Quote: But when he plotted his results, he found that these diverse events fell into a regular pattern. It was as if the chaos of war seemed to comply with some hitherto unknown law of nature.

At first glance the pattern seems obvious. Richardson found that wars with low death tolls far outnumber high-fatality conflicts. But that obvious observation conceals a precise mathematical description: the link between the severity and frequency of conflicts follows a smooth curve, known as a power law. One consequence is that extreme events such as the world wars do not appear to be anomalies. They are simply what should be expected to occur occasionally, given the frequency with which conflicts take place.

The results have fascinated mathematicians and military strategists ever since. They have also been replicated many times. But they have not had much impact on the conduct of actual wars. As a result, there is a certain “so what” quality to Richardson’s results. It is one thing to show that a pattern exists, another to do something useful with it.

In a paper currently under review at Science, however, Neil Johnson of the University of Miami in Coral Gables, Florida, and his colleagues hint at what that something useful might be. Dr Johnson’s team is one of several groups who, in previous papers, have shown that Richardson’s power law also applies to attacks by terrorists and insurgents. They and others have broadened Richardson’s scope of inquiry to include the timing of attacks, as well as the severity. This prepared the ground for the new paper, which outlines a method for forecasting the evolution of conflicts.

Much more at: http://www.economist.com/node/18483411

I was hoping this would be about 800hp mustang dyno sheets

__________________
TC
Current stable:
- 2004 Mazda RALLYWANKEL
- 2007 Saturn sky redline
- 2004 Explorer...under surgery.

Past: 135i, GTI, 300E, 300SD, 300SD, Stealth

Best you read "How to lie with Statistics"

__________________
Grumpy Old Diesel Owners Club group

I no longer question authority, I annoy authority. More effect, less effort....

1967 230-6 auto parts car. rust bucket.
1980 300D now parts car 800k miles
1984 300D 500k miles
1987 250td 160k miles English import
2001 jeep turbo diesel 130k miles
1998 jeep tdi ~ followed me home. Needs a turbo.
1968 Ford F750 truck. 6-354 diesel conversion.
Other toys ~J.D.,Cat & GM ~ mainly earth moving

Quite a few folks have applied game theory to actual wars to study how the troops actually behave. I recently read about this in one of Richard Dawkins' books; basically, the WW1 trench soldures eventually figured out they were better off cooperating than fighting:

http://www.heretical.com/games/trenches.html

Who are you addressing? The Botnst?

__________________
You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows - Robert A. Zimmerman

In the future, we will develop what Isaac Asimov coined, "psychohistory", in which the mass will of people becomes predictable and thus, malleable to the people who have the tools and will to use them.

I think, a development of MacLuhan. Kurzweil has sort of played on this in current times as well

__________________
TC
Current stable:
- 2004 Mazda RALLYWANKEL
- 2007 Saturn sky redline
- 2004 Explorer...under surgery.

Past: 135i, GTI, 300E, 300SD, 300SD, Stealth

"Elections have consequences." -Barack Husein Obama

Is he related to our President? Such a similarity in names...

A name easily confused with other personages.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APx2YJ-_jos

70% of the time, it works every time!

I'm surprised that he didn't say Barack Hussein Kopechne...