Peak oil? How about peak phosporous? - PeachParts Mercedes-Benz Forum

cmac2012 · #1 04-13-2013, 03:55 AM

Are We Heading Toward Peak Fertilizer? | Mother Jones

Quote:

But phosphorus and potassium cannot be synthesized-they're found in significant amounts only in a few large deposits scattered across the planet, in the form, respectively, of phosphate rock and potash. After less than a century of industrial ag, we're starting to burn through them. In a column in the November 14 Nature, the legendary investor Jeremy Grantham lays out why that's a problem:

"These two elements cannot be made, cannot be substituted, are necessary to grow all life forms, and are mined and depleted. It's a scary set of statements. Former Soviet states and Canada have more than 70% of the potash. Morocco has 85% of all high-grade phosphates. It is the most important quasi-monopoly in economic history."

"What happens when these fertilizers run out is a question I can't get satisfactorily answered and, believe me, I have tried. There seems to be only one conclusion: their use must be drastically reduced in the next 20-40 years or we will begin to starve."

cmac2012 · #2 04-13-2013, 04:08 AM

Are We Heading Toward Peak Fertilizer? | Mother Jones

Quote:

But phosphorus and potassium cannot be synthesized-they're found in significant amounts only in a few large deposits scattered across the planet, in the form, respectively, of phosphate rock and potash. After less than a century of industrial ag, we're starting to burn through them. In a column in the November 14 Nature, the legendary investor Jeremy Grantham lays out why that's a problem:

"These two elements cannot be made, cannot be substituted, are necessary to grow all life forms, and are mined and depleted. It's a scary set of statements. Former Soviet states and Canada have more than 70% of the potash. Morocco has 85% of all high-grade phosphates. It is the most important quasi-monopoly in economic history."

"What happens when these fertilizers run out is a question I can't get satisfactorily answered and, believe me, I have tried. There seems to be only one conclusion: their use must be drastically reduced in the next 20-40 years or we will begin to starve."

spdrun · #3 04-13-2013, 08:02 AM

Gaia will shake off invasive species in the next 20-40 years

...

Air&Road · #4 04-13-2013, 08:25 AM

Thanks for posting this cmac. Something more valuable to the world than oil.

layback40 · #5 04-13-2013, 08:48 AM

No one bothered to mention that there are islands of phosphate rock in the pacific ~ Naru for one.
Potassium is present in most soils & in sea water.
I think "Mother Jones' maybe making mountains out of mole hills.

elchivito · #6 04-13-2013, 09:10 AM

Wait, you mean giant single crop industrial farming isn't sustainable?

MTI · #7 04-13-2013, 09:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by layback40

No one bothered to mention that there are islands of phosphate rock in the pacific ~ Naru for one.
Potassium is present in most soils & in sea water.
I think "Mother Jones' maybe making mountains out of mole hills.

Check your sources on Naru, they mined most of it away in just a few decades and then squandered the monies. I have a friend that used to manage some of the trust properties in Hawaii and it was amazing how they managed to lose so much money. The government literally went broke.

cmac2012 · #8 04-13-2013, 03:02 PM

^ ^ Beat me to it. Nauru is a sad case. Interesting to look at on Google Earth. There are other opinions. This article claims there's a 300 year supply - a fertilizer manfr. put it out so there is some potential for bias there:

Peak Phosphorus

Here's a trivia bit I found about Nauru, not sure if it's true:

Quote:

There is some material about Nauru in another forum, which I will import in due course. Before I forget, though, tonight I met a man who was brought up there (his father was an Australian who was Chief of Police). He said that one of the side-effects of quarrying out the middle of the island was to create a micro-climate, a column of hot air rising from the denuded central area. This column of rising air is the reason why it never rains in Nauru, which is why they have to import their drinking water in ships.

http://old.qi.com/talk/viewtopic.php?start=0&t=4474

NPR aired an This American Life episode about Nauru a few years back. At one point when the money was flowing, someone in charge had the bright idea to invest in a London musical that became one of the biggest bombs ever:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leonardo_the_Musical:_A_Portrait_of_Love

Chris Bell · #9 04-13-2013, 06:55 PM

The sky is falling...the sky is falling AAAAHHHHHHH

Volker · #10 04-13-2013, 06:58 PM

It is kind of irrelevant

there were many sources of this that became dead after discovery of large reserves underground. Of which there are a hell of a lot. Sure a lot is in Canada, but Canada is happy to sell them to everyone

Ultimately wastewater treatment plants could recover phosphorous as well, no big deal...

But no always we get into some Malthusian BS about the sky falling. How many cavemen were worried of "peak flint" or "peak wooly mammoth" ?

Botnst · #11 04-14-2013, 08:49 AM

Peak Helium!

cmac2012 · #12 04-14-2013, 02:47 PM

Yes, I gather that helium is also harder and harder to come by. I think I'd miss phosphate more.

This may not be a trivial issue. The hunt for phosphate has a long history. Their was a time when boatloads of bat$hit were the next big thing.

We sort of take it for granted that we can re-introduce sufficient nutrients to the soil to continue our wholesale manipulation of plant life on earth. Might be some obstacles on that course. Hunter gatherers were stronger for a reason. Their soil base was healthier, more robust.

Surely you can do better, plant life is your field, no?

Volker · #13 04-14-2013, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmac2012

\

We sort of take it for granted that we can re-introduce sufficient nutrients to the soil to continue our wholesale manipulation of plant life on earth. Might be some obstacles on that course. Hunter gatherers were stronger for a reason. Their soil base was healthier, more robust.

They also had an average life expectancy of 20 years.

FYVMMF · #14 04-14-2013, 04:26 PM

Peak phosporous? How serious should you be taken when in your thread title the word "Phosphorous" isn't even spelled correctly?

But in all seriousness, I honestly think this most recent Chicken Little- hippie hand wringing-doomsday-Armageddon-Tourettes spasm must be taken at least as seriously as your earlier clucking to arms about the "Glaciers, water towers for billions, disappearing"

http://www.peachparts.com/shopforum/open-discussion/250620-glaciers-water-towers-billions-disappearing.html

You know, where from the PBS alarmist propaganda operation link you provided "scientists predict climate change will cause some of the world's largest glaciers to completely melt by 2030." That claim based on the 2007 IPCC "report" aka "once referred to as MMGW, propaganda" that as been debunked, discredited, and disavowed to such a degree that the reports' authors have been forced to admit the claim was nothing more than media contrived conjecture that any legitimate and honest peer review should have and would have rejected its inclusion out of hand.
Probably do well to reduce the reading of so much “spent hippie eye view of the end of the world stuff”, it's liable to frighten to the point of soiling yourself and that will only end up using even more of that precious water and phosphorous to clean your drawers!

This phosphorous thing was so scary and it appears to have shaken you so bad, it caused you to post two identical threads on it!

http://www.peachparts.com/shopforum/open-discussion/337459-peak-oil-how-about-peak-phosporous.html

http://www.peachparts.com/shopforum/open-discussion/337460-peak-oil-how-about-peak-phosporous.html

Loss of bowel control can't be far off! Better start shopping for those all natural, 100% organic, sustainably manufactured grampers down at the commune co-op before you read the next “WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE” report.

FYVMMF · #15 04-14-2013, 04:27 PM

Peak phosporous? How serious should you be taken when in your thread title the word "Phosphorous" isn't even spelled correctly?

But in all seriousness, I honestly think this most recent Chicken Little- hippie hand wringing-doomsday-Armageddon-Tourettes spasm must be taken at least as seriously as your earlier clucking to arms about the "Glaciers, water towers for billions, disappearing"

http://www.peachparts.com/shopforum/open-discussion/250620-glaciers-water-towers-billions-disappearing.html

You know, where from the PBS alarmist propaganda operation link you provided "scientists predict climate change will cause some of the world's largest glaciers to completely melt by 2030." That claim based on the 2007 IPCC "report" aka "once referred to as MMGW, propaganda" that as been debunked, discredited, and disavowed to such a degree that the reports' authors have been forced to admit the claim was nothing more than media contrived conjecture that any legitimate and honest peer review should have and would have rejected its inclusion out of hand.
Probably do well to reduce the reading of so much “spent hippie eye view of the end of the world stuff”, it's liable to frighten to the point of soiling yourself and that will only end up using even more of that precious water and phosphorous to clean your drawers!

This phosphorous thing was so scary and it appears to have shaken you so bad, it caused you to post two identical threads on it!

http://www.peachparts.com/shopforum/open-discussion/337459-peak-oil-how-about-peak-phosporous.html

http://www.peachparts.com/shopforum/open-discussion/337460-peak-oil-how-about-peak-phosporous.html

Loss of bowel control can't be far off! Better start shopping for those all natural, 100% organic, sustainably manufactured grampers down at the commune co-op before you read the next “WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE” report.