Stock Market Sentiment - PeachParts Mercedes-Benz Forum

420SEL · #1 08-01-2003, 10:40 PM

I just wanted to get an idea of everyone's market expectations over for the next year or so.

G-Benz · #2 08-02-2003, 12:50 AM

To hell with the stock market!

I have hated watching my portfolios, IRAs and mutual funds go down the toilet!

Take your money and invest in real estate!

Buy some property build rental homes or buy apartments...I have several friends that have gone this route and are netting a few hundred to over a thousand dollars a month!

I own another house, but unfortunately, it's occupied by a sister-in-law (who we don't collect rent from)...

...(sigh) I need to quit accumulating assets that don't generate any form of income...

420SEL · #3 08-02-2003, 01:31 PM

I do mean 2004. Over 10,000 could mean way over. I am trying to get a feel for bullish vs bearish sentiment among members. If you think 10,000 is too low let me know, and give me your call for it too.

#4 08-02-2003, 06:21 PM

In my opinion, it will definitely go up. It will especially do so when this whole thing is cooled down in Iraq, if it ever is cooled down.
Tim

420SEL · #5 08-03-2003, 05:21 PM

Come on everybody. Almost 70 views and only 10 votes. Everybody must have an opinion, educated or not. The DOW closed last week at 9153.97 What does your experience, your knowledge, or your gut tell you. And more importantly what does your money say, are you long, short, or out all together? I am doing a number of informal surveys on market sentiment and could use your input,

Thanks.

suginami · #6 08-03-2003, 06:35 PM

Why did you choose 2004 for the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) to go over 10,000?

I believe it is likely to go over 10,000 (or get very close to it) by the end of this year.

The economy grew at a faster pace in the last quarter than economists had predicted. Markets are efficient, and capital always flow in the direction where there are higher returns.

More and more investors are turning to stocks as interest rates continue to rise. The federal budget deficit is causing the rise in interest rates, causing bond owners to sell.

Kuan · #7 08-03-2003, 06:38 PM

Well, I don't know if it will get over 10,000, but I think we'll see steady gains soon. Even McDonald's has rebounded, and GE without Jack Welch is looking fine. I think GM and Disney will be dogs while Microsoft and Walmart will do more than their part in keeping the big 30 afloat. HP needs to beef up its services and try to get away from the PC whore market. Boeing won't fly if the airlines don't fly but companies like 3M and Honeywell who have found their way into the biotech market will do quite well.

Ah, that's it for my take, quite optimistic, but I don't see more than 10% gain a year.

PS: Home Depot has killed quite a few people, but as long as mortgage rates stay low I think they'll do well.

PPS: It just dawned on me that as long as there is a Walmart there will be a Procter and Gamble, since Walmart sells practically all of PnG's products!

Snibble · #8 08-03-2003, 07:35 PM

NEVER EVER invest a good amount in real estate! I have a family friend that learned the hard way.

G-Benz · #9 08-04-2003, 10:16 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Snibble
NEVER EVER invest a good amount in real estate! I have a family friend that learned the hard way.

Please elaborate on this one...most of my peers are doing well in this area...

Kuan · #10 08-04-2003, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Snibble
NEVER EVER invest a good amount in real estate! I have a family friend that learned the hard way.

Hear that Lebenz? Get rid of that vacation property now!

Seriously, traditional wisdom is to never invest too much in anything. Same can be said of investing all your money in a 1956 Porsche 956.

Snibble · #11 08-04-2003, 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by G-Benz
Please elaborate on this one...most of my peers are doing well in this area...

The individual purchased large amounts of real estate and recently when he tried to sell wasn't too successful. I am not saying DON'T invest 100%... but don't too much invest too much in this area.

Kestas · #12 08-04-2003, 09:29 PM

And I put my money where my mouth is. I just bought a good chunk of Ford stock a month ago at 11.5. I wanted to buy it when it was at 7, but couldn't find an online stock broker with the right price structure. When it started creeping past 11, I put my but in gear and found an online trader that meets my needs.

Botnst · #13 08-04-2003, 10:23 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Lebenz
I cant tell you a numerical value by the end of da year (wish I could but the last 5 weeks have seen a HUGE run-up with only about a 25% hit at the top. A number of traditionally good stocks are at or near at 2 year highs. There is a lot of industrial money flowing into the market again. If we have no more major bad events, you will see continual nice run ups on the top traded stocks, at least.

For the time, I'm happily with G-Benz but have also put some cash back into the market, which has done very well, btw.

Heck, its been great! My 101k is nearly a 201k!

Nevertheless, I'm thinking over 10000 by Christmas, barring terrorism and such.

Botnst

Cressida · #14 08-09-2003, 04:46 PM

I'm not as optimistic as I was a month ago.

I was at at discount type store today that was liquidating and had everything 25% off. Noticed that many people looking but few buying even at those prices. The consumer seems to be demanding aggresive discounts before spending cash in my area.

Hope natural gas prices decline in next month or two or winter bills will take another bite out of ones income.

I don't know if it is going to be deflation or inflation. Maybe some of both?

Real estate prices seem high in the cities but it always seems that way. On the other hand, in many small communities you can still buy older homes much cheaper than you could build them. All depends on if people have jobs and income.

suginami · #15 08-09-2003, 06:48 PM

The recession ended a looooong time ago. It actually started while Clinton was still in office, and ended shortly after Bush took office. Neither of them really should get the blame, or the credit for it. It is what it is.

It was the shortest recession since the government started measuring them.

What makes people "feel" that we are still in a recession is that while the economy has been growing, it has been growing at a very slow rate. While the economy has been showing positive growth, the stock market failed to show any signs of improving (until recently), and companies were shedding workers and unable to produce profits.

While your sentiment has changed in the last 30 days, all of the economic data available says the economy is really heating up. Investors are putting their money into blue chip stocks big time, pushing up the DOW. Investor sentiment was triggered by continuing rises in productivity and a drop in jobless claims.

You can also look at the bond market, as the sell-off continues. The yield on bonds has soared about a point in the last two weeks, sending the price on old bonds falling. A bond market sell-off is a result of an economy which is well into the recovery phase.

Last, consumer "dependent" stocks, such as Home Depot, McDonald's, Wal-Mart, and Target all saw their stock prices increases in the last several weeks. All have been showing results that were even greater than what analysts were projecting. And remember that the price of a stock is determined not how it is performing today, but how investors feel the company will do in the future.

As I said earlier - markets are efficient, and money flows in the direction where there are higher returns. And money is flying out of bonds and pouring into stocks. If the outlook was poor or uncertain, believe me, money would be going back into bonds, and you'll see the interest rate on home mortgages back around 5.0%.

View Poll Results: Where will the Dow Finish 2004?
Up (over 10,000)	11	50.00%
Sideways (9,000-9,200)	7	31.82%
Down (under 9,000)	3	13.64%
Way Down (under 7,500)	1	4.55%
Voters: 22. You may not vote on this poll