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  #1  
Old 05-10-2008, 08:06 AM
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Video on peak oil

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/05/sexy-dancing-vs-peak-oil.php

Pretty good explanation.

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Old 05-10-2008, 08:10 AM
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Angry

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Originally Posted by Kuan View Post
I forwarded it to the end and she didn't get even topless. Worthless.
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  #3  
Old 05-10-2008, 08:23 AM
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Peak oil is where we have taken out half of ALL the crude oil we will ever find. she says. (Just so nobody thinks I wasn't listening to the message till the file loaded up and could forward to the end looking for naughty bits)

Fair enough. How do you know what the quantity of all the crude oil you will ever find is? We have predicted peak oil since BEFORE the first oil well was dug.
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  #4  
Old 05-10-2008, 08:25 AM
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It's youtube dude.
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  #5  
Old 05-10-2008, 08:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuan View Post
It's youtube dude.
Youtube has some naughty videos as long as you confirm your age.
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  #6  
Old 05-10-2008, 08:50 AM
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Cherry Pie

Wild Thing

Those show as much and if you notice the girl in Cherry Pie also gets a wet shirt.
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  #7  
Old 05-10-2008, 10:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aklim View Post

Fair enough. How do you know what the quantity of all the crude oil you will ever find is? We have predicted peak oil since BEFORE the first oil well was dug.
It is well know what the production of an individual oil well will look like. It is a bell curve. You can then look at the production of various countries. It looks like a bell curve as well. That is then extrapolated to the world as a whole.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hubbert_peak_oil_plot.svg

I know most people don't want to believe it, but seriously, how can anyone expect production to keep increasing? It's not like corn or soybeans that can be grown. It's not like water that keeps going through a cycle and returning as rain. It's not even like gold or copper that are recycled over and over again. It is removed from the ground and BURNT. It's gone. And there is not any more being produced. It's the most useful and valuable raw material in modern society and the vast majority of it is just being burnt, or being made into useless plastic trinkets being sold at Walmart. It's idiotic
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Old 05-10-2008, 10:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Mistel View Post
It is well know what the production of an individual oil well will look like. It is a bell curve. You can then look at the production of various countries. It looks like a bell curve as well. That is then extrapolated to the world as a whole.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hubbert_peak_oil_plot.svg

I know most people don't want to believe it, but seriously, how can anyone expect production to keep increasing? It's not like corn or soybeans that can be grown. It's not like water that keeps going through a cycle and returning as rain. It's not even like gold or copper that are recycled over and over again. It is removed from the ground and BURNT. It's gone. And there is not any more being produced. It's the most useful and valuable raw material in modern society and the vast majority of it is just being burnt, or being made into useless plastic trinkets being sold at Walmart. It's idiotic
Again, how do you know what the total amount of oil is? Without knowing that, how do you know you will peak, are peaking or have long peaked? Can it go on forever? Probably not. Have we reached the mid point? Without knowing what the end is, how can you tell? Well, predictions have said so for years only to be disproved. Oil wells that have been dry are suddenly producing again. Sorry, if you keep crying wolf, don't expect me to believe you even if you say "This time it is for real!".
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Last edited by aklim; 05-10-2008 at 10:34 PM.
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  #9  
Old 05-11-2008, 02:13 PM
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Individual wells do NOT produce with a bell curve shape. Neither do field level curves or any summary curves. You have exponential production, which is constant percentage decline (a straight line on semi-log paper) or hyperbolic, where the decline rate percentage changes at every point on the line. Different types of reservoir drive mechanisms have different production profiles. For example, offshore fields normally produce with strong water drivers so the production rate is flat for a long period of time, then when the water hits, it goes exponential until the well waters out and dies.

And as far as the peak oil curve being bell shaped, yeah it looks that way but a bell curve is based on the normal distribution. It is coincidental it is that shape, there are a lot of things that generate the same shape and that have no meaning. For example, you could plot alcohol consumption as a factor of age, none at young age, going sky high in the 20's, then coming down again later in life. What does it mean? Nothing.

Oil is being formed right now. Decaying plants and animals are being compacted into what will become hydrocarbons. Oil production can go up, it has been since oil was discovered. Of course it is finite but the growth of energy consumption is the driving force. Anybody thinking that it has all been discovered is naive at best.

I read an article that said the US would be running out of oil in 10 years. The article was written in 1945.





Quote:
Originally Posted by Mistel View Post
It is well know what the production of an individual oil well will look like. It is a bell curve. You can then look at the production of various countries. It looks like a bell curve as well. That is then extrapolated to the world as a whole.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hubbert_peak_oil_plot.svg

I know most people don't want to believe it, but seriously, how can anyone expect production to keep increasing? It's not like corn or soybeans that can be grown. It's not like water that keeps going through a cycle and returning as rain. It's not even like gold or copper that are recycled over and over again. It is removed from the ground and BURNT. It's gone. And there is not any more being produced. It's the most useful and valuable raw material in modern society and the vast majority of it is just being burnt, or being made into useless plastic trinkets being sold at Walmart. It's idiotic
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  #10  
Old 05-11-2008, 02:16 PM
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She doesn't even know what the definition of peak oil is. Guess the "treehugger" domain says it all....

Peak oil is when the maximum production RATE has been reached. It has nothing to do with half of anything.




Quote:
Originally Posted by aklim View Post
Peak oil is where we have taken out half of ALL the crude oil we will ever find. she says. (Just so nobody thinks I wasn't listening to the message till the file loaded up and could forward to the end looking for naughty bits)

Fair enough. How do you know what the quantity of all the crude oil you will ever find is? We have predicted peak oil since BEFORE the first oil well was dug.
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Old 05-11-2008, 02:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Emmerich View Post
She doesn't even know what the definition of peak oil is. Guess the "treehugger" domain says it all....

Peak oil is when the maximum production RATE has been reached. It has nothing to do with half of anything.
Just using her definition of it. Still she is good for one thing. Looking at the jiggling boobs.
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  #12  
Old 05-11-2008, 02:51 PM
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I have never looked at production curves for any oil well, oil field, or worldwide oil production.

Given that total lack of knowledge, I cannot fathom why one might assume that production at any level would have any particular curve, even at a stable price and stable technology.

But given the technological advances and given the increasing price of petroleum, it seems to me that any probability density function would be highly local.

I don't think anybody is so foolish as to suggest that petroleum can be consumed at an increasing rate in perpetuity. I also don't think anybody is smart enough to predict exactly (or even to a reasonably approximate estimate) when production will decline. I'll bet it will be within the next couple of decades, all things being equal.

But who in their right mind would be willing to assume that everything affecting oil will be equal? It maybe tomorrow that some genius in say, Berkeley, figures-out a reasonable substitute energy source that will make petroleum obsolete for energy production. It may not come for 100 years.

Given tomorrow or 100 years as the extremes of when a substitute is discovered, I'll bet on the near-side of half-way. I have no rational basis for that. Call it faith. But I'll bet a bottle of Marvel Mystery Oil to a bottle of Mother's Back to Black that I'm right.

B
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Old 05-11-2008, 04:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Botnst View Post
I have never looked at production curves for any oil well, oil field, or worldwide oil production.

Given that total lack of knowledge, I cannot fathom why one might assume that production at any level would have any particular curve, even at a stable price and stable technology.

But given the technological advances and given the increasing price of petroleum, it seems to me that any probability density function would be highly local.

I don't think anybody is so foolish as to suggest that petroleum can be consumed at an increasing rate in perpetuity. I also don't think anybody is smart enough to predict exactly (or even to a reasonably approximate estimate) when production will decline. I'll bet it will be within the next couple of decades, all things being equal.

But who in their right mind would be willing to assume that everything affecting oil will be equal? It maybe tomorrow that some genius in say, Berkeley, figures-out a reasonable substitute energy source that will make petroleum obsolete for energy production. It may not come for 100 years.

Given tomorrow or 100 years as the extremes of when a substitute is discovered, I'll bet on the near-side of half-way. I have no rational basis for that. Call it faith. But I'll bet a bottle of Marvel Mystery Oil to a bottle of Mother's Back to Black that I'm right.

B
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M._King_Hubbert
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  #14  
Old 05-11-2008, 05:55 PM
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You guys take a perfectly good discussion about a sexy girl and turn it into something serious.
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  #15  
Old 05-11-2008, 06:09 PM
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Olive "Twin Peaks" Oyle?

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