Obama's "data mining"?

MS Fowler · #1 06-10-2012, 12:35 PM

So there are reports that Obama has the most sophisticated data mining operation, and that in a close election, it could spell the difference.
Really?

I don't get it. Is the electorate composed of people so easily swayed that some emails will change their mind. I get political telemarketer calls all the time, but not a single one ever changed my mind.
How does a "data miming" operation generate votes?

The same thing for campaign war chests---is cash directly proportional to votes? I don't think so, but, they must be, or why would campaigns spend so much money on political consultants?

What am I missing?

Brian Carlton · #2 06-10-2012, 12:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MS Fowler

I don't get it. Is the electorate composed of people so easily swayed that some emails will change their mind.

Oh............they most certainly are. Some e-mails, some questionable internet postings, and some outright lies and you will turn some otherwise semi-intelligent persons to those with their heads firmly buried in the sand.

We might even know a few.

aklim · #3 06-10-2012, 12:51 PM

Dunno since we haven't had that much history to show if it works or not. It could work or it could be the slight edge needed, in which case, it will become crucial. OTOH, it might not work and be a joke on whomever tries to run it. In theory, I think it could work from the standpoint that you can use it to target your message to whomever or whatever you want, see what feedback you get and readjust.

tbomachines · #4 06-10-2012, 01:01 PM

More data = better targeted advertising, and hence more effective advertising.

MS Fowler · #5 06-10-2012, 01:24 PM

OK, If I understand, it is simply a way to "get their message out".

So if a candidate loses after extensive use of data mining will they still be able to use the excuse that " we didn't get our message out"?
Sometimes, the message gets out and is rejected.
Correct, or not?

aklim · #6 06-10-2012, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MS Fowler

OK, If I understand, it is simply a way to "get their message out".

So if a candidate loses after extensive use of data mining will they still be able to use the excuse that " we didn't get our message out"?
Sometimes, the message gets out and is rejected.
Correct, or not?

Well if you are talking about a spin after the loss, WGAS? You lost, plain and simple. Just concede, STFU and move on.

tbomachines · #7 06-10-2012, 01:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MS Fowler

OK, If I understand, it is simply a way to "get their message out".

So if a candidate loses after extensive use of data mining will they still be able to use the excuse that " we didn't get our message out"?
Sometimes, the message gets out and is rejected.
Correct, or not?

Data mining is different than actually getting your message out. Typically any marketing or PR strategist will go through a number of stages, and with an election campaign you can bet that there are numerous firms working on different subsets of the "market" in order to get the most for the campaign's money.

- Research (this is where data mining comes in). Gathering data about your audience, along with any pertinent interests or characteristics. Since data is so widely available these days with people voluntarily giving their info up over the internet, it is no surprise that a large PR movement like a national election would be the largest single data gathering cause in history. I'd bet that the next national election trumps it though, if we continue on trending towards more information.
- strategizing - crafting message to suit audiences, figuring out the best and most affective messages
- implementation - actually putting the message out there, using a variety of media and formats. This would be where the cold calls and telemarketers come in.
- Research - analyze effectiveness and reevaluate the implementation and strategy if necessary

That's a very basic life cycle of a PR campaign. Data mining and implementation are two different aspects of it, I feel like you're getting the two mixed up. As far as "getting the message out", that is either a fault in the original "message" (usually a PR firm anyways) or a fault in the implementation (the PR firm's fault

...notice it's never the candidate!). In the end if you lose, you lose. I'd imagine anything after that is just damage control to some degree...but ultimately it is pointless. A lot of times making excuses for losing is just going to make you look worse and disorganized.

elchivito · #8 06-10-2012, 02:11 PM

Data mining. Research. Same thing. But data mining sounds ever so much more sinister.

The Clk Man · #9 06-10-2012, 03:13 PM

Does anyone remember the "Bot" experiment a while back, where the Programer thought that the software could predict the future based on what keywords it found and what words surrounded the keyword?

MS Fowler · #10 06-10-2012, 04:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tbomachines

Data mining is different than actually getting your message out. Typically any marketing or PR strategist will go through a number of stages, and with an election campaign you can bet that there are numerous firms working on different subsets of the "market" in order to get the most for the campaign's money.

- Research (this is where data mining comes in). Gathering data about your audience, along with any pertinent interests or characteristics. Since data is so widely available these days with people voluntarily giving their info up over the internet, it is no surprise that a large PR movement like a national election would be the largest single data gathering cause in history. I'd bet that the next national election trumps it though, if we continue on trending towards more information.
- strategizing - crafting message to suit audiences, figuring out the best and most affective messages
- implementation - actually putting the message out there, using a variety of media and formats. This would be where the cold calls and telemarketers come in.
- Research - analyze effectiveness and reevaluate the implementation and strategy if necessary

That's a very basic life cycle of a PR campaign. Data mining and implementation are two different aspects of it, I feel like you're getting the two mixed up. As far as "getting the message out", that is either a fault in the original "message" (usually a PR firm anyways) or a fault in the implementation (the PR firm's fault

...notice it's never the candidate!). In the end if you lose, you lose. I'd imagine anything after that is just damage control to some degree...but ultimately it is pointless. A lot of times making excuses for losing is just going to make you look worse and disorganized.

You are right. PR is not my thing. One is "research", the other implements that research.

Air&Road · #11 06-10-2012, 06:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Clk Man

Does anyone remember the "Bot" experiment a while back, where the Programer thought that the software could predict the future based on what keywords it found and what words surrounded the keyword?

POS · #12 06-10-2012, 08:34 PM

I recall Bush being attacked for wire-tapping outgoing foreign phone calls.

The Clk Man · #13 06-10-2012, 09:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LarryBible

What's so funny?

Honus · #14 06-10-2012, 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by POS

I recall Bush being attacked for wire-tapping outgoing foreign phone calls.

Right. Those were illegal. Obama, AFAIK, has violated no laws. Seems like an important distinction to me.

spdrun · #15 06-10-2012, 11:45 PM

Dear data miners: please note that all campaign mail going to this address will be summarily shredded, and all campaign phone calls will be answered profanely.

L♥ve always,
the Management

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