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  #1  
Old 05-13-2019, 01:30 PM
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Tariffs?

Tariffs are intended to protect domestic market production from unfair competition. North America no longer manufactures the vast bulk of what we import from China. I saw a double whammy where the tariff will flow to the federal treasury.

Plus the cost to importers will rise. This part would not normally be a major issue. Other than if you examine what retailers are taking as a markup it becomes very concerning.

For example I priced a simple syphon pump yesterday at Walmart's on line shopping. It was 25.00 and really not worth it for a simple manual pump and hose. It is 1.69 including delivery from China to me in single quantities. So Walmart probably pays about .60 cents in quantities.

We rightfully complain about the poor quality of Chinese made aftermarket parts. The manufacturers are getting almost nothing there for producing them. If the north American suppliers where not so greedy with markups they could buy much better products to resell.

As another example . A knock sensor was close to 200.00 at the auto chain stores. That I believe are buying each other up now but leaving the chain names unchanged. Why not when I pay 12.00 for the same sensor delivered from China. Where they have to be paying less than half. I think we will see a real 25 percent retail north American cost increase on those parts. The almost 200.00 sensor will become almost 250.00.

The last example is I am buying 5 digital multimeters from China right now for about the equivelant of 5.00 American each delivered. The Chinese retailer is still making some margin. A substantial increase in quality by a Chinese firm that has been in the business a long time with only a nominal price increase if any. Reviews on it where remarkably good for the price. We have a Canadian chain that sold very good digital meters for the price. They are no longer selling them but have substituted far poorer models at even higher prices. The old ones they had were built specifically for them.

So as I see the scenario that may be unfolding. China has no reason to care what their merchandise costs American consumers. That the American consumer has to pay a twenty five percent purchase tax in an increase in the cost of Chinese merchandise at the north America governments hands is not a real issue for them. The new taxation and the new retail costs to come are the end point of the American administrations exercise. This is a tax remember not a tariff in reality.

A possible totally flawed plan to increase the federal revenue to cover a period of the most irresponsible financial defict America may have ever seen. On the backs of the population. Trump warned the Chinese not to increase their respective tariffs thinking he could prevail with his new taxation plan. It has failed as China has just started to slap on tariffs of their own. Pushing this whole senario may bring on a recession in America. He was over the edge to think he was going to get away with what he thought anyways.

Trump quoted his desire to get industry really going again in America.

As industry is automating even in China today. There is no reason that it could not occur. Other than it seems more important to spend the money required on things like the military adventures. Where there really is no physical threat to America. Actually the American taxpayer is responsible for so much debt enacted on their behalf by many administrations it is pathetic.

Keeping the illusion alive that jobs are the important factor in a modern society. Belongs in another age. Value added is where the support of the society is today.

The richer capitalists are keeping the modernization well at bay. .The largest employer of bodies in America today is either the fast food business or the government itself. Government jobs are never in the value added sphere.

China is mass producing engineers at historically levels currently. North America does not even have free higher education to improve the future. An explanation of the failure of the north American industrial structure and many others is well overdue by the present and past administrations.

Why did we export the semi conductor business pretty much wholesale? For the greed of the few. It was a needed component of the future and known at the time. It is not labor intensive. I was only made aware of this when attempting to order some high tech chips. National semiconductors told me they produced them in China now. Same with texas instruments semi conductors.

I thought at the time long enough ago now. How could a country be this stupid. Then I thought massive greed was the answer of only a few. The public was also never informed that for all practical purposes these are not subsidiary operations in China. A condition of moving there besides the financial up front ones was. You have to give half the operation to the Chinese government in the move. So this was a legitimate technology transfer in all cases.

In a way most the evidence is the capitalistic system has failed to meet the needs of the population. They at best are only being met today with massive debt loading. The limits required to carry the capitalistic system into the future have either been ignored, laws eliminated that where in reality some controls, the use of propaganda to cover unpleasant realities, or the ban of informing the population properly about the true state of things.

As a serious example. The cause of the 2008 issue was the packaging of questionable debts and selling them at a discount across the counter with corrupt worth evaluations. They knew they were bad but indicated otherwise.

This business rather than being cleaned up is today far larger than ever before. The across the counter derivative sales currently put the whole countries financial situation at risk. Yet not a word about it is in the media. Personally I suspect money has gone digital. There is not enough of the real thing out there to legitimize the digital component. That is why when dealing with our banks they want to hold on to the real dollars.

They suspect if not know there is a liquidity problem brewing. I still have not got an answer. As to why the returns of their articles of deposit leaped five hundred percent around last Christmas. This buy in law may be used to cover the liquidity problem to some degree as they do not have to cough up real money. That they no longer have and their debt holdings values are declining in the ever increasing default rates..

In 2008 when the demand rose to cash in paper instruments the money to do so was not available. So the government did the bailout. It came so close to shutting down the system. There should have been a law immediately established.

An institution that takes on the debt must directly retain dealing with it. Other than selling marginal debt that they are much better aware that it has little real value as packages. Usually by lying or manipulation or misrepresentation to just get it off the books.

I have often wondered and have no answer as to why there was no money hardly at all in active circulation during the depression of the 1930s. Every thing was attempted to get it circulating again. With some results. At the same time that was starting to fail. Then the second world war got it going again. Yet how did all the missing money show up again? I mean there were years there that a lot of people had basically no money. Where was it? Or did trillionairs exist even back then?

This upcoming era may be a period of ever increasing hidden taxes in north America for the majority. With no actual benefits to those saddled with them. A sizable spike in retail prices may also be enabled by the current administration. My guess if I accept the current economy is doing well. It only applies to the superficial component of it. It is probably existing on quicksand. The Chinese issue otherwise could have been tackled differently with fewer potential issues. .

There is no law at re establishing production by barring certain catagories of imports. Many countries do this. In north America it is a requirement to aid in the redistribution of wealth. We cannot go on just buying everything and doing no real value added production ourselves. If a company wants to leave and they are. Just nationalize them or ban importation of what the produce under their new partial ownership in China.

China pays dearly for them to relocate there. In the longer term picture it has proven cheap for China. We think far too short term. Attempting to stamp out a series of fires all the time . Removes any focus required to get things done. Letting a political system evolve that is constantly engaged in far too many other functions that really running America. Speaks volumes in itself. Just look how great they are in their attempts to run other countries has worked out.

Polarizing a population either intentionally or otherwise might have been very counterproductive. Neither party is willing to take turns anymore. So it is a constant dogfight. I have many issues where north America is really heading for our children and grandchildren. We do not seem to have any longer range planning in place. I am for the capitalistic system under reasonable rules that are not applied. Yet have existed over time.

Last edited by barry12345; 05-13-2019 at 03:59 PM.
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  #2  
Old 05-13-2019, 06:52 PM
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China is in a lose-lose situation. They risk losing factories to the global market if tariffs cause consumers to walk. The American consumer controls the trade war... they will either pay higher prices for Chinese goods (most won't) or buy cheaper competing goods made elsewhere (most will).

American companies have a duty to their shareholders to turn profits. If their goods are priced too high people will buy cheaper brands. To prevent that they will look into opening factories in places like India and Mexico.

American companies (you call them suppliers) have every right to sell their products at any price they choose, but they usually conform to price points. Most every product is geared toward a given price point based on demand. The 'greed' you assign them is in reality flexibility allowing them to make adjustments in order to remain profitable and affordable. I can guarantee you that most all Chinese made products tariffed at 25% will NOT be passed off to the consumer at the full 25%... that isn't how it works. Companies will absorb some of the tariff or risk losing consumers to other brands.

Nothing can replace the large middle class and purchasing power of the American consumer. It's not like China can replace the American consumer. Not like we can replace their factories in other countries. It is my opinion, that given enough time, factories will begin to close in China as other countries compete for that business. Not overnight... but the longer China refuses to balance trade.. the more likely that scenario will play out.

Our President is on the right track in demanding free and fair trade. This is a trade war that America will win.


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  #3  
Old 05-14-2019, 12:17 AM
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The importance of the total north American market of 300-400 million people is declining for China. As the orient and other areas are experiencing a rise in their standards of living. The Asian market has many multiples of it population wise. When China handed out a serious financial penalty of stopping the purchase of some major agriculture products in both America and Canada.

Simply because their national was treated as being from a third rate country and taken hostage. North America found out all too quick there was nothing of a compensating nature they could do. They will never again arrest a Chinese national travelling anywhere else in the world though. That point the Chinese had to make.

Still holding her is nothing less than abject stupidity. A lot of farmers have essentially lost their businesses over it already. Crops will probably rot in the fields as a result. China has also said the loss of their market is likely permanent. The price the north American population could still pay for putting her on trial in my mind is substantial. I really think the people that are attempting to negotiate with China are essentially clueless.

When I buy from China most vendors are now aware of the excessive markups on their products here. They now sell at much higher prices direct than before as a result. They still include shipping in the price a lot but not much longer I feel.

The Chinese just upped the tariffs on what they buy from America. This means the Chinese may try to find alternative suppliers. North America has no possibility of finding alternative suppliers. Unless it wants to pay more and even that may not work. If what is needed is only produced in China.

I have been trying to find a card north America really holds in this. It is not a trade war really to start with. The only card I can find is China currently wants the north American market to remain if possible. They have no want to be a contributor to a worldwide recession either. Where America risks it.

Canada went through a substantial period in my life where our government put tariffs on many things we did not produce. It was felt by the population at large. When people think it does not substantially raise retail prices that was not our experience.

As for factories leaving China. I feel with their current drive at automation there that scenario is far less likely. They have proven that with higher labor rates you have to automate to prevent the loss of your industrial component. To nations that can provide cheaper wages. Since it also has a serious impact on workers in that country. There is a need to have the value added distributed in society properly. Pure capitalisim does not allow for that.

Many countries are increasing their population in the expectations the additional taxes will support others. Where the reality is with intense automation the problem reverses.

I went looking for a certain type of modern production machine that had an element of automation. The only company producing it today is in China. It can work 24/7 if the orders are there. It presents no employee problems. The cost is not that great in relation to what it can earn. In theory it could make me a lot of money.

This is what is required in higher wage countries. Under systems that do not really share that money. They are not the salvation of that country. Variations of it just make the rich richer.

The Chinese government owns half of all the individual manufacturing enterprises in China. If I had a company here and wanted to shift it to China. They automatically own half but put up the money to justify their ownership as it is greater than the half is worth. Their portion of the earnings goes to more development primarily. As development reaches a certain point the money flows to the population. This has been the basis of their seven times wage increase in the last 19 years. We have not done quite as well in north America except for the very rich. In that same time period.
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  #4  
Old 05-14-2019, 12:29 AM
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We send them almost useless paper in exchange for almost useless plastic. Not much of a trade war, in my opinion.
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  #5  
Old 05-14-2019, 07:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barry12345 View Post
Tariffs are intended to protect domestic market production from unfair competition. North America no longer manufactures the vast bulk of what we import from China. I saw a double whammy where the tariff will flow to the federal treasury.

Plus the cost to importers will rise. This part would not normally be a major issue. Other than if you examine what retailers are taking as a markup it becomes very concerning.

For example I priced a simple syphon pump yesterday at Walmart's on line shopping. It was 25.00 and really not worth it for a simple manual pump and hose. It is 1.69 including delivery from China to me in single quantities. So Walmart probably pays about .60 cents in quantities.

We rightfully complain about the poor quality of Chinese made aftermarket parts. The manufacturers are getting almost nothing there for producing them. If the north American suppliers where not so greedy with markups they could buy much better products to resell.

As another example . A knock sensor was close to 200.00 at the auto chain stores. That I believe are buying each other up now but leaving the chain names unchanged. Why not when I pay 12.00 for the same sensor delivered from China. Where they have to be paying less than half. I think we will see a real 25 percent retail north American cost increase on those parts. The almost 200.00 sensor will become almost 250.00.

The last example is I am buying 5 digital multimeters from China right now for about the equivelant of 5.00 American each delivered. The Chinese retailer is still making some margin. A substantial increase in quality by a Chinese firm that has been in the business a long time with only a nominal price increase if any. Reviews on it where remarkably good for the price. We have a Canadian chain that sold very good digital meters for the price. They are no longer selling them but have substituted far poorer models at even higher prices. The old ones they had were built specifically for them.

So as I see the scenario that may be unfolding. China has no reason to care what their merchandise costs American consumers. That the American consumer has to pay a twenty five percent purchase tax in an increase in the cost of Chinese merchandise at the north America governments hands is not a real issue for them. The new taxation and the new retail costs to come are the end point of the American administrations exercise. This is a tax remember not a tariff in reality.

A possible totally flawed plan to increase the federal revenue to cover a period of the most irresponsible financial defict America may have ever seen. On the backs of the population. Trump warned the Chinese not to increase their respective tariffs thinking he could prevail with his new taxation plan. It has failed as China has just started to slap on tariffs of their own. Pushing this whole senario may bring on a recession in America. He was over the edge to think he was going to get away with what he thought anyways.

Trump quoted his desire to get industry really going again in America.

As industry is automating even in China today. There is no reason that it could not occur. Other than it seems more important to spend the money required on things like the military adventures. Where there really is no physical threat to America. Actually the American taxpayer is responsible for so much debt enacted on their behalf by many administrations it is pathetic.

Keeping the illusion alive that jobs are the important factor in a modern society. Belongs in another age. Value added is where the support of the society is today.

The richer capitalists are keeping the modernization well at bay. .The largest employer of bodies in America today is either the fast food business or the government itself. Government jobs are never in the value added sphere.

China is mass producing engineers at historically levels currently. North America does not even have free higher education to improve the future. An explanation of the failure of the north American industrial structure and many others is well overdue by the present and past administrations.

Why did we export the semi conductor business pretty much wholesale? For the greed of the few. It was a needed component of the future and known at the time. It is not labor intensive. I was only made aware of this when attempting to order some high tech chips. National semiconductors told me they produced them in China now. Same with texas instruments semi conductors.

I thought at the time long enough ago now. How could a country be this stupid. Then I thought massive greed was the answer of only a few. The public was also never informed that for all practical purposes these are not subsidiary operations in China. A condition of moving there besides the financial up front ones was. You have to give half the operation to the Chinese government in the move. So this was a legitimate technology transfer in all cases.

In a way most the evidence is the capitalistic system has failed to meet the needs of the population. They at best are only being met today with massive debt loading. The limits required to carry the capitalistic system into the future have either been ignored, laws eliminated that where in reality some controls, the use of propaganda to cover unpleasant realities, or the ban of informing the population properly about the true state of things.

As a serious example. The cause of the 2008 issue was the packaging of questionable debts and selling them at a discount across the counter with corrupt worth evaluations. They knew they were bad but indicated otherwise.

This business rather than being cleaned up is today far larger than ever before. The across the counter derivative sales currently put the whole countries financial situation at risk. Yet not a word about it is in the media. Personally I suspect money has gone digital. There is not enough of the real thing out there to legitimize the digital component. That is why when dealing with our banks they want to hold on to the real dollars.

They suspect if not know there is a liquidity problem brewing. I still have not got an answer. As to why the returns of their articles of deposit leaped five hundred percent around last Christmas. This buy in law may be used to cover the liquidity problem to some degree as they do not have to cough up real money. That they no longer have and their debt holdings values are declining in the ever increasing default rates..

In 2008 when the demand rose to cash in paper instruments the money to do so was not available. So the government did the bailout. It came so close to shutting down the system. There should have been a law immediately established.

An institution that takes on the debt must directly retain dealing with it. Other than selling marginal debt that they are much better aware that it has little real value as packages. Usually by lying or manipulation or misrepresentation to just get it off the books.

I have often wondered and have no answer as to why there was no money hardly at all in active circulation during the depression of the 1930s. Every thing was attempted to get it circulating again. With some results. At the same time that was starting to fail. Then the second world war got it going again. Yet how did all the missing money show up again? I mean there were years there that a lot of people had basically no money. Where was it? Or did trillionairs exist even back then?

This upcoming era may be a period of ever increasing hidden taxes in north America for the majority. With no actual benefits to those saddled with them. A sizable spike in retail prices may also be enabled by the current administration. My guess if I accept the current economy is doing well. It only applies to the superficial component of it. It is probably existing on quicksand. The Chinese issue otherwise could have been tackled differently with fewer potential issues. .

There is no law at re establishing production by barring certain catagories of imports. Many countries do this. In north America it is a requirement to aid in the redistribution of wealth. We cannot go on just buying everything and doing no real value added production ourselves. If a company wants to leave and they are. Just nationalize them or ban importation of what the produce under their new partial ownership in China.

China pays dearly for them to relocate there. In the longer term picture it has proven cheap for China. We think far too short term. Attempting to stamp out a series of fires all the time . Removes any focus required to get things done. Letting a political system evolve that is constantly engaged in far too many other functions that really running America. Speaks volumes in itself. Just look how great they are in their attempts to run other countries has worked out.

Polarizing a population either intentionally or otherwise might have been very counterproductive. Neither party is willing to take turns anymore. So it is a constant dogfight. I have many issues where north America is really heading for our children and grandchildren. We do not seem to have any longer range planning in place. I am for the capitalistic system under reasonable rules that are not applied. Yet have existed over time.
That's a lot of words nobody is ever going to read.

LOL
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  #6  
Old 05-14-2019, 08:36 AM
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Originally Posted by tjts1 View Post
That's a lot of words nobody is ever going to read.

LOL
True! The stock market will be back in the 26Ks before I do it.
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  #7  
Old 05-14-2019, 09:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barry12345 View Post
The importance of the total north American market of 300-400 million people is declining for China. As the orient and other areas are experiencing a rise in their standards of living.

China has been selling to the"orient and other places" for quite awhile. there is no significant uptick in those markets. Look at what they risk losing....https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_consumer_markets



A lot of farmers have essentially lost their businesses over it already. Crops will probably rot in the fields as a result.


Name one farmer please. Subsidies prevent that, so does replacing old crops with different crops. Let me see one field of rotted soy beans.


China has also said the loss of their market is likely permanent.

Again, no loss. farmers adapt and plant other crops.


When I buy from China most vendors are now aware of the excessive markups on their products here.

Powerful observation about how communism works compared to capitalism. The average Chinese can't afford Chinese products made in China.

North America has no possibility of finding alternative suppliers. Unless it wants to pay more and even that may not work. If what is needed is only produced in China.

You should try fact checking your 'feelings'. factories have already begun to leave China... https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2018/07/30/trade-war-casualties-factories-shifting-out-of-china/#65709762103e


I have been trying to find a card north America really holds in this.
Our roaring economy is one. Another is the lowest unemployment in 50 years (translates to more consumer buying power). China's economy will suffer the most, yet you seem to ignore articles written about that. Google them. And the largest card is what is already occurring... factories are leaving China. Why do you think China hasn't slapped Apple with any Tariffs? They employ 4.8 MILLION workers!


As for factories leaving China... As I provided evidence of... it's already happening.

Inserted my answers into your text.
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  #8  
Old 05-20-2019, 10:08 AM
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Tariffs just hurt u.s. buyers. Why? Because everything is made in china,now if michelin,and american companies came back, and wages rose,then cool.
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  #9  
Old 05-21-2019, 01:29 PM
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Maybe if tariffs raise cost high enough, we could start manufacturing stuff in this country (again)
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  #10  
Old 05-23-2019, 03:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cornemuse View Post
Maybe if tariffs raise cost high enough, we could start manufacturing stuff in this country (again)


Until the concept of north America living within it's means are engaged. Or very serious attempts are made to go in that direction. The rapid accumulation of more debt at all levels of government will persist. This can at some point create great difficulty for enterprises. Plus the majority of the population.

I am for the capitalist system as it serves my families needs. At the same time it is not really doing it well enough for about fifty percent of the population.

North America is attempting to compete against other forms of governments. Currently on average their standards of living are not as good. At the same time it is almost steadily moving upward for them.

More people are finding employment reciently. That is a good thing. Yet at the same time what is going on in the background is perhaps far more important. Improvements are needed there as well.

A booming economy historically creates a surplus for governments. If that is compromised or offset with massive larger debt growth at the same time. I have no ideal of what you would call it.

Other than not sustainable. The tool of choice to deal with this historically has been inflation to a degree that hurts the majority of citizens. We are seeing a ripple of it in Canada currently. In the housing costs and food cost areas. Especially in the last few years. They both are steadily far outpacing average wage gains. While for public consumption general inflation is claimed to be about two percent.

Rather than seeing new manufacturing emerge. We are going to be lucky to hold on to what we have left. Without major changes.

Last edited by barry12345; 05-23-2019 at 03:56 PM.
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  #11  
Old 05-23-2019, 05:07 PM
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Wonder if China is still buying our debt? If they are I imagine when they stop it will chill our economy.
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  #12  
Old 05-24-2019, 12:35 PM
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Dumping what American debt the Chinese hold now might be more concerning. I just think they are more responsible than to do that.

I also think the Chinese are well aware that the trade imbalance is unsustainable over the longer if not shorter term. Yet America has not bothered to develop a real plan.

Threats and putting a tax on the population is not a plan. Well part of it may be. The increased taxation part. Many countries ban importation in some industrial sectors like Japan does. They just do not let imports of those items in.

China told Canada that our agriculture products no longer meet their standards. So we lost the substantial export of pork and field crops to them.

What disturbs me the most. Is we cannot start to automate production at the rate the Chinese are doing. Under our system the rewards would only be captured by the few. So there would be no general relief. Under the Chinese system a heavy percentage of them are distributed across their society. China is also protecting it's industrial base from countries with cheaper labor. in the process.

I am happy that the economy is booming in north America.

Last edited by barry12345; 05-24-2019 at 03:15 PM.
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