http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/10/26/INEM13MA7B.DTL&type=printable

Iraq today - rhetoric and reality
Joel Brinkley, SF Chronicle

Sunday, October 26, 2008

John McCain likes to say, "we're winning in Iraq, and we'll come home with victory."

Maybe so, but it depends on how you measure victory.

Without question, violence in Iraq has declined. Sectarian violence has diminished, fewer people are dying, the number of deadly bombings has dropped. But let's put this in perspective.

I was first posted to Iraq for several months at the end of 2003. And beginning that November, a loud bomb blast jolted me out of bed almost every morning. Over the next few weeks, insurgents began killing foreigners they happened to see on the streets. At about this time, the end of 2003, Iraq came to be seen as the most dangerous place in the world.

Of course, in the following years, the violence increased manyfold. Particularly after the bombing of a Shiite mosque in Samarra in February 2006, Iraq fell into a state something close to hell on Earth. But then, after the American troop escalation early this year, violence dropped precipitously. Today, it's at about the level I endured in 2003, during those explosions almost every morning - only now the streets are even more dangerous for foreigners. It's been frozen at that level for months.

Public attention to Iraq has plummeted, as has press coverage. The number of American correspondents based there has fallen from 219 a year ago to 39 today. In recent U.S. election-related polls, only about 20 percent of those questioned said Iraq remains a top priority. Economic concerns are trumping the war, as they should, while McCain's, and President Bush's, descriptions of the status quo in Iraq are serving to anesthetize the electorate so that no one seems to know or care about what's really going on.

A few days ago, I spoke to an Iraqi journalist about life in Baghdad right now.

"You can't ever trust the relative sense of security because it may be different for you," this journalist said. "After 6 or 7 p.m., you can't be outside. It's not safe. After dark, I go inside and hide somewhere. I fall asleep very frightened." The journalist cautioned me not to use her name. If it got out that she was consorting with foreigners, insurgents "would kill me and my family."

Neither the White House nor the McCain campaign will tell you any of this. Without saying so explicitly, the Republicans leave the impression that Iraq is now a nearly pacific place. But let's look at the actual statistics for September - as compiled for the Brookings Institution's Iraq Index.

Last month, 98 Iraqi police officers were killed. On about two days out of every three, a bomb killed two or more people. Overall, those bombings killed 164 people and wounded 366 others. These and other attacks killed 500 Iraqi civilians, about 17 a day. Seventeen American soldiers died; 102 were wounded.

About 19,000 Iraqis remain in American military prisons. Almost 3 million Iraqis driven from their homes still are not willing or able to return. Even now, almost five years after the invasion, Baghdad residents get just over 11 hours of electricity each day, compared with 20 hours before the war.

At the same time, no one is kidnapping foreigners any longer. Helicopters aren't being shot down. Attacks on oil pipelines have virtually ceased. As for the carnage, while the violence remains frighteningly high, in January 2007 there were at least two bombings every day, and more than 3,700 Iraqi civilians died.

The big news stories in Iraq today tell of the bustling street life, children playing in the parks, schools reopening, some blast walls in Baghdad coming down. That is a welcome change - so it is news. The run-of-the-mill violence is no longer news. But it continues, relegated to one-paragraph news stories. Here are headlines from a sample of these stories from the first three days of this week:

Seven killed, 20 injured in three separate attacks in Iraq;

Two killed in Baghdad bombings;

Police defuse roadside bomb in central Baghdad;

New wave of violence against journalists in Iraq;

Bombs strike bus, taxi in Baghdad, killing 4;

Iraqi police kill female suicide bomber;

15 killed, 44 wounded in violence by Tuesday afternoon.

My point is not to diminish the genuine accomplishments of the U.S. military. Iraq is less violent. But it remains so far from the ostensible goal - a unified, democratic, safe and stable nation, as Bush, McCain and GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin put it - that when the Republicans suggest it's just within reach, they are foisting a lie upon the American people.

Joel Brinkley is a professor of journalism at Stanford University and a former foreign policy correspondent for the New York Times.

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1986 300SDL, 362K
1984 300D, 138K

I saw this one when I was there:



TAKE THEIR GAS AND KICK THEIR ASS

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1991 560 SEC AMG, 199k <---- 300 hp 10:1 ECE euro HV ...

1995 E 420, 170k "The Red Plum" (sold)

2015 BMW 535i xdrive awd Stage 1 DINAN, 6k, <----364 hp

1967 Mercury Cougar, 49k

2013 Jaguar XF, 20k <----340 hp Supercharged, All Wheel Drive (sold)

Hey bwah, that's America, love it or leave it. (spits terbaccy juice)

The surge is working. Yes, it's working as a band-aid to provide some PR cover for the Nov. election. In actuality, it has further extended us in this no-win debacle.

I don't buy this crap. The Sunnis were getting fed up with AQ regardless of surge or no-surge. The "Sunni Awakening" is a lot of what has brought about this change of events, not the blessed surge. The Shia/Sunni rancor is as bad as it ever was. Meanwhile, they're sitting on a surplus while we bleed money and blood.

Tar-baby from hell.

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1986 300SDL, 362K
1984 300D, 138K

I'd say it is a move in the right direction and while it is not perfect, it is a damn sight better than BEFORE the surge.

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01 Ford Excursion Powerstroke
99 E300 Turbodiesel
91 Vette with 383 motor
05 Polaris Sportsman 800 EFI
06 Polaris Sportsman 500 EFI
03 SeaDoo GTX SC Red
03 SeaDoo GTX SC Yellow
04 Tailgator 21 ft Toy Hauler
11 Harley Davidson 883 SuperLow

That's the way it appears, but is it really progress? I think it's just getting further stuck. Playing policeman to a 1400 or so year old feud that shows little sign of evolving. OBL calls Iraq the central front in their war cause it's their surest bet to bankrupt us, IMO.

The surge has hastened that end.

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1986 300SDL, 362K
1984 300D, 138K

America, Europe, etc, etc. Pretty much most of the world except when a dictator holds you in. Don't like it, leave it. Find someplace better. Short of mentioned dictator, what else is keeping you around?

So after the election, it goes back to pre surge levels? That your prediction from your crystal ball or from some face reading?

I'm sure they were but without the surge, how far would "fed up" get going?

You promising that if we left tomorrow, it won't come back to us someday? How did you know this? Reading OBL's face?

__________________
01 Ford Excursion Powerstroke
99 E300 Turbodiesel
91 Vette with 383 motor
05 Polaris Sportsman 800 EFI
06 Polaris Sportsman 500 EFI
03 SeaDoo GTX SC Red
03 SeaDoo GTX SC Yellow
04 Tailgator 21 ft Toy Hauler
11 Harley Davidson 883 SuperLow

A whole lot more than it was before. Now, if it stalemates or slides backwards, I'll admit it is not working.

I think we have done lot more to that end than Iraq can do when we screwed with Fannie.

Not if we can recover from this mess. If we cannot, Iraq won't matter.

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01 Ford Excursion Powerstroke
99 E300 Turbodiesel
91 Vette with 383 motor
05 Polaris Sportsman 800 EFI
06 Polaris Sportsman 500 EFI
03 SeaDoo GTX SC Red
03 SeaDoo GTX SC Yellow
04 Tailgator 21 ft Toy Hauler
11 Harley Davidson 883 SuperLow

Joel Brinkley/San Francisco Chronicle; say no more.

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1993 300E 2.8 185k miles
2006 Mustang Convertible 4.0 Eaton Supercharged

All moot. It's an illegal war. Surge good, bad, no matter. But the bigger picture is people were paid vast sums of money to stop fighting, just as they once were to start fighting. Numbers are skewed to the highest bidder. And there happens to be only one bidder.

Messenger killer.

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1984 300TD

Dude, THAT is some powerful rebuttal!! I'm impressed!!!
How many months have you spent in Iraq reporting on events? How many Iraqi journalists have you spoken to personally?

The guy makes excellent sense. Your response here is more proof, if more was needed, that you are not a thinking person. You pull out your pre-conceptions, give them a good polish, and display them for the world to see.

BTW, San Franciscans and all Californians pay taxes and their sons and daughters come home in coffins when killed in war.

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1986 300SDL, 362K
1984 300D, 138K

When an irritant is removed, irritation goes down.

Of course I don't know exactly what will happen regardless of what we do. Except I'm pretty certain that we'd stop bleeding blood and treasure did we withdraw.

As for me leaving, no, it's you who must leave.

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1986 300SDL, 362K
1984 300D, 138K

It deserves no more rebuttal than that. ANY political OPINION in the San Francisco Chroincle is biased so far left it's not worth reading (which I didn't). You saying that I am not a thinking person when you let the ultra liberal media do all your thinking for you is ironic. You are a bad joke.

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1993 300E 2.8 185k miles
2006 Mustang Convertible 4.0 Eaton Supercharged

Sorry man, I can't respect that. The guy is also a professor at Stanford, which is home to all sorts of conservative dignitaries, George Schultz among them.

There is some loopiness in SF but it's also one of the main financial centers of the west coast.

You display your ignorance here for all to see.

ance: suffix transforming verbs into nouns; ______ ance, to be in a state of _____ing;

ignore-ance: to be in a state of ignoring.

I'll sum it up for you. Violence is down to levels it was at around the end of 2003. Foreigners still take their lives in their hands if they go out in public. This 'the surge is working' crap is 98% spin. We're no closer to leaving than we were before the surge, we're just spending more money now.

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1986 300SDL, 362K
1984 300D, 138K

I reckon, the usual congregation ...