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  #16  
Old 05-15-2015, 11:45 AM
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The faulty intelligence? The Hawks that think war is the answer to everything? Pressure from outside governments?

Right now there is a chance that Obama is going to work a deal with Iran that will bring a sort of peace to the area. Reagan said to Trust, but Verify. Obama has made it clear he does not trust Iran and the verify part is the only one that will work if this deal is to go through. Maybe it will, maybe it won't.

But there will be a great temptation on the part of the Republicans to tear down everything Obama did and if that means going to war with Iran to show that Obama was wrong.... Could they afford to pass that chance up if it meant tarnishing Obama?
How does one differentiate faulty intelligence from accurate intelligence?

Hindsight makes us all experts.
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Old 05-15-2015, 12:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Botnst View Post
How does one differentiate faulty intelligence from accurate intelligence?

Hindsight makes us all experts.
Faulty intelligence is when the "experts" state Iraq unequivocally has yellowcake uranium and the only way to stop them is by bombing them.

Much like the current “experts” stating Iran is months away from developing “the bomb” and the only way to stop them is by bombing them.
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  #18  
Old 05-15-2015, 01:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Botnst View Post
How does one differentiate faulty intelligence from accurate intelligence?

Hindsight makes us all experts.
Much of the intelligence about Saddam's weapons program came from a source known as 'Hardball'. The Germans had dealing with this guy and were able to prove he was a fake. They also let the CIA know this.

Hardball showed up at the CIA and told them everything he knew. The CIA went to verify his info and found it to be totally false. They shared this with Bush who by that time did not want to hear it and pushed Hardball on to the US as the real thing.

After the war was over Hardball admitted he made everything up. He thought he could swing a cushy deal with the CIA for refuge in the US and a lifetime supply of money while being in the witness protection program. That did not happen but it was his motivation for lying to the US and the Germans and anyone else that would listen to him.

So no hindsight was involved. It was all right there in front of Bush and Cheney and they chose to go with what they wanted to think was the truth.

But then they are Conservatives, so lying to themselves is something they were accustomed to.
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  #19  
Old 05-15-2015, 02:53 PM
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Originally Posted by ruchase View Post
Faulty intelligence is when the "experts" state Iraq unequivocally has yellowcake uranium and the only way to stop them is by bombing them.

Much like the current “experts” stating Iran is months away from developing “the bomb” and the only way to stop them is by bombing them.
Ah, the genius of hindsight, well portrayed. Thanks.
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  #20  
Old 05-15-2015, 03:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Idle View Post
Much of the intelligence about Saddam's weapons program came from a source known as 'Hardball'. The Germans had dealing with this guy and were able to prove he was a fake. They also let the CIA know this.

Hardball showed up at the CIA and told them everything he knew. The CIA went to verify his info and found it to be totally false. They shared this with Bush who by that time did not want to hear it and pushed Hardball on to the US as the real thing.

After the war was over Hardball admitted he made everything up. He thought he could swing a cushy deal with the CIA for refuge in the US and a lifetime supply of money while being in the witness protection program. That did not happen but it was his motivation for lying to the US and the Germans and anyone else that would listen to him.

So no hindsight was involved. It was all right there in front of Bush and Cheney and they chose to go with what they wanted to think was the truth.

But then they are Conservatives, so lying to themselves is something they were accustomed to.
The intelligence community receives huge volumes of information, mostly unreliable, unverifiable and from shady characters with all manner of agendas or from signals intelligence, which often lacks context.

The analysts provide senior execs with assessments, the senior execs package it for distribution to "need to know" appointees and elected officials. It is the right and duty of people up and down the food chain to question the analysts and follow to the sources in order to understand the reliability of the data.

Sometimes they get it wrong. When they do, sometimes nothing happens and sometimes we do dumb things and people die. We know about sensational failures as they are difficult to hide. We do not know about secret failures nor do we know anything about actual successes.

Notice how there is no need for shyte-brained partisanship in order to understand the process.

Will our leadership continue to screw-up? Sure. Look at the current administration and we can list their spectacular screw-ups. We should not know about their successful clandestine and covert ops, but we do.

But you know what? I am not surprised that the current administration has failures. They only people who never fail are those who never dare.

The next administration, regardless of party, will have challenges. None will be the same as previous challenges except in the broadest possible sense. They will screw things up. They will get things right. Deal with it.
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