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  #1  
Old 05-20-2009, 06:54 PM
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7 years into Global COOLING!

for those who minds are not completely closed.....

http://www.icecap.us/

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Old 05-20-2009, 07:19 PM
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I wouldn't exactly call it a cooling trend. Look closely at this graph which comes from the same website:



2005 was in fact one of two hottest years on record, the other one was 1998. True, the warming trend that we saw in the 90's has come to a halt, but who knows for how long and it's certainly not a cooling trend yet. We'll know more in a few years. Given how weak the sun's radiation is right now (solar cycle 24 is barely coming to life), I'm not at all surprised that the warming has taken a pause.
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Old 05-20-2009, 07:21 PM
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Interesting, but it hardly seems to be an objective source. Even their name belies the axe they have to grind.
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Old 05-20-2009, 07:28 PM
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I don't have access to the data set, but it seems like a case of "lying with statistics." They could have chosen many other intervals over which to make a linear best fit that would have shown a zero or positive slope. Go back one more year, and it looks like the line would be flat. Eliminate 2009 and the line would be flat or positive. Start at 1999, the line would be very positive, but start at 1998 and the line would be very negative. Basically, the use of the linear best fit on small portions of these data amounts to bullsht.
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Old 05-20-2009, 07:32 PM
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Originally Posted by JonL View Post
Interesting, but it hardly seems to be an objective source. Even their name belies the axe they have to grind.
I usually ignore the opinions (and there are plenty of strong ones on that site) and look at the raw data. Judging from the opinions, I'd agree that source is hardly objective. For example, even though they claim that "natural forces are about three times stronger than the maximum possible effects from CO2 increases", they also say that "any initiatives aimed at reducing CO2 emissions for the purpose of reducing global warming are entirely without merit and serve no purpose whatsoever." So they essentially admit that CO2 is a heat-trapping gas that probably has some noticeable effect, yet they say it makes no sense to control it. Is this an oil lobby website?
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Old 05-20-2009, 07:35 PM
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Originally Posted by JonL View Post
I don't have access to the data set, but it seems like a case of "lying with statistics." They could have chosen many other intervals over which to make a linear best fit that would have shown a zero or positive slope. Go back one more year, and it looks like the line would be flat. Eliminate 2009 and the line would be flat or positive. Start at 1999, the line would be very positive, but start at 1998 and the line would be very negative. Basically, the use of the linear best fit on small portions of these data amounts to bullsht.
Absolutely. Somewhere else I saw a plot of 5-year mean temps, and that way you can still see a warming trend even for this decade. That's why I said ignore the opinions and study the data yourself.
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Old 05-20-2009, 08:14 PM
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Originally Posted by DieselAddict View Post
I wouldn't exactly call it a cooling trend. Look closely at this graph which comes from the same website:



2005 was in fact one of two hottest years on record, the other one was 1998. True, the warming trend that we saw in the 90's has come to a halt, but who knows for how long and it's certainly not a cooling trend yet. We'll know more in a few years. Given how weak the sun's radiation is right now (solar cycle 24 is barely coming to life), I'm not at all surprised that the warming has taken a pause.
Look at it - the co2 line mirrors economic output.
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Old 05-20-2009, 08:22 PM
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Ha! I just noticed the graph above uses the 1979-1998 temp average as the baseline. Why use the ending year of 1998? Because 1998 was the hottest year on record which bumps the baseline and exaggerates the "cooling" trend of 2000's. Forget that website. I just found this one that seems pretty objective:
http://www.quaker.org/clq/2007/TQE158-EN-GlobalWarming.html

In fact I think this is one of the best that I've seen so far. The author considers all the variables and uses rather simple analytical methods to look at the main pieces of data, such as temperature, solar variability and fossil fuel usage, and plots them against one another. Very interesting! Apparently, the burning of fossil fuels has 2-3 times as much effect on 1850-2007 temperatures as variations in solar activity.
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Old 05-20-2009, 08:46 PM
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I personally don't put much stock in most of the temperature charts because of the issue of calibration. The real data is in ice and rock cores - we know what the earth looked like in the past and we know what the concentration of CO2 and methane was at the time by looking at these cores. This is what we are approaching, and why most of the world's scientists are going ape****:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene-Eocene_Thermal_Maximum

Most of your right wing deniers are utterly clueless about the methane cycle. We really do not know at what point of CO2 saturation it is initiated, but we know by looking at history and pre-history, ice cores and rock cores and geological studies that massive amounts of methane from decayed organic matter is locked up in perma-frost and when global warming warms the areas where this methane is stored, well methane, you want a greenhouse gas, it makes CO2 look like a rank amateur:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_release

I just don't get the right wingers. Look at the Wiki's above: if the right wingers are wrong and we do nothing, we will all die. If they are right and lefties do something, we get a cleaner environment. I think I'd rather take a chance on the lefties being wrong. This alone is enough to convince me:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_shrinkage
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Old 05-20-2009, 09:03 PM
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The feedback cycle is probably what scares me the most. It's not directly the temperature increase from human emissions that might kill us, but what it may lead to or trigger, like the accelerated melting of the permafrost and warming of the oceans that will unleash the greenhouse gases stored naturally there. And once there's no more ice to melt and cool the oceans, the oceans will heat up quickly, and the land masses even more so. One big question is what the Sun is going to do. If it remains stuck in its current minimum, it will help take some of the steam out of global warming as has been happening in the last few years, but it will also temporarily give the deniers more credibility and quite possibly make people more complacent which could be very dangerous. There's nothing wrong with being skeptical and analytical, in fact it's good, but too often the truth is not what's being sought and propagated.
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  #11  
Old 05-20-2009, 09:05 PM
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Global Cooling is a result of Global Warming.
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Old 05-20-2009, 09:09 PM
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I am trying very hard to fix global cooling. Very hard. I'm just not helping all that much it appears.
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Old 05-20-2009, 11:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tankdriver View Post
Global Cooling is a result of Global Warming.

Thats the best one!!........

Put another way... When the fire goes OUT..the skillet gets HOT!!!.......LMASO!!!


Oh well ...Doing my part....Smokin da hippies!!.........
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  #14  
Old 05-21-2009, 12:11 AM
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Interesting, but it hardly seems to be an objective source. Even their name belies the axe they have to grind.
This bit from the column on the left is sorta telling:

Something is terribly wrong with the individual government science bodies who did not come forward and inform their own leaders when it was certain that global warming had ended, or when there was sufficient data to claim that we are now in a cooling trend.

Oh, it's certain that global warming has ended? How is this different from the sort of stuff that comes from Al Gore's mouth, claims that the science is conclusive, that AGW is an absolute fact, etc?
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Old 05-21-2009, 12:12 AM
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Originally Posted by Matt SD300 View Post
Thats the best one!!........

Put another way... When the fire goes OUT..the skillet gets HOT!!!.......LMASO!!!


Oh well ...Doing my part....Smokin da hippies!!.........
Dream on, sweet prince.

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