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  #1  
Old 09-09-2014, 12:11 PM
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Ebola virus mutates at some point?

I have never read if this is a possibility with ebola. At the same time since the first outbreaks years ago I have always expected it probably would flare up again..

Viruses can mutate and the more they are active in more and more larger numbers of individual animals. The animals being humans in this case I suspect the possibility increases. So in general unless a 100 percent treatment or 100 percent preventative measure comes along?

The bottom line is I wonder if the world is really taking this current disease seriously enough? For example if It where to mutate into a form of air born virus just as severe. What measures would be taken? Plus would they be enacted quick enough.

I have had this nagging suspicion they are already monitoring for any change in the virus. If it is suspected to occur or even possible more aggressive measures should already have been gotten underway by now.

Air travel with isolation delays for the whole planeload for the typical incubation period of ebola would be a start.

It is too late if an individual gets some form of easily transmitted virus mutation of ebola and gets on a plane and gets off at their destination. Even just one such person could be enough.

This is the type of thing that can turn economies upside down easily. Some form of worldwide pandemic is still not totally impossible if the virus mutates.

We had a suspect case using a hotel 140 miles away the other day. There is no concern though as it is only still transmitted by body fluids. It did not turn out to be positive anyways.

Do not get me wrong I would not like to see any epidemic of that type occuring. At the same time can we trust that total isolation of areas of the world would occur fast enough if the virus mutates?

I guess why I am posting this is over time my hunches although not always right have been right an abnormal amount of times. I am not smart at the same time.

I had thought that probably ebola would reoccur when it was wiped out before bigger than ever. Unfortunatly this has occurred.

To further simplify this post there is no reason for concern yet. There is in my opinion at the same time. Not unreasonable grounds to keep an eye on this disease and watch for any signs that it has mutated occurring. Initially the period between mutation of the virus and the point that it is established that it has occurred may be some time.

They are currently increasing the facilities in the effected areas to deal with what is now. The money being spent is pathetically little in comparison to the costs that may errupt.

I also in no way am paranoid about this other than the discussions and thoughts by the powers that be. They do not seem to be releasing any information about the virus mutation possibility or probabilities. I personally feel that no organization wants to go on record on the possibility at the public consumption level.

It is totally amazing how the state of the worlds economy has evolved with no apparent room to allow for unusual serious events. Although from a historical perspective they are with us from time to time is a given.

I of course also hope this never occurs. That is a far cry from what could occur even if fairly remote at this time.

What a topic .My intent is not to create fear. Simply the awareness for anyone that has not considered this remote possibility. .

The stimulus to post now is the investigation of exacly how a doctor in theory fully protected while working has acquired the disease is now underway. Certainly he probably just slipped up in someway but it is not certain how yet. At least from this it appears they are also watching carefully for any changes in the virus if only a side issue.
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Old 09-09-2014, 12:31 PM
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For a bit of fiction of the subject, have you ever read Tom Clancy's Executive Orders and the next book, Rainbow Six? Both deal with terrorist plots using the Ebola virus. One takes it a step further and introduces genetic manipulation. Obviously, the books are works of fiction, but the reading about how viral spreads can work, can be manipulated, the public's reactions, and steps that can be used to combat it all are interesting.

MV
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Old 09-09-2014, 08:37 PM
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Ebola, Lassa, Marburg etc. None of them are stamped out and probably never can be. I think we should be a lot more concerned than we are because the world is indeed not equipped to handle the type of pandemic that would arise if it became airborne. Rather like the black death but worse.

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  #4  
Old 09-09-2014, 08:45 PM
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There's not proof that any of these doctors being air-ambulanced back to the States even had this ebola. I think it's some sort of fatigue they're suffering from, and with fluids and rest they get better - what a surprise? The political hysteria is cultivated/manufactured - just another diversion to garner $ aid, or take folks' minds away from the real problems with Islam and the floundering U.S. Economy. A contrived Government inter-agency conspiracy? That's the odds on favorite. Alex Jones knows.
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  #5  
Old 09-10-2014, 12:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Skid Row Joe View Post
There's not proof that any of these doctors being air-ambulanced back to the States even had this ebola. I think it's some sort of fatigue they're suffering from, and with fluids and rest they get better - what a surprise? The political hysteria is cultivated/manufactured - just another diversion to garner $ aid, or take folks' minds away from the real problems with Islam and the floundering U.S. Economy. A contrived Government inter-agency conspiracy? That's the odds on favorite. Alex Jones knows.
There is no hysteria that I am aware of. The medical reports of medical personal testing positive are very recient. According to the existing safety protacals there it should not have happened.

This actually is the thrust of my thoughts. If say their acquiring it was as a result of a viral mutation. There already may be somebody else that has the mutation on their way home while they are investigating this. That person could be amoungst the general population before an investigation caught the change of status of a virus. Plus so was the whole planeload. The recirculating air supply in those planes is signifigant.

Even one such individual in a highly contagious state but not really sick yet could be a disaster. With a mutation the incubation period could radically change in humans.

I guess my point is it easier and much cheaper to have a quarantine period for people exiting the prevelant areas. Then to perhaps take chances. Even if the risk of mutation occuring where only one percent? The only way it is safe now if the people that deal with virusus can verify that there is absolutely no chances of mutation to a far more contagious form. Again maybe this is reality but if so why are we not hearing of it. The reaction of the local powers that be when the suspected case turned up fairly close to us was interesting. Just overkill probably.

People should be willing to do this isolation period if they must go into and out of the areas that are impacted. I really think disease control people should exercise choices based on their experiences with viruses. Maybe this is occurring and maybe their political bosses are calling the shots instead.

Can we not have a situation between no signifigant issues and panic? Playing it safe and very conservative for example just in case does not seem to be one.

There already is an issue without mutation. Any eruption that reoccurred was by expectations announced to be only very small. It was more or less indicated with their past experience the break out would be smaller and more contained than previously.. This projection has not quite proven accurate to me at least.

Last edited by barry12345; 09-10-2014 at 12:28 PM.
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  #6  
Old 09-10-2014, 01:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Skid Row Joe View Post
There's not proof that any of these doctors being air-ambulanced back to the States even had this ebola. I think it's some sort of fatigue they're suffering from, and with fluids and rest they get better - what a surprise? The political hysteria is cultivated/manufactured - just another diversion to garner $ aid, or take folks' minds away from the real problems with Islam and the floundering U.S. Economy. A contrived Government inter-agency conspiracy? That's the odds on favorite. Alex Jones knows.
With diagnostic abilities like that, you should be able to make a fortune in internet medicine.
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  #7  
Old 09-10-2014, 01:58 PM
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I think the question of how the US medical personnel contracted the disease is an important one. The disease has a pretty short incubation period if memory serves me correctly, so it seems unlikely they were exposed to it prior to being aware the disease was present. I haven't read any speculation about this. Liberia is a very screwed up society nowadays. I learned that when I spurred to search out General Butt Naked a couple of years ago.
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  #8  
Old 09-10-2014, 02:01 PM
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Latest US doc to get Ebola skipped protective gear in 100-degree heat, says colleague | Fox News
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  #9  
Old 09-11-2014, 08:54 PM
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Ebola is not really a good candidate for a plague in a developed country.

First its hard to transmit, it has a short incubation period and an even shorter infection period, and it tends to kill most of its hosts quickly.

A good plague candidate is easy to transmit, has a long incubation period where the host can still move around spreading it, than it kills the host.
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Old 09-11-2014, 09:11 PM
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If it where to mutate as a virus to a far more virulent and contagious form it could be pretty bad. If not I agree it should always remain controllable.

My original speculation and it was only that. What are any chances from a scientific perspective could the virus mutate over time. No chance at all, some chance?
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Old 09-11-2014, 10:06 PM
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Ebola is mutating with every new victim; constantly learning how to do it's job better. That's what it's programmed to do. It's already transmitted by close sneezes and coughs like the 'flu' and it won't be long before it can survive airborne.

Using tracer viruses, researchers found that contamination of just a single doorknob or table top results in the spread of viruses throughout office buildings, hotels, and health care facilities. Within 2 to 4 hours, the virus could be detected on 40 to 60 percent of workers and visitors in the facilities and commonly touched objects. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/09/140908093640.htm

The toilets are clean, but the handrails, doorknobs and light switches never get cleaned. Staff wear latex gloves to spread the contamination from one surface to another, just like in the food service industry. North America isn't prepared for a serious pandemic, when norovirus, 'staph' and c. deficile are already at epidemic levels in some facilities.

Ebola 'devouring everything in its path'. ...deaths in West Africa outbreak near 2,300 and reported cases surge. It's finally getting up to speed, but still a long way to go to equal malaria when up to 100,000 can die from malaria in the region in an average year.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/ebola-outbreak-deaths-from-malaria-and-other-diseases-could-soar-while-africas-overstretched-healthcare-systems-fight-the-virus-expert-warns-9667362.html
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  #12  
Old 09-12-2014, 11:00 AM
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Originally Posted by barry12345 View Post
My original speculation and it was only that. What are any chances from a scientific perspective could the virus mutate over time. No chance at all, some chance?
Viruses mutate all the time. It's called evolution. There is thus always the possibility that this may well become a much bigger problem than at present.

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  #13  
Old 09-12-2014, 11:35 AM
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Never expected it to move this fast. Apparently as of today there is a report being circulated in some forms of the media..
Actually the report or papers originator is an American specialist it seems.

Basically indicating mutation of ebola to a far more easily form of transmission is a distinct possibility already examined. It tends to indicate or hint it is even suspected to occur. When it does is the unknown.

I guess a better description is they are watching for the expected evolution of the virus. Since the powers that be where already obviously aware of this.

Quarantine of air travelers should have been implemented. In our case between Africa and the north American continent. It would or should include Mexico and south America as well.

One problem admitted that causes inaction is no party worldwide is in overall charge at this time. Some suggestions it should be the united nations in overall control was mentioned.

If an individual wants to fly from north Africa to north America. I have no issue with that as long as they are held as a group in total isolation including the pilots.For whatever sensible period required. Prefferably before loading the plane.

There may be a blood test to show if certain indications of the body starting to fight a virus that could be administered to intelligently shorten the isolation period.

If it where to become air born pilots would probably refuse to service areas with the problem anyways. Well perhaps and hopefully an effective vaccine will emerge to reduce all possibilities anyways.

Akim more or less on variouis posts states he has little trust in people. I have a certain amount of trust. At the same time someone afflicted may try to get home before dying unfortunately. The planes effective recirculation system may also mean that far more infected individuals deplane than where loaded.

To totally trust people to sacrifice themselves for the public good is taking trust too far. Self interest for some is just too strong. They just would not care.

Again all it takes is one person in a newly contagious form landing in north America. Even with medical personal brought back for treatment. They should be totally isolated rather than treating medical personal here just taking measures against body fluid contamination.

Safer than sorry can be overdone of course. If it ever got loose on this side of the ocean in a very easily transmissionable form. The after thought that we should have taken more precautions earlier is then too late.

After thinking about the political ramifications. There may be none. Too much media attention would be allotted to attempts trying to get it under control. Plus the economic ramifications and body count etc.. Instead of blame being attached to parties that allowed this to happen. Perhaps a sacrificial lamb in disease control is acceptable at worse.

Last edited by barry12345; 09-12-2014 at 11:52 AM.
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  #14  
Old 09-12-2014, 12:48 PM
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I think this tread is silly.

I was talking to a Conservative the other day that told me there was no such thing as evolution.

With this being the case how can the virus evolve?

And this is not just me talking. This is accepted fact, or at least it is the fact that some chose to accept.
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Old 09-12-2014, 01:35 PM
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Barry, you really ought to read the books I suggested earlier. I think Executive Orders would really interest you. It deals with much of what you're saying now, including the political aspects of dealing with a pandemic in the USA.

Of course, the beginning of the book will be a bit confusing, since it is a direct sequel to its predecessor, Debt of Honor, which ends with someone using an airliner as a weapon...

MV
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