Has anyone read Hubbert's Peak by Deffeyes? It's an extension of Hubbert's research on the peak of US oil production, to the whole world. Hubbert argued in the late 1950's that US oil production would peak in the 1970's. It actually peaked in 1970. Deffeyes applies the same methodological principles to the world's oil supply and argues that it will peak between 2004 and 2008.

I'm curious as to whether anyone on the board disputes his figures or methodology.

The author is a very engaging writer. I enjoyed the book as much for what I learned about oil geology and oil history as for it's major thesis.

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1977 300d 70k--sold 08
1985 300TD 185k+
1984 307d 126k--sold 8/03
1985 409d 65k--sold 06
1984 300SD 315k--daughter's car
1979 300SD 122k--sold 2/11
1999 Fuso FG Expedition Camper
1993 GMC Sierra 6.5 TD 4x4
1982 Bluebird Wanderlodge CAT 3208--Sold 2/13

I think his work is plausible. There's now a group that holds annual academic gatherings based on the concept, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (www.peakoil.net). Not a neutral group, but at least they're discussing it, and starting to get more establishment interest. Another proponent is Matthew Simmons, the energy investment banker from Simmons & Co. in Houston, who's given a number of presentations on oil and gas depletion. The company's website, www.simmonsco-intl.com, has a number of his presentations and speeches archived (under the "Our Research" menu) that go into a lot of detail from the business (vs. Deffeye's academic) perspective. We're already past the "Hubbert's Peak" of US natural gas production, at least from easily accessible reservoirs, and we've invested accordingly.

That's a great site with lots of info. It's not an academic issue. I'll bet a really good sociologist will be able to correlate the graph of the decline in oil production with a graph of increase in worldwide conflict.

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1977 300d 70k--sold 08
1985 300TD 185k+
1984 307d 126k--sold 8/03
1985 409d 65k--sold 06
1984 300SD 315k--daughter's car
1979 300SD 122k--sold 2/11
1999 Fuso FG Expedition Camper
1993 GMC Sierra 6.5 TD 4x4
1982 Bluebird Wanderlodge CAT 3208--Sold 2/13

Hey Kerry,

I was listening to the Diane Rehm Show this morning. The subject was the rising price of oil and how factors in Russia, Venezuela, the Middle East and elsewhere are driving up the cost of oil. One of the guests was Robert Lieber, who is the author of "The Oil Decade" and also a professor of government and foreign service at Georgetown University.

A caller asked him the same question, and Lieber pretty much dismissed Hubbert's theory. Lieber said they've been saying the same thing about oil reserves for 30 years; what they failed to take into account was the greater efficiency oil exploration has achieved (like being able to drill 5 miles in the Gulf of Mexico) and also efficiency in usage.

He said the real problem is not how much oil is left, but where it is concentrated and the lack of stability in those areas of the world.

I'm just recapping what the man said, by the way. I have no formed opinion one way or the other, so please, no flaming posts!

Kirk

I think that's true. If you get the chance, take a look at "Resource Wars" by Michael Klare. The author makes a reasonable case that much (most) of US foreign policy is guided by oil. He also notes that water's an even bigger problem, and one that most people haven't thought about yet, but will in the next decade or so.

People in Colorado think about the water issue. It's being rationed in Denver now. I haven't read 'Resource Wars'.

Deffeyes argument takes into account increases in productive efficiences and exploration. His argument is not about the date oil will run out. His argument is that we can know the productive peak. Lieber is right that people have been arguing about this for 30 yrs. The inconvenient fact is that Hubbert was more or less exact on the peak of US production. Efficiences in usage will not effect the fact that oil production has peaked. The decline in that peak will have immense sociological, political, economic and psychological consequences irregardless of where the oil reserves are found.

Take a simple example. In the 19th century when coal was the basis of the industrial economy Christianity dominated the world and Islam was more or less in a vegetative state. This is a consequence of the fact that there are virtually no coal reserves in the Islamic world. When oil became the basis of the economy Islam resurged. What will happen when oil declines? We can expect a similar religious transformation.

__________________
1977 300d 70k--sold 08
1985 300TD 185k+
1984 307d 126k--sold 8/03
1985 409d 65k--sold 06
1984 300SD 315k--daughter's car
1979 300SD 122k--sold 2/11
1999 Fuso FG Expedition Camper
1993 GMC Sierra 6.5 TD 4x4
1982 Bluebird Wanderlodge CAT 3208--Sold 2/13

See Mr. Kuntslers website for a peimistic view of the futrue with regards to peak pil.

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