Civil Disobedience. Ukrainian Style

[dynalow]

Wow! Just Wow!

People getting shot by snipers in Kiev +18 - YouTube

What do suppose Putin has up his sleeve, once everyone leaves Sochi?
He's not likely to sit back and wave goodbye to the Ukraine.

[engatwork]

Nothing like live war shots on youtube to see what it's like.

Too bad they don't all have guns but it does provide a good example of how steel plate works out for protection against bullets.

[spdrun]

Originally Posted by dynalow

Wow! Just Wow!

People getting shot by snipers in Kiev +18 - YouTube

What do suppose Putin has up his sleeve, once everyone leaves Sochi?
He's not likely to sit back and wave goodbye to the Ukraine.

Ukraine hasn't been a part of Russia for the last 22 years. This is unlikely to change now -- if Putin invades, who says that the Ukrainians don't have an ex-Soviet nuke or five ready? Nah, Putin isn't that crazy.

[t walgamuth]

Originally Posted by engatwork

Nothing like live war shots on youtube to see what it's like.

Too bad they don't all have guns but it does provide a good example of how steel plate works out for protection against bullets.

A lot of the shields looked like plywood or very light metal. A quarter inch of steel probably would be effective against the typical high velocity 22ish caliber now common. The sounds of the guns suggested a fairly small caliber rifle, perhaps even a 22.

Although some of the wounded looked doomed others seemed to take shots in the leg and not be completely ripped apart as would be expected from a more powerful gun.

[dynalow]

Originally Posted by spdrun

Ukraine hasn't been a part of Russia for the last 22 years. This is unlikely to change now -- if Putin invades, who says that the Ukrainians don't have an ex-Soviet nuke or five ready? Nah, Putin isn't that crazy.

Yeah...Crazy like a fox. He's on a roll. Perhaps another Georgia-style intervention? If so, to what degree? Stay out of the picture? Nah. I don't see it.

Ukraine

"Where east meets west

Mr Putin has never come to terms with Ukraine’s sovereignty, seeing the country as a non-state which ultimately belongs to Russia. He saw the EU’s attempt to sign a deal with Ukraine as little more palatable than NATO’s attempt to draw in Georgia in 2008. That resulted in a five-day war between Russia and Georgia, leaving separatist parts of Georgia occupied by Russian forces and off-limits for NATO. Experiences gathered then may have come in handy in Ukraine. Vladislav Surkov, a Kremlin adviser who is formally in charge of dealing with the Georgian breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, has been handling the Ukraine crisis for Mr Putin, and has been spotted in Kiev and Crimea.

Mr Yanukovych believed that he was trading his refusal to sign an agreement with the EU for Russia’s financial backing. But Mr Putin, who places little trust in Mr Yanukovych, needed firmer guarantees of Ukraine’s dependence on Russia. A civil conflict, blamed on the radicals, not only deters the EU and the West from meddling, but could also give Russia dominance over parts of Ukraine, including Crimea, which it has long coveted.

What next?...................."

[kerry]

I know virtually nothing about the Ukraine so I am at a loss as to how to interpret the conflict. The Russian interests seem obvious to me. The internal opposition is a mystery. There was a piece in the NYT a few days ago describing how much of the resistance was coming from extreme right wing nationalists, ideologically fascist. Can anyone give a rundown on internal Ukrainian politics/society?

[Since66]

"Old" Russia + different shade of lipstick + nice dress = "New" Russia.

[Hatterasguy]

Wait governments are to help the people, they don't need to own guns!

If that happened in the US we would be able to shoot back.

Judging by how they move those shields they are to light to stop a 7.62 caliber round. Shooting sounds like its semi auto, maybe something like an HK91ish.

[Hatterasguy]

Video of Ukraine Soldiers Shooting AK-47, Sniper Rifle at People as Truce Fails, 25 More Die - YouTube

Police seemed to be armed with typical AK74's and what seems to be some kind of bolt action rifle. Looks almost Sig like but its hard to tell, doesn't really matter. Bolt action, glass on top, probably chambered for some sort of .30 cal round, might even be 7.62x54R.

[Jim B.]

Originally Posted by kerry

I know virtually nothing about the Ukraine so I am at a loss as to how to interpret the conflict. The Russian interests seem obvious to me. The internal opposition is a mystery. There was a piece in the NYT a few days ago describing how much of the resistance was coming from extreme right wing nationalists, ideologically fascist. Can anyone give a rundown on internal Ukrainian politics/society?

I have a very good friend from Russia (how a US citizen who lives in my town and regularly visits family each year, and last week arrived in Moscow then on to her home town in Siberia.)

Dated February 19th - she wrote, from Russia:


It is heartbreaking to watch the news about what has been happening in Ukraine. The truth is that this kind of human crisis has been happening all over the world but the difference is that this time it touched us very closely. It is more disturbing than what we have seen about other countries because now it is happening in our county where we were born, where we grew up, where we had our childhood and teenage years, where we have our close ones, our families and friends, where all our sweet memories from, where we've eaten the best food. We walked, had fun, laughed to death and ate the best ice cream on those streets where people kill each other now, where people rise against each other now. Sounds like the end time, doesn't it?

[Jim B.]

Originally Posted by Hatterasguy

Video of Ukraine Soldiers Shooting AK-47, Sniper Rifle at People as Truce Fails, 25 More Die - YouTube

Police seemed to be armed with typical AK74's and what seems to be some kind of bolt action rifle. Looks almost Sig like but its hard to tell, doesn't really matter. Bolt action, glass on top, probably chambered for some sort of .30 cal round, might even be 7.62x54R.

Originally Posted by t walgamuth

A lot of the shields looked like plywood or very light metal. A quarter inch of steel probably would be effective against the typical high velocity 22ish caliber now common. The sounds of the guns suggested a fairly small caliber rifle, perhaps even a 22.

Although some of the wounded looked doomed others seemed to take shots in the leg and not be completely ripped apart as would be expected from a more powerful gun.

People are drowning here, and you're describing the water!

[pj67coll]

Coupld of colleagues of my wifes work in Kiev. They were teachers here when the economy went down the toilet and they took jobs with an outfit that teaches US kids in foreign contries where there is a large US presence. My wife keeps in pretty close contact with them via facebook and the stuff they have been witnessing is pretty terrible for them.

Of course you have to remember these are Americans for whom the reality of life in other countries was something you only occasinonally noticed on TV if you happend to catch the news, so finding themselves in the middle of it is pretty shocking. Last week they said they have no immediate plans to leave but were essentially "monitoring the situation daily".

As for internal Ukrainian politics. I know practically nothing about it as well. But I do know that the Ukranians have no particular love for the Russians. Many of them welcomed the Germans when they invaded in 1941 and they continued a guerilla campaign against the Soviets after the war into the 1950's.

Interestingly I have Four Mauser K98's. These were imported into the US a decade ago from the Ukraine. They are referred to as "Russian Capture" but as the US is apparently not allowed to import military arms from Russia I have heard that these actually came from the Ukraine.

The relevance of this is that most of thse rifles that were re-arsenald by the Soviets had the Swastikas peened out not surprisingly. Not the ones from the Ukraine though. They left them intact as on the examples I have.

During the Soviet occupation there was a large Russian influx to the country and these folks seem to have a nostalgic desire for a continuing link to Russia while Putin tries to re-establish the old Soviet Unions former hegemony.

The native Ukranians want nothing to do with it and look to the West for their future. Within that native Ukranian host there seems to be a gamut of political opinion across all areas of the socio political spectrum.

It all depends on what Putin will do. He cannot afford to allow the Ukraine to chart its own course or his dream of a resurgent Russia is dead in the water.

My prediction is it will devolve into war.

- Peter.

[rs899]

Here is a pretty good rundown of the players:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26312733


My wife is from Odessa, so I have been following recent events closely, including witnessing the vote in the Rada to impeach Yanukovich and free Tymoshenko.

I think they may have a shot at democracy 2.0. If this can be believed, Odessa and some of the other Russian-speaking areas seem to be going along with the "radicals"...

Odesa Deputies Call to Preserve Country

I hope that enough Ukrainians have had enough of the corruption that permeates all levels of society , and will want to join Europe. They seem to be trying.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26317912


It was a pretty shocking week. We stayed in one of hotels on the Maidan (the Kozatsky) a few years ago that was turned into a morgue.


If I were Putin, I would be worrying about dissent in my own country. It's almost Spring now, good weather for mayhem.

[Hatterasguy]

Originally Posted by Jim B.

People are drowning here, and you're describing the water!

Wars happen all the time, analyzing them is nothing new either.

[Hatterasguy]

Originally Posted by pj67coll

Coupld of colleagues of my wifes work in Kiev. They were teachers here when the economy went down the toilet and they took jobs with an outfit that teaches US kids in foreign contries where there is a large US presence. My wife keeps in pretty close contact with them via facebook and the stuff they have been witnessing is pretty terrible for them.

Of course you have to remember these are Americans for whom the reality of life in other countries was something you only occasinonally noticed on TV if you happend to catch the news, so finding themselves in the middle of it is pretty shocking. Last week they said they have no immediate plans to leave but were essentially "monitoring the situation daily".

As for internal Ukrainian politics. I know practically nothing about it as well. But I do know that the Ukranians have no particular love for the Russians. Many of them welcomed the Germans when they invaded in 1941 and they continued a guerilla campaign against the Soviets after the war into the 1950's.

Interestingly I have Four Mauser K98's. These were imported into the US a decade ago from the Ukraine. They are referred to as "Russian Capture" but as the US is apparently not allowed to import military arms from Russia I have heard that these actually came from the Ukraine.

The relevance of this is that most of thse rifles that were re-arsenald by the Soviets had the Swastikas peened out not surprisingly. Not the ones from the Ukraine though. They left them intact as on the examples I have.

During the Soviet occupation there was a large Russian influx to the country and these folks seem to have a nostalgic desire for a continuing link to Russia while Putin tries to re-establish the old Soviet Unions former hegemony.

The native Ukranians want nothing to do with it and look to the West for their future. Within that native Ukranian host there seems to be a gamut of political opinion across all areas of the socio political spectrum.

It all depends on what Putin will do. He cannot afford to allow the Ukraine to chart its own course or his dream of a resurgent Russia is dead in the water.

My prediction is it will devolve into war.

- Peter.

I suspect there President who is hiding out somewhere near the Russian boarder might invite the Russian army in or something along those lines.