How Much Oil? - PeachParts Mercedes-Benz Forum

Zeus · #1 06-07-2010, 10:50 AM

Is left?

The spill has got me thinking about oil and everything it means. We need oil for everything, our entire civilization is built upon it. Electric cars, nuclear power, solar energies, etc. are a good start in terms of diversifying our energy requirements and sources, but they can't even put a dent in what we need from oil.

So how much is really left? From what I can ascertain, discoveries of new oil deposits are getting rarer. Global consumption of oil is increasing.

I believe these last two statements are correct, barring some miracle discovery of vast quantities of oil somewhere.

At the rate the world is using oil, it can't last forever. 10-30 years? Maybe 40? Then what? It's frightening to think.

I'm the last person to believe in conspiracy theories and the-sky-is-falling stories. I try to approach things rationally and calmly. However, I must admit this issue is worrying. Our collective leaders aren't exactly pushing new technologies as much as they should, IMO.

Thoughts?

Emmerich · #2 06-07-2010, 11:12 AM

I read an article in a technical magazine that estimated we would run out of oil in 10 years at current consumption and productions rates. This article was written in 1945.

aklim · #3 06-07-2010, 11:21 AM

I don't know how much so speculation is pretty much that. IIRC, they had a documentary that was about this. They predicted the first oil well would run out even before it was sunk. Generally speaking, we have probably tapped a lot of what is easy to get at. As to how much is really left, well, who really knows? It is little more than a guestimate that changes from day to day. 50 years ago, didn't they predict the same thing? Seemed pretty real at that time. When I was a kid, global cooling was a real thing. I know my parents were worried about how it would affect them. Today, it is global warming.

I tend to believe that the govt is there to maintain order and NOT impose things that they believe is good for us. They are not our parents. I look on them as referees as opposed to players in the game.

Zeus · #4 06-07-2010, 11:23 AM

Emmerich - Lol, yes, I came across similar stuff while reading/researching.

However, I do believe that our ability to estimate reserves has increased since then.

Oil is finite, we cannot produce it. This much is true.

Discoveries of meaningful deposits have decreased. This much is also true unless the Big Oil baddies are hiding it for political reasons, etc. This is conspiracy territory, so I'm not going there.

Our technologies with respect to finding oil have increased, and yet we have not found new, easily accessible deposits. We have the tar sands and potential deep ocean deposits, but those require a lot of resources.

As it stands, our entire North American society depends on cheap oil. We have insane daily commutes in major cities (the Toronto daily exodus/invasion is a sight to behold, it was recently ranked the worst commute in the world, ahead of both LA and New York), overnight delivery of luxury goods via neverending truck hauls, etc. It's not sustainable.

I almost think gas needs to hit $5/L for our societies to change. We shouldn't have 100,000 cars within a 20Km radius all going to essentially the same area, every day.

I'm actually now feeling guilty about the GL purchase.

Or I could be dead wrong and I'll laugh at this post in a few years (as perhaps some are doing now).

I really do hope that is the case.

cmbdiesel · #5 06-07-2010, 12:18 PM

You may have inadvertently stubbled onto BP's strategy for ending the oil spill... eventually, it will run dry...

Hatterasguy · #6 06-07-2010, 12:43 PM

Its hard to tell. I'm sure the higher ups at the oil companies have a pretty good idea, but naturaly that information would be a closely guarded secret.

In the end its all guessing.

MercFan · #7 06-07-2010, 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeus

Oil is finite, we cannot produce it. This much is true.

Or is it... I actually read an article (somewhere) where Russian scientists had strong theories that the Earth continues to produce the oil deep inside its upper crust ("deep hot biosphere" theory published in 1992) and if that's true then it's not a finite resource...

4x4_Welder · #8 06-07-2010, 12:55 PM

It does make sense, but there are many theories surrounding the production of oil.
I have always though that oil was just aged dinosaur crap though

JohnM. · #9 06-07-2010, 12:56 PM

The sad thing is the entire capacity of the Deep Water Horizon well is only enough for 2 days worth of US crude consumption. Yet there is enough in there to leak for 30-40 years at 15,000 barrels a day or whatever the actual number is if they didn't cap it. We have to accept that if we want oil we need the middle eastern oil fields. Otherwise, its just a matter of when not if we come up with a cleaner energy alternative. Also raising the price of gas here in the US would change people's everyday usage very quickly. Some of the cheapest gas in the world is in America and we use 1/4 of all crude?

Zeus · #10 06-07-2010, 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MercFan

Or is it... I actually read an article (somewhere) where Russian scientists had strong theories that the Earth continues to produce the oil deep inside its upper crust ("deep hot biosphere" theory published in 1992) and if that's true then it's not a finite resource...

I read that as well...however it's only a theory at the moment.

I think Canada - and Canadians - use the most oil per capita or something. Granted we have winter heating to contend with, but an increase to $4-5/L would certainly dramatically alter day-to-day life here.

Pavka007 · #11 06-07-2010, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeus

I read that as well...however it's only a theory at the moment.

I think Canada - and Canadians - use the most oil per capita or something. Granted we have winter heating to contend with, but an increase to $4-5/L would certainly dramatically alter day-to-day life here.

I don't think that the price is a solution. In the UK at the moment is almost £1.20 a litter, even with the bad exchange rate still $1.70 per liter so this is like $6.47 per US Gallon. In Europe is almost the same. Europe is 3 time bigger than US as population so even with all the public transport in place they still use more than US as a whole. So...perhaps we really need to look for a whole new concept of moving around?? Who knows

MercFan · #12 06-07-2010, 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pavka007

So...perhaps we really need to look for a whole new concept of moving around??

Tele-porting...

aklim · #13 06-07-2010, 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MercFan

Tele-porting...

With what energy? Also, what about the other stuff that is oil tainted? Plastics, medicine, etc, etc

Skid Row Joe · #14 06-07-2010, 03:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zeus

Is left?

So how much is really left?

At the rate the world is using oil, it can't last forever. 10-30 years? Maybe 40? Then what? It's frightening to think.

There's more than we could possibly ever use or even find on earth. The earth continually makes it. We're not running out of oil.

The sky is not falling.

Skid Row Joe · #15 06-07-2010, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Emmerich

I read an article in a technical magazine that estimated we would run out of oil in 10 years at current consumption and productions rates. This article was written in 1945.

LMAO!

See what I mean......?