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  #1  
Old 07-31-2011, 09:08 PM
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CAFE Players Settle On 54.5 MPG For 2025

July 28, 2011
By JOHN O'DELL
Edmunds AutoObserver


Quote:
In a deal that likely will become a major plank in President Obama's reelection platform, the White House reportedly has hammered out a deal with major automakers that will – at least for now – establish a 54.5 mile-per-gallon Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standard for passenger vehicles in 2025. That would be equal to an EPA "window sticker" fuel economy rating of about 40 mpg. A formal announcement is scheduled to be made by the President on Friday, but as of late Wednesday, according to one automaker involved in the talks, there had not yet been a final agreement presented for industry and government representatives to sign off on. Still, it is unlikely at this stage that the deal being widely discussed in Washington and Michigan won't happen.

What is known is that the agreement calls for a 5 percent annual increase in passenger car fuel efficiency from the 2017 through 2025 model year, which would result in a nearly 60 mpg CAFE standard for cars. Light trucks, including pickups and SUVs, will be treated differently, subject to a 3.5 percent fuel economy increase each year through 2021 and then a 5 percent hike in subsequent years. The lower standard for trucks pulls the overall fleetwide average down to 54.5 mpg in the 2025 model year. While automakers aren't talking for publication, several -- including BMW and Mercedes-Benz, reportedly are unhappy with the break given to the truck segment, which still makes up a large part of the domestic auto industry's portfolio. Toyota Motor corp., which initially had reservations about the deal and could have been a big stumbling block to Obama's hopes of quick industry agreement, reportedly has had its concerns addressed and now is ready to support it. Still unclear is whether the deal will permit automakers to classify crossovers -- SUV-styled vehicles built on automobile platforms rather than on truck chassis -- as trucks, thus reducing their fuel efficiency requirements.

Others, though, see the deal as probably the best they can get. After years of fighting just about every fuel efficiency and safety improvement plan regulators come up with, automakers are trying these days to appear more reasonable, especially as the domestic industry pretty much owes its continued existence to a government bailout. Telling taxpayers struggling with high fuel prices in a sagging economy that they won't make the effort to provide a big boost in fuel efficiency over the next 14 years isn't seen as a particularly bright move.

One industry source close to the negotiations told AutoObserver that the deal "provides regulatory certainty and a robust mid-term review process, [and] allows the industry to be forward thinking based on advanced technology." In a statement released late Wednesday, American Honda executive vice president John Mendel said his company "embraces this challenge, which will be good for our customers and for the environment, and we welcome the competition we will have with other automakers that will result from these new standards.".....
-continue to read more.- http://www.autoobserver.com/2011/07/cafe-players-settle-on-545-mpg-for-2025.html



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  #2  
Old 08-02-2011, 07:30 PM
Pooka
 
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Auto industry people I have spoken to say hitting this number will be easy since they expect to sell a lot of electric cars with what is known as MPGe of 120 MPGe in the near future.

If you are an auto maker with an electric program, like all of the ones that have signed on to this deal, you are on easy street. If you are not then you are at rather a disadvantage in meeting your CAFE numbers in 15 years.

The bottom line on this is that smaller cars and electric cars will become cheaper since auto companies will have to sell a lot of them and bigger cars will become more expensive in an effort to curb sales.

Trucks above 1/2 ton are supposed to be exempt. Expect a lot of 5/8 ton pick-ups to be offered for sale.
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  #3  
Old 08-02-2011, 07:57 PM
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It won't effect me any, I won't be driving a tin can any time soon.
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  #4  
Old 08-02-2011, 08:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pooka View Post
Auto industry people I have spoken to say hitting this number will be easy since they expect to sell a lot of electric cars with what is known as MPGe of 120 MPGe in the near future.

If you are an auto maker with an electric program, like all of the ones that have signed on to this deal, you are on easy street. If you are not then you are at rather a disadvantage in meeting your CAFE numbers in 15 years.

The bottom line on this is that smaller cars and electric cars will become cheaper since auto companies will have to sell a lot of them and bigger cars will become more expensive in an effort to curb sales.

Trucks above 1/2 ton are supposed to be exempt. Expect a lot of 5/8 ton pick-ups to be offered for sale.
From what I've heard, the complicated way in which the formula is calculated, it will take only a relative handful of electrics and/or hybrids to kick any of the OEM's CAFE numbers up to a high level.

And other than that, nothing will really change - in reality, just like they did over the past few decades with safety standards and emissions regulations, the OEM's that signed this deal have found a way to use CAFE standards to get the government to help tilt the playing field against their competition.

And Obama gets street cred with the enviros amongst his base - even though in essence it will accomplish relatively little.

2025? He could nigh well have accomplished this overnight - by directing the EPA to adjust our emissions regulations to be in line with Euro standards - where the OEM's already sell a plethora of vehicles that match or surpass hybrid levels for fuel mileage.

Another part of the reason the OEM's went along with this deal was to try and call a truce with CA and CARB - to not have to make a 45 state emissions model and a separate CARB-states emissions model of the same vehicle.
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  #5  
Old 08-02-2011, 09:59 PM
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The only thing that will change people's car/engine choice is the cost of fuel.
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  #6  
Old 08-02-2011, 10:18 PM
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Meh, I still want a fuel efficient car, maybe Bentley Arnage T?
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  #7  
Old 08-03-2011, 06:54 AM
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I have a feeling by 2025 things will have greatly changed anyways. Peak oil will occur at some point in the near future.
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  #8  
Old 08-03-2011, 11:39 AM
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Originally Posted by pawoSD View Post
I have a feeling by 2025 things will have greatly changed anyways. Peak oil will occur at some point in the near future.
First sentence I'm in complete agreement with.

As far as the second sentence - I've lost track of how many times we were already have supposed to hit peak oil production in the past 40 years. They'd have had better luck predicting next year's weather. I'd reference you back to your first sentence on this one.
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  #9  
Old 08-03-2011, 11:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Hatterasguy View Post
Meh, I still want a fuel efficient car, maybe Bentley Arnage T?
Keep your Silverado. It drives about the same, is a lot cheaper to own, and is really more useful.
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  #10  
Old 08-04-2011, 12:00 AM
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By 2025 the cost of EVs will be substantially less than any internal combustion motor at which point people won't care about the range. The real challenge will be generating the electricity. Its not impossible but it will take a big infrastructure investment.
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  #11  
Old 08-04-2011, 12:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt L View Post
It's not a problem if the car is smart enough to charge itself at night when there is a lot of excess capacity.
100,000,000 EVs charging every night in this country? No, we don't have the generating or transmission capacity for that. Not yet at least.
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  #12  
Old 08-04-2011, 08:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tjts1 View Post
100,000,000 EVs charging every night in this country? No, we don't have the generating or transmission capacity for that. Not yet at least.
and to ad to this just last night on the news they said the EPA wants to put new restrictions on coal fired power plants.the nebraska public power district said the new reg's would cost over a billion dollars a year.looks like the cost of electric "fuel" is goin up too!my question is.just how does say a prius operate while say in city mode with only the electric motor.does it somehow also charge the battery at the same time??
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  #13  
Old 08-04-2011, 09:19 AM
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Good. I hope the EPA shuts down the coal plants all together. I'm glad I don't live anywhere near one.
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  #14  
Old 08-04-2011, 10:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt L View Post
The car takes less power than your air conditioner. The air conditioner cycles off at night.
FAIL

Nissan Leaf charges at 3.3kw/h for 8 hours. Average room AC consumes 1kw/h, central home AC unit 2-5kw/h depending on the size of the house. Its interesting that every black out in the north east happened during a heat wave. I wonder why that is? I'm sure nobody will ever try to charge their EV and run the AC in the house at the same time... right?
http://www.absak.com/library/power-consumption-table
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  #15  
Old 08-04-2011, 01:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tjts1 View Post
Good. I hope the EPA shuts down the coal plants all together. I'm glad I don't live anywhere near one.
Fine. Enjoy your daily blackouts.
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Just say "NO" to Ethanol - Drive Diesel

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