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  #1  
Old 01-29-2009, 06:01 PM
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I'm going to say it. It's Depression not Recession

I don't think we are in a Recession any more. I think we are in, or are about to fall into, a Depression. Yes, I know there are no soup lines for doctors and lawyers yet, but I think that kind of desperation is on the way.

- Peter.

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  #2  
Old 01-29-2009, 06:14 PM
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We already have people up here complaining that their unemployment insurance benefits are running out, and they last about 40 weeks.
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  #3  
Old 01-29-2009, 07:55 PM
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What's all this talk about depression? Sure we all get the blues or down in the dumps from time to time, but that's not something you need prozac for, for gosh sakes. Take a walk around the block, go visit some friends or family, see a good comedy movie, I hear that "Mall Cop" is a hoot . . .

what? It's a severe economic economic downturn characterized by decreased business activity, high unemployment, and falling prices? Oh, that's very different.

Never mind.
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  #4  
Old 01-29-2009, 08:02 PM
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EMERGENCY! Break out the spliffs!
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  #5  
Old 01-29-2009, 08:28 PM
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I am going to go out on a limb here. I predict that the 4th quarter of 2008 will be the worst performance in terms of GDP. The economy will show improvement from here, for the next several years at least. The stock market will go sideways or rise.

The US still has a problem with dependance on foreign oil and in the next decade or so that will be the next big problem to deal with. Sounds like Obama has a good hold on that.

Now is the time to buy real estate.

I am not a genius, but I did call the top of oil last summer in this thread.

Oil drops for 2 days in a row
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  #6  
Old 01-29-2009, 08:45 PM
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Wow, fortune-telling and foreseeing a worsening economy. Perhaps you should go on CNN? They love "life sucks" and "we're all going to die" talk. Saying it doesn't change anything, except you now have a fifty-fifty shot at being right and be able to tell other people about how smart you are (if you were right; if you were wrong, we probably won't read your apology, will we?).

Wow, a depression, huh? A little early for that call, isn't it? The credit crunch has been going for a whole four months now. I never understood dramatic negativism - it must suck to go through life like that.
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  #7  
Old 01-29-2009, 08:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pos View Post
wow, fortune-telling and foreseeing a worsening economy. Perhaps you should go on cnn? They love "life sucks" and "we're all going to die" talk. Saying it doesn't change anything, except you now have a fifty-fifty shot at being right and be able to tell other people about how smart you are (if you were right; if you were wrong, we probably won't read your apology, will we?).

Wow, a depression, huh? A little early for that call, isn't it? The credit crunch has been going for a whole four months now. I never understood dramatic negativism - it must suck to go through life like that.

x2...............
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  #8  
Old 01-29-2009, 08:55 PM
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I'm not ready to call depression until we see how 2009 plays out.

Right now I'm hoping for the best. Because I rather be working than standing in some damn soup line.
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  #9  
Old 01-29-2009, 10:17 PM
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Originally Posted by POS View Post
Wow, fortune-telling and foreseeing a worsening economy. Perhaps you should go on CNN? They love "life sucks" and "we're all going to die" talk. Saying it doesn't change anything, except you now have a fifty-fifty shot at being right and be able to tell other people about how smart you are (if you were right; if you were wrong, we probably won't read your apology, will we?).
Well, it will take some time before I'm proven right or wrong. But I forsee things getting far worse before they get any better and this time we don't have a WWII to fix it for us. There is no manufacturing to pull us out of it because now, unlike after WWII we don't make everything the rest of the world needs or wants. And most of what we consume is made by the rest of the world.

What exactly is there then that will generate the growth necessary to pull the US back up?

I don't see anything and absent that how is it going to happen?

Quote:
Wow, a depression, huh? A little early for that call, isn't it?
We'll see. For the record I'll be perfectly happy to be proven wrong.

- Peter.
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Formerly...
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1984 123 200
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  #10  
Old 01-29-2009, 10:17 PM
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Recession, depression. Whatever you call it, its a purging and cleansing process that shakes out the junk in the system. Its like vomit and diarrhea, not pleasant but sometimes necessary.

I have one friend who claims to have sold all his holdings when the Dow was hovering around 14000. Unfortunately he doesn't have a job now, so everyone gets hit one way or another.
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  #11  
Old 01-29-2009, 10:47 PM
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Originally Posted by pj67coll View Post
Well, it will take some time before I'm proven right or wrong. But I forsee things getting far worse before they get any better and this time we don't have a WWII to fix it for us. There is no manufacturing to pull us out of it because now, unlike after WWII we don't make everything the rest of the world needs or wants. And most of what we consume is made by the rest of the world.

What exactly is there then that will generate the growth necessary to pull the US back up?

I don't see anything and absent that how is it going to happen?



We'll see. For the record I'll be perfectly happy to be proven wrong.

- Peter.
You are right in that regard. Perhaps people will learn to live more modest and simple lives. Basing an economy on ever-increasing needless spending (the trend we have been on) is a recipe for ultimate disaster.

So now the Gov is trying to figure out how to compel more people to buy new cars. Makes sense, now that they are stake holders. Only it pushes more people into debt they don't need. I thought the bailout was a bad idea, but I may be wrong.

The best bet is a WPA type program for rebuilding America's infrastructure, much of which is 50+ years old and needs replacement. There is plenty of steel and concrete and muscle available.
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  #12  
Old 01-30-2009, 01:43 AM
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Originally Posted by raymr View Post
Recession, depression. Whatever you call it, its a purging and cleansing process that shakes out the junk in the system. Its like vomit and diarrhea, not pleasant but sometimes necessary.
I'm not sure that covers it. I mean perhaps in the long run but that doesn't mean some serious unpleasantness isn't ahead of us.

I've had a good bit of anxiety in the back of my mind for years at our steady loss of manufacturing and the growing trade deficit. Such stuff will not continue indefinitely w/o some serious upheaval.

And we're just invested billions of dollars of borrowed money on a really bad investment -- "just" as in for the last 6 or 7 years.

OBL and crew have to be rejoicing at our predicament as they hoped to prove the historical adage: 'Afghanistan -- where empires go to die' at our expense, with Iraq being part of the death blow. BHO is talking about redoubling our effort in Afghanistan (the good war).

2002, 2003 was the time for that, not now.
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  #13  
Old 01-30-2009, 01:46 AM
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Originally Posted by pj67coll View Post
Well, it will take some time before I'm proven right or wrong. But I forsee things getting far worse before they get any better and this time we don't have a WWII to fix it for us. There is no manufacturing to pull us out of it because now, unlike after WWII we don't make everything the rest of the world needs or wants. And most of what we consume is made by the rest of the world.

What exactly is there then that will generate the growth necessary to pull the US back up?

I don't see anything and absent that how is it going to happen?
Boeing is the big one left. That and munitions (oh boy).

Even silicon valley is saying we're in trouble if we don't improve our science education as Asia is prepared to eat our lunch in that category.
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  #14  
Old 01-30-2009, 04:37 AM
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  #15  
Old 01-30-2009, 08:33 AM
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