1.78 Open:
1,365.69 High:
1,375.66 Low:
1,358.68 Volume:
n/a Percent Change:
+0.13% Yield:
2.02% P/E Ratio:
17.39 52 Week Range:
1,256.98 to 1,576.09

LaRondo · #2 04-04-2008, 05:50 AM

Stock market index is hardly an indicator for real time economic trends.

Read an excerpt from the Fed's 'Beige Book':

Fed's Beige Book reports economic slowdown in 8 of 12 districts
03.05.08, 2:16 PM ET

WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - The Economy has slowed down since the beginning of the year in two-thirds of the US Federal Reserve's regions and growth is subdued in the others, the Fed's Beige Book regional survey said today, although no region reported an actual contraction.
Eight of the 12 regional Fed banks 'cited softening or weakening in the pace of business activity, while the others referred to subdued, slow or modest growth,' the summary of anecdotal reports from the regional banks said.

Two-thirds of the banks also said there were 'tight credit standards' in their area and all but two districts had declining loan demand. Some regional banks also cited indications of declining loan quality.
Housing was described as 'weak' and home sales 'low' all across the country. There were increasing reports that commercial real estate demand had also begun to slow down.

Retail spending reports were 'generally downbeat,' with auto sales particularly 'slow or sluggish.'

Manufacturing was 'mixed but, on the whole subdued,' the Beige Book said. All districts, the summary noted 'mentioned caution or concern on the part of at least some segments of manufacturing.'
Companies complained of higher energy, materials and transportation costs in almost all district reports, but they said 'firms ability to pass along cost increases by raising selling prices varied.'

Businesses said they had 'limited wage pressures, moderate wage increases and some loosening of labor markets.' Eight of the twelve districts reported 'pullbacks in the pace of hiring by some firms,' but fewer reported rising layoffs.

Energy and agriculture reported strong growth and higher prices, except for farming areas affected by drought.

Botnst · #3 04-04-2008, 08:15 AM

So we're going to have a severe recession or depression sometime. Gee, that's some insight. In other news, I predict the weather will get warmer before it gets colder.

B

raymr · #4 04-04-2008, 08:33 AM

The hell of it is, you don't know its been a recession until you're in it. It's like going to the doctor and finding out the reason you don't feel good is because you're sick.

LaRondo · #5 04-04-2008, 03:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Botnst

So we're going to have a severe recession or depression sometime. Gee, that's some insight. In other news, I predict the weather will get warmer before it gets colder.

B

You made a good post in another thread:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Botnst

My experiences are the fuel events of the 1970's, the inflationary nightmare of the late '70's early '80's and the recession of the early 1990's. I lived in a different region for each event. This current thing in comparison to those previous events, is nonexistent.

In fact, quite the opposite: Things around here are blowing & going. A house up the street is on the market for over twice what I paid for mine in the early 1990's. I like this "recession" thingie and want more, please.

The disparity points to what we already know: The economy is not equal across regions nor is it it equal within regions. Some areas and some sectors take a hit and others do not. The GDP is still expanding so technically -- no recession. But if you live in an area or in an economic sector that is dependent on real estate and heavy manufacturing then you are probably hurting, no matter what the GDP says.

B

PS What Brian said x2.

Situations are definitely no the same across all regions. Some are struggling, some appeare to be booming.

Light hearted though, would be, to think it's not possible or it can't happen here. There is a large scale consolidation under progress in this country. Ofcourse you'd love to ridicule me for that.

Strinking me as ridiculous, is the mentality of people, who are awlays looking for comparisons "Oh it's just like this and that again". It is not.

Why do people do this? Because they are unable to coop with the unknown.

However I am not an economic guru, nor am I a recessionist. I am just a cautious person, by nature. It has save and enabled me likewise, throughout my entire lifespan, so far.
It's always good to be prepared for the unexpected.

Stock market index reflects investment trends. It is of no significance to a person who does not own any stock.

Ps. Keep an eye on that house you mentioned up for sale. See how long it takes to be sold and for what ....

I live in one of the most affluent areas of this country. Construction is booming like crazy. Shopping malls are shooting out of the ground like mushrooms, but when you talk to people, you get a different resonance.

danwatt · #6 04-04-2008, 03:47 PM

Really? I live in socal and things are getting very slow. I work in the automotive refinish industry, and EVERY shop is slow. Jobbers are slow, distributors are slow, everything is. Nowhere near as good as it was same time last year, not even close. I have a buddy who is a manager at home depot, currently looking at laying off people. The housing industry has had a big slow down, a lot of construction workers have little work.

But if some people want to go play Baghdad Bob and pretend there are no problems at all, that's fine with me. I'll be busy preparing.

LaRondo · #7 04-04-2008, 04:03 PM

Well what can I say ...

Doctor my Eyes - Jackson Browne

Botnst · #8 04-04-2008, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LaRondo

You made a good post in another thread:

Situations are definitely no the same across all regions. Some are struggling, some appeare to be booming.

Light hearted though, would be, to think it's not possible or it can't happen here. There is a large scale consolidation under progress in this country. Ofcourse you'd love to ridicule me for that.

Strinking me as ridiculous, is the mentality of people, who are awlays looking for comparisons "Oh it's just like this and that again". It is not.

Why do people do this? Because they are unable to coop with the unknown.

However I am not an economic guru, nor am I a recessionist. I am just a cautious person, by nature. It has save and enabled me likewise, throughout my entire lifespan, so far.
It's always good to be prepared for the unexpected.

Stock market index reflects investment trends. It is of no significance to a person who does not own any stock.

Ps. Keep an eye on that house you mentioned up for sale. See how long it takes to be sold and for what ....

I live in one of the most affluent areas of this country. Construction is booming like crazy. Shopping malls are shooting out of the ground like mushrooms, but when you talk to people, you get a different resonance.

There's an offer on the house.

LaRondo · #9 04-04-2008, 05:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Botnst

There's an offer on the house.

Well, that's good. People will always need homes. Question is, if they can afford it.

Average duration for homes on the market in Los Angeles and Ventura county is approx. 6 months, which doesn't indicated if those properties were being sold or are being rented out eventually. In fact, more residential properties are being rented, statistically.

As you say, there is no consistency, not even within regions.
Around here, the area is being plastered with construction of commercial buildings. If I were to take pictures of the progession, I certainly wouldn't be able to keep up with it.

Yet, I also hear almost everybody mention how though it is to stay in business and to keep up with competition.

At the same time, we all know how the labor market keeps itself afloat.
New labor forces being ushered in from southern regions, so to speak, for low cost.
Another price the nation has to pay, being scammed out of their livelihoods.

Nough said.

LaRondo · #10 04-04-2008, 05:12 PM

Take a browse:

Ron Paul discusses issues of the monetary system with Fed Chair Bernanke.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTBrJNipytg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgnfxtrAFJQ&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4kxTkhwR_Q&feature=related

Straight Talk has never been comfortable to everybody.

TMAllison · #11 04-04-2008, 05:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LaRondo

At the same time, we all know how the labor market keeps itself afloat.
New labor forces being ushered in from southern regions, so to speak, for low cost.
Another price the nation has to pay, being scammed out of their livelihoods.

Nough said.

You could up to NorCal and pay $59.03 per hour raw cost for a UNION Tile Setter; or continue paying your lower SoCal rates.

LaRondo · #12 04-04-2008, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TMAllison

You could up to NorCal and pay $59.03 per hour raw cost for a UNION Tile Setter; or continue paying your lower SoCal rates.

You could go up to Fort McMurray, Canada and make a thousand bucks a day just by putting up drywall .... or work in a Mc Donalds for up to $18 per hour ....

Botnst · #13 04-04-2008, 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LaRondo

Well, that's good. People will always need homes. Question is, if they can afford it.

Average duration for homes on the market in Los Angeles and Ventura county is approx. 6 months, which doesn't indicated if those properties were being sold or are being rented out eventually. In fact, more residential properties are being rented, statistically.

As you say, there is no consistency, not even within regions.
Around here, the area is being plastered with construction of commercial buildings. If I were to take pictures of the progession, I certainly wouldn't be able to keep up with it.

Yet, I also hear almost everybody mention how though it is to stay in business and to keep up with competition.

At the same time, we all know how the labor market keeps itself afloat.
New labor forces being ushered in from southern regions, so to speak, for low cost.
Another price the nation has to pay, being scammed out of their livelihoods.

Nough said.

We're very much in a boom around here, due entirely to the oil & gas industry. House stay on the market a month or 2, rarely 6 months. Prices are very modest as compared to California, even after the collapse. A nice 3.5K ft^2 McMansion in a good neighborhood goes for $200K to $300K or so. Neighborhoods are springing-up faster than schools, resulting in a huge burden on existing tax base. You probably have experienced that where you live.

Back in the mid 1980's this place went into a bust cycle in which folks couldn't give homes away -- they'd just abandon them. I expect that in a couple of years (the speculators cannot sustain present prices indefinitely) there will be a bust here and the rest of the country will have a boom. That's been the pattern in the oil patch.

B

LUVMBDiesels · #14 04-04-2008, 08:48 PM

that the doom and gloom types have been predicting a recession or depression since 2001. If enough people start listening to chicken little will the sky fall down? Maybe in the economy it will. It seems that the numbers being put out are not that bad, yet 60% of Americans are feeling that the end is neigh. Maybe if the MSM started saying things were looking up perceptions would change and the economy would be seen as taking off. Once the perceptions change then reality would follow...

Of course this being an election year the MSM is hooting that it is 1932 all over again.

LaRondo · #15 04-05-2008, 12:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Botnst

We're very much in a boom around here, due entirely to the oil & gas industry. House stay on the market a month or 2, rarely 6 months. Prices are very modest as compared to California, even after the collapse. A nice 3.5K ft^2 McMansion in a good neighborhood goes for $200K to $300K or so. Neighborhoods are springing-up faster than schools, resulting in a huge burden on existing tax base. You probably have experienced that where you live.

Back in the mid 1980's this place went into a bust cycle in which folks couldn't give homes away -- they'd just abandon them. I expect that in a couple of years (the speculators cannot sustain present prices indefinitely) there will be a bust here and the rest of the country will have a boom. That's been the pattern in the oil patch.
B

Construction along the LA/Ventura county line seems to be unstoppable, yet it shifted to almost exclusively commercial. Huge office buildings and shopping malls.

We all know, $300k is hardly going to buy a 1-2 bedroom condo in this part of the country, even by going deeper into the Oxnard plains and Ventura, which is heavily Hispanic populated.
After that you will, with squeeks of joy over real estate prices, enter Santa Barbara County. RR's Sky Ranch is located there. The name is descriptive for the level of property prices.

It just goes on like this as you are wandering the coastal scenery.

If one is willing to move away from the coast, into the desert areas, a nice, brand spanking new home can be found around the $300K mark.
The secret to it, is the countless corporate headquarters that draw a consistent stream of people into the area. At the same time, just as many are moving away from the area, because its high cost of living.

Corporations pay staggering amounts of relocation incentives for highly qualified people. From overseas and everywhere, they come and nestle in executive positions.

However, we can't forget the huge areas covered by underprivileged people ...

California is no measure for the rest of the country.