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  #1  
Old 05-26-2004, 10:04 AM
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Is the economy going back in the tank?

This is a very bad sign:

http://money.cnn.com/2004/05/26/news/economy/durables/index.htm

Throw in the gas price shock, the market falling below 10,000, the fall in the value of the dollar,enormous trade and budget deficits, the drag of the war in Iraq, do you think the economy, which supposedly had been improving, is going back into the ditch?
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Old 05-26-2004, 11:58 AM
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You need to take that with a grain of salt. I don't think any of those "economic experts" know what is up or down. I heard it on the news last night that the housing market was the second best in history in April, but today they have an article on front page news that the new house sales tumble. Now how is that for the people in the know talking with both sides of the mouth?

Washington Post is a prime example of cluelessness. I have seen conflicting news between pages on major economic issues. Economic is really a "black magic".
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Old 05-26-2004, 12:43 PM
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It never really came out of a ditch. They just made you think that.

The last couple of quarters have been positive in earnings but guess what, of course when you cut your workforce you'll have more money temporarily. Some industies have done well though.

The job growth of last couple of months was really summer work picking up - students returning to their food service jobs and/or some new low paying McJobs. Not real growth IMHO.

Housing, what a joke there. You can build all the homes you want but when you have historically highest forclosures the reality is that there are lots and lots of brand new empties sitting around everywhere. Banks are being really greedy here and want the full market value or more. Some of that is because people have financed way more then market value of their homes. So the cycle continues...

I think we haven't seen the bottom yet, not even close. If we get 4 more y of the shrub we'll surely find out.
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Old 05-26-2004, 12:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by mzsmbs


Housing, what a joke there. You can build all the homes you want but when you have historically highest forclosures the reality is that there are lots and lots of brand new empties sitting around everywhere. Banks are being really greedy here and want the full market value or more. Some of that is because people have financed way more then market value of their homes. So the cycle continues...
ain't that the truth, I would like to elaborate in detail but due to privacy concerns I can't but I know of a family that purchased a 500K home ( the median around here is 150K) and could not afford the moving costs and needed them built in to the mortgage.

a real estate collapse could do more than 10 9-11s back to back. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are holding onto 4 TRILLION in paper. Our economy is only a scandal away from being ruined. I know that the manty of the gaps are covered by PMI, but since when does PMI pay and the PMI companies don't have a pot to piss in to begin with.

Personally I think the economy is great, but these risky RE lending practices have to be reformed asap.
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Old 05-26-2004, 01:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by mzsmbs
Some of that is because people have financed way more then market value of their homes. So the cycle continues...
Lots of strapped families saddled with incredible debt loads! Some due to excessive spending, many due to months of unemployment forcing families to deplete savings, IRSs etc., before finally leveraging themselves to death!

And articles I've read indicate that summer employment is extremely difficult for the youth, due to adults filling those gaps...
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  #6  
Old 05-26-2004, 01:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by MedMech


Personally I think the economy is great, but these risky RE lending practices have to be reformed asap.
I sure hope so.
People lend their down payments, etc., here (put it on top of the mortgage) and in reality that just goes on top of the total price essencially doubling the down payment amout thus bumping the morgage over value of the home-no money down. riiiiight!

"The economy is great." Hmm?
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Old 05-26-2004, 01:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by G-Benz
Lots of strapped families saddled with incredible debt loads! Some due to excessive spending, many due to months of unemployment forcing families to deplete savings, IRSs etc., before finally leveraging themselves to death!

And articles I've read indicate that summer employment is extremely difficult for the youth, due to adults filling those gaps...
and illegal aliens. My teenagers and their friends can't find the kind of grocery sacking jobs that were around when I was a kid. The Mexicans are doing them. I think that is also underminig family income - I know when I was a kid when my brother and I started bringing in some household income it sure was a help to my folks.
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Old 05-26-2004, 01:35 PM
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Originally posted by G-Benz


And articles I've read indicate that summer employment is extremely difficult for the youth, due to adults filling those gaps...
Actually that's the truth-it's been like that last couple of summers. I just meant that there really aren't any new jobs; maybe just seasonal increase.
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  #9  
Old 05-26-2004, 01:41 PM
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[quote]Look for orders to rebound in May, reflecting broad-based recovery within the manufacturing sector," Edward Yardeni, chief investment strategist at Prudential Financial, said in a note to clients.

Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, considered a proxy for business investment, fell 3.5 percent in April. But that followed gains of 6.0 percent and 2.3 percent in March and February, respectively. [/quoe]

Another case of a slight drop, in an otherwise nice turn around, and some folks cry that the sky is falling. Sheez
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Old 05-26-2004, 01:47 PM
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Our shop is busier than it's been in 2 years. We're buying new machines, hiring more people, put a second shift back on...
Looks good so far.
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Old 05-26-2004, 01:49 PM
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by Lebenz
Quote:
Look for orders to rebound in May, reflecting broad-based recovery within the manufacturing sector," Edward Yardeni, chief investment strategist at Prudential Financial, said in a note to clients.

Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, considered a proxy for business investment, fell 3.5 percent in April. But that followed gains of 6.0 percent and 2.3 percent in March and February, respectively. [/quoe]

Another case of a slight drop, in an otherwise nice turn around, and some folks cry that the sky is falling. Sheez
I hope your right. What worries me is the simultaneous occurance at this time of so many negative economic events. The gas price rise is essentially the equivalent of an across-the-board income tax hike on wage earners, while the other factors like deficits and debt loads threaten those whose wealth is based in equities or bonds. It at least bears prudent watching.
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  #12  
Old 05-26-2004, 01:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by rickg
Our shop is busier than it's been in 2 years. We're buying new machines, hiring more people, put a second shift back on...
Looks good so far.
What business are you in, if you don't mind my asking?
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Old 05-26-2004, 01:56 PM
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Just wondering something. Maybe you higher edumacated types can answer this.
Is a good economy/bad economy evidenced differently in, say blue collar jobs and white collar jobs? We all tanked pretty evenly back a couple years ago, but recovery seems to come at different times in different job catagories. Our shop(blue-collar-type jobs) seemed to start picking up alot sooner than all then news was reporting a supposed recovery. Or maybe it's just more locale-oriented, depending on the prevailing industry. We have a pretty diverse customer base, and baring another 9/11, the future is looking bright at the moment.

Oh, to answer Kirk, it's a contract job-shop machine shop. Don't do any Boeing stuff, thank god!
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  #14  
Old 05-26-2004, 02:15 PM
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This kind of thing is so interesting to me, and so much of the way data is presented is slanted to affect a desired result. A lot of what I sense can not be shown in any reportable numbers. Iím beginning to chart the difference between average and median economic numbers, but I still canít show what I think is happening. Maybe itís just my street kid, simplistic view of things, but it appears that the economy is being carried more and more on the backs of fewer and fewer people with larger and larger incomes. When it comes to the truly upper income people youíll find they donít really need, or feel the need to buy much of anything. They have what they have by knowing how not to spend, or to spend in a way that they are actually buying assets that tend to appreciate. So if Iím right, the time comes when consumers that the economy depends on sit back and wait for a depreciation in assets, before they come into the market. How many things are advertised or promoted to the masses anymore. Except for Wal-Mart; companies break even or have very low margins in the low end, where traditionally the money was to be made. Theyíre making the money off of promoting goods that are only affordable to higher income people and more and more they need to finance their purchases. When upper income people over extend themselves it seems a bigger problem than if the lower end, whichís always stressed, goes bust. As long as we have a controllable level of inflation and a steady supply of new participants it seems to work well, but Iím wondering what happens when this huge demographic retires. Since weíve had, from the end of WWII, the bonding capacity for the entire world inflation here has always been controllable, but China and the developing world are beginning to pick up the slack at the lower end of consumption, which may bump us from the catbird seat. I have no idea where weíre headed, but I sure do like to watch. Find a way to remove real debt, what you couldnít pay off any time you wanted too, from you life, or you might get caught in a little squeeze.
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Old 05-26-2004, 02:30 PM
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We also need to consider that most of the "new jobs" are in the low wage category. There are only so many high paying jobs out there, and even those are being outsourced to India and China.

When the majority of the people live from hand to mouth, how else are they going to substain the current economy, in view that consumer spending makes up of 2/3 of our GDP.

I think it will be very soon that the American middle class as we know will become a thing of the past. There will only be two classes, the low and the upper. Thus the gap between the haves and havenots will be that much alarmingly greater. Hate to see when the day comes "the revolution is only a pay check away"
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