Many of you may have heard of Jim Puplava's "Financial Sense Newshour" web site. He interviews a lot of interesting people related to finance and markets. Recently he recorded two outstanding interviews; the first one is with Nicole Foss, who writes under the nom de plume Stoneleigh for the the web site The Automatic Earth. She is very much a big picture thinker on the financial landscape, and explains very clearly how our banking system has morphed into a giant ponzi scheme, run by a wealthy gambling elite. She also does an excellent job of explaining why today's current economic troubles will result in tomorrows extreme energy shortages. You'll find the interview here in MP3 form:

Preparing For And Learning To Survive The Coming Perfect Financial Storm.

By the way, you can also read a transcript of Nicole's interview at her site here:

Jim Puplava Interviews Stoneleigh

Now for the second interview...

Twenty two years ago Joseph Tainter wrote a book called "The Collapse Of Complex Societies." He had studied many ancient societies that the archeological records show achieved pinnacles of development, and suffered surprisingly complete crashes to much lower levels of societal complexity. What he noted in each case in which we have reasonable records to go by is that all societies seem to employ increasing complexity to solve societal problems. However, beyond a certain point the complexity appears to have diminishing returns, and eventually complexity proves a death knell to civilizations. In his interview with Mr. Puplava Prof. Tainter draws many intriguing parallels between the collapse process that Rome underwent, and our own society's approach to problems like health care and taxation. This is really a thought-provoking interview, regardless of your political affiliation (in fact, both of these interviews are about as free of political affiliation as you are likely to ever see in a thoughtful discussion about society's problems). Here is the link to the Tainter interview:

FSN In-Depth: Joesph Tainter and the Collapse of Complex Societies

Some things to think about while you're wrenching away in the garage...

Kurt

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- '79 240D - engine swap complete! Engine broken in! 28-31 mpg! Lovin' the ride!
- '86 190D (W201-126) - 2.5 NA engine, 5 speed, cloth interior, manual climate controls, 33-34 mpg (sold to forum member).

Sure a collapse is possible. All civilizations of any stature have collapsed eventually. How soon this will be for us I don't know. Ferguson has often stated that his concern is "your fine until your not fine". In other words we won't decline gradually over time, we will go along just fine and then fall off the cliff.

- Peter.

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2021 Chevrolet Spark
Formerly...
2000 GMC Sonoma
1981 240D 4spd stick. 347000 miles. Deceased Feb 14 2021
2002 Kia Rio. Worst crap on four wheels
1981 240D 4spd stick. 389000 miles.
1984 123 200
1979 116 280S
1972 Cadillac Sedan DeVille
1971 108 280S

I think we will recover, albeit, VERY slowly.

I hear and read about how this downturn has forced a lot of individuals to rethink and redirect how they manage money...more in line with folks borne of the depression era. I think the country as a whole leveraged debt far too much anyway.

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2009 ML350 (106K) - Family vehicle
2001 CLK430 Cabriolet (80K) - Wife's car
2005 BMW 645CI (138K) - My daily driver
2016 Mustang (32K) - Daughter's car

Ancient societies did not have computers, I fail to see how "complexity" is a problem in today's world.

I do, however, see a coming cataclysm in the world's markets.

Heading there? Seems like we've been there, done that.

The US is in decline. The moment it could have all changed was the 2000 primary election, where a frat-boy supposedly x-dope addict controlled by some of the most profligate villains in US history won over a decorated bona fide war hero. The result is seen, you are probably right. We get what we deserve.

Dang Jolly... You need to calm down, Ask CLKman for a Beer!!!!! Its been 10 years, and that last 2 that "frat-boy" has been pretty much out of the news. so Chillax my friend.

I don't think one man is to blame for this. we're all on this ride together. Drink up and make the best of things.

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The world is clearly coming to an end. Thank goodness I invested my entire retirement account and savings into gold.

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TC
Current stable:
- 2004 Mazda RALLYWANKEL
- 2007 Saturn sky redline
- 2004 Explorer...under surgery.

Past: 135i, GTI, 300E, 300SD, 300SD, Stealth

Yes I need to get the mogg , a solar powered jerky dehydrater, a couple of stoutly built chicks to carry wood on their backs, the ak's and a truckload of ammo!

Nope, we are headed for a slow recovery, followed by another bubble, followed by another crash, followed by another recovery...

I don't know how the US economy will do compared to the rest of the world, but things will continue to be done and there will be future opportunities for anyone whose willing to put down their beer and get off the couch.

If you look at great civilizations and how they fail it is almost always because they were defeated in war.

Egypt fell when Assryians attacked during a moment of weakness. Then the Ethopians attacked from the south and Egypt was not equipped to fight a two front war.

Egypt was weakened by a King that wanted to set up a country where the state would take care of the poorest and the rich did everything they could to stop him from being successful. The rich decided that the best way to destroy the King was to oppose everything he did, no matter what, and make the government so small it could no longer deal with any problem.

They did and when the neighbors saw Egypt in disarray they struck.

Rome fell, but historians know that parts of the Roman Empire lasted until about 1490. Again, war did them in when they were weaken by internal strife. The invaders slowly chipped away at Rome until finally there was nothing left.

England was broke after WW 2 and could not manage its' Empire, so they had to cut everybody loose.

Right now the US is going through a time when one political party is doing everything it can to keep the other party from making any progress. The US is also involved in two wars.

Sound familiar?

The 2 wars we are in now are not epic enough to bring about our down fall. (Compared to the Wars of history, they are kinda pathetic) I'm sorry, but not even ww2 (our most epic war) was even enough to bring us down. (yes if we would have done nothing it would have brought about our downfall, but I wouldn't say it was some thing we couldn't handle, thus cause our down fall.) Until we are faced with an equally large force ready to put boots on our ground we will not fall because of war.

What makes America different then other historical super powers is we are a dynamic nation... yes before ww2 we could have got our butts kicked, but after, we were the super power. (the soviets were starving their population to keep up with us) not only is our military dynamic, our system of government is dynamic, as is our economy.

Rome is the closest you get to a dynamic historical super power, because they were a republic. but in the end yes they failed... but if the US has a run as long as the Romans we are just getting started!!!!!!!!

As for the demand for smaller government causing our downfall...... before ww2 we were a nation of farmers, our dynamic government allowed for us to call the farmers into service for our country and in the end we became a super power. if it were not for the soviet union we would likely have gone back to farming. but the "military industrial complex" allowed us to become expand our industry as quickly as we did... the pains we are feeling now is just our economy slowing.

we've been running on full after burner ever since ww2. If you think about it, my grandpa rode a horse to school, his family had one car. when my dad was a kid... ONE GENERATION... him and his 4 siblings all had their own cars to drive to school. and when it came to me, I was driving a used MERCEDES!!!! thats called progress.

If you compare that progress to history you will see that its pretty accelerated. (pre-history to 1900 humanity rode horses....) I don't expect my kids to have flying cars, so that means our economy is distend to slow down.

maybe decreasing the size of government to match our current economy is not a bad idea?

If my kids are not going to be able to sell flying cars how are they going to pay for the ever expanding debt. maybe our spending should match our GDP? just an Idea!

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We're screwed:

See even our dvined leader, like the suds. I wonder how he'd stack up against our Emperor of the Beers, though.
Tom

clk man by a landslide.

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"The law, in its majestic equality, forbids the rich as well as the poor to sleep under bridges, to beg in the streets, and to steal bread."

Then you know little to nothing about today's world.
Start a small self education about "financial instruments" and try to tell everyone that "complexity" is not a issue.....