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  #1  
Old 05-09-2018, 10:33 PM
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Car buyers going electric

I didn't think we'd get to this point, not in my lifetime. If half of the tire kickers actually buy, that's a sustainable market:

One in five Americans likely to buy EV, according to AAA study - NY Daily News

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  #2  
Old 05-09-2018, 11:03 PM
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A lot of people care about the environment, and will put their money where their mouths are.
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  #3  
Old 05-10-2018, 12:09 AM
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Demand of 3.5 million cars means that Tesla would have a thirty year backlog. And that's assuming they hit their production target this quarter. Every manufacturer will want a piece of that action.
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  #4  
Old 05-10-2018, 02:31 AM
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Just wait until the next oil spike.
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  #5  
Old 05-10-2018, 09:26 AM
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How environmentally friendly are electric cars? - BBC News
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Originally Posted by t walgamuth View Post
A lot of people care about the environment, and will put their money where their mouths are.
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  #6  
Old 05-10-2018, 11:11 AM
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If I were to have a need for a car or wanted to buy a new car it would probably be a model S, if I could live with the interior.

But (also in light of the article above), there are so many decent used cars that are better off staying on the road. Better to get the most use out of existing materials than to consume new (or newly recyled) material for the sake of newness.

I think it's great that battery and electric tech have caught up enough to be reasonably competitive. I don't think it's a full replacement, but more options means better fits for wider variety of use cases.
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  #7  
Old 05-10-2018, 11:18 AM
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Tesla, as we know it today, won't be around for much longer.

Their burn rate is too high and they're running out of money.

Unless an angel investor throws money at them or they get shareholders to agree to another round of equity financing (good luck) it'll be game over.

The brand may live in, but the underwhelming tech won't. Doubly so, rechargeable batteries are a dead end technology.

We'll also never see oil jump above $100 a barrel again either until the slow rate of inflation takes it there and then by then, a $100 will be the new $1.

Last edited by okyoureabeast; 05-10-2018 at 11:57 AM.
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  #8  
Old 05-10-2018, 12:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by okyoureabeast View Post
Tesla, as we know it today, won't be around for much longer.

Their burn rate is too high and they're running out of money.

Unless an angel investor throws money at them or they get shareholders to agree to another round of equity financing (good luck) it'll be game over.

The brand may live in, but the underwhelming tech won't. Doubly so, rechargeable batteries are a dead end technology.

We'll also never see oil jump above $100 a barrel again either until the slow rate of inflation takes it there and then by then, a $100 will be the new $1.
Except for the fact that Tesla is considered a technology company and not a "car company". Similar to Amazon, burned money for years, and never a problem raising cash. Don't know if I have enough time to see a return of any investment in my life time though.
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  #9  
Old 05-10-2018, 12:49 PM
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Originally Posted by sloride View Post
Except for the fact that Tesla is considered a technology company and not a "car company". Similar to Amazon, burned money for years, and never a problem raising cash. Don't know if I have enough time to see a return of any investment in my life time though.
Except Amazon is an actual tech company...they virtually pioneered marketplaces and web services. Something like 97% of their profits are from Amazon web services (can't remember the exact figures). I use them myself for a huge number of things, as do my clients.

Tesla is pioneering some battery tech and pushing a dealerless sale model, but their cars are far from revolutionary. I agree that they will not be around for too long in the status quo, but suspect they will shift a bit of course. They really just seem to need some better management around the 3 production (i.e. better employee treatment and that sort of thing) and they'll be alright.
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  #10  
Old 05-10-2018, 02:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sloride View Post
Except for the fact that Tesla is considered a technology company and not a "car company". Similar to Amazon, burned money for years, and never a problem raising cash. Don't know if I have enough time to see a return of any investment in my life time though.
Both companies are so widely different and the market conditions even more so that trying to compare them is the epitome of apples to oranges.

And while yes, Amazon did have a massive burn rate in the 90s, it was nowhere near Tesla's billion-dollar quarterly burn rate even after adjusting for inflation. Once 2001 hit the free money party was over and forced Bezo's team to cut back on silly things to get serious. They were profitable by 2003.

Asking the same question of Telsa: if the free money party from investors and government carbon credits were to stop, can Tesla become profitable manage to become profitable in two years time?

In reality, I think Musk will probably take Tesla private while he sorts out his mess.
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  #11  
Old 05-15-2018, 09:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tbomachines View Post
If I were to have a need for a car or wanted to buy a new car it would probably be a model S, if I could live with the interior.

But (also in light of the article above), there are so many decent used cars that are better off staying on the road. Better to get the most use out of existing materials than to consume new (or newly recyled) material for the sake of newness.

I think it's great that battery and electric tech have caught up enough to be reasonably competitive. I don't think it's a full replacement, but more options means better fits for wider variety of use cases.
Would love to drive an S. But I did sit in one. I liked the cabin from the driver's seat. I just couldn't afford it.

When somebody comes out with an F-250 class electric with a 200 mile radius in the $50K range I'll buy one. I need something with the power and range to pull a tractor safely about 100 miles round-trip.

The house we are building is all-electric with solar & battery back-up for 18 hrs. I envision charging my electric F-250 off the house power. Hope I live to see the day.
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  #12  
Old 05-15-2018, 09:07 AM
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won't work for folks in the country like me,electric bill already a curse each month.
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  #13  
Old 05-15-2018, 09:10 AM
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I'm so far in the country we pay a fee to pipe in sunshine.

They key is to go off-grid. It's really expensive. But you get independence.
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  #14  
Old 05-15-2018, 09:53 AM
The Safety Geek
 
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I own a 2014 Smart electric. It had 9,000 miles when I bought it, and it cost $5,500.00 - I commute in it about 90% of the time. It goes about 65 miles on a charge, which is fine for me, but would be a deal-breaker if you have a long commute. It's a pretty rough ride, and the exterior body panels seem really flimsy - but it is serving me well. A lot of window & seats are comfortable.
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  #15  
Old 05-15-2018, 11:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by okyoureabeast View Post
Both companies are so widely different and the market conditions even more so that trying to compare them is the epitome of apples to oranges.

And while yes, Amazon did have a massive burn rate in the 90s, it was nowhere near Tesla's billion-dollar quarterly burn rate even after adjusting for inflation. Once 2001 hit the free money party was over and forced Bezo's team to cut back on silly things to get serious. They were profitable by 2003.

Asking the same question of Telsa: if the free money party from investors and government carbon credits were to stop, can Tesla become profitable manage to become profitable in two years time?

In reality, I think Musk will probably take Tesla private while he sorts out his mess.
Agree Amazon and Tesla are very different, but still able to sell stock to raise money. Musk does not have 49 billion to take it private. He could take Ford Motors private for far less.

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