First, Gilly I hope I am not stepping outside of the rules with this thread. This shouldn't turn into a political thread.

Now I was watching an intersting meeting on Cspan the other day. It was a Senate defence comittee meeting if I remember correctly. But the Comander of the Pacific fleet was their, and Admiral William .... (I don't remember his last name.) Their was also 4 star General their. Now the topic of China came up and this makes me nervious. In the past few years China has been expanding their military well beyond what would be needed for defense. Their budget was increased 13% this year. We are not the only country to notice this and be worried Japan, South Korea, and a few other smaller countrys are worried. Now why is China doing this? The Russians are also working with them to develope advanced weapons. Could we see a Russian, China treaty in a few years? Will China exact revenge on Japan? One thing China does want back is Taiwan. This could be a very dangerious issue, we as a nation need to decide if we are willing to get into a major war over Taiwan. Because in the future China will probably demand the return of the island.

So will WW3 break down as China, N Korea, Russia vs US, Britian, Japan?

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If you think about it for a minute, there is not much anyone can realistically do to China if they decide tomorrow that they are going to take back Taiwan by force.

It's one thing to go and kick the crap out of a bunch of poorly trained and equipped Iraqis. Now imagine fighting 1 million very well equipped Chinese. We would be in deep $hit with that situation in a big hurry.

Russia and China fought an often bloody border war for 20 years to no good end. The USSR (Russia) supported N Vietnam partly as a way of udnermining the Chinese and provided N Vietnam with military support during the war between Vietnam and China in which Chinese casualties were extremely high. China and Russia have nothing in common. Some Russians (especially the Russian Orthodox) still resent the Chinese domination of Russia for most of the middle ages. In other words the history between Russia and China is violent and long on mistrust. Since Peter the Great, Russia has chosen intentionally to tie its future to teh west, not the east. It just ain't a viable alliance, except of convenience--ie they play us with feigned raproachments between them.

If war breaks out it will be over Taiwan. China would have to mount a huge amphibious assault over a serious bit of ocean. Taiwan would eventually be crushed but it would be a frightful loss of life on both sides. The USA would probably provide Taiwan with naval protection of some sort, but I doubt the USA would rpovide ground forces. There are so many, many people in China.

Most of the world, the U.S. included, does not recognize Taiwan as an autonomous nation. More a temporary situation than a permanent State. As China modernizes and integrates with the rest of the world reunification with Taiwan is as inevitable as it was with Hong Kong.

China will continue to grow more powerful economically and thus militarily. If they are to regain control of Taiwan in the same “peaceful” way they assumed power in Hong Kong they will have to have a more western approach to government. Those people in Taiwan are used to controlling their own destiny and feel about communism in China as Florida’s Cubans feel about Castro.

I think it is a good question “What does China want beyond Taiwan?”
Is Middle Eastern oil in their plans for growth? It has been suggested they have already had military dealings with Iran.
They are not technologically ready to go adventuring around the globe. But how much longer will it be before Japans biggest markets and interests are no longer U.S. or European or has that time already come?

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-Marty

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(Now waiting under a bridge in order to become one)

Reading your M103 duty cycle:
http://www.peachparts.com/shopforum/showpost.php?p=831799&postcount=13
http://www.peachparts.com/shopforum/showpost.php?p=831807&postcount=14

China could do more damage to the US by dumping its holdings of US Dollars and causing a huge ripple effect on the world economy . . . more than it could ever achieve with just its current arsenal.

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/index.html

China Nuclear Forces Guide

http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/1627.asp

Russia and China become part of strategic alliance � Putin now looks at BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa)

When I was a high school student in the late 50s, the UN held a series of meetings and seminars on the West Coast to point out the growing importance of Asia. Our high school government class had a field trip to one of these events, and I clearly recall a Chinese politician state words to the effect that the west had had its turn, and now was time to get out of China's way or be run over, by military confrontation if necessary.

I have seen other stories in respected publications pointing out the incredible volume of China's industrial and military espionage activities (Wilson Quarterly), Economic manipulation of their currency to make sure the world's markets favor their goods, exen despit having treaties precluding these activities (Economist, Financial Times), etc. Then a few years ago I read the following article in Asia Times:

CHINA FOR REAL: A declaration of 'no limits' war By Bradley Martin Asia Times Online In a book that's sending chills down the spines of even some of their fellow Chinese, two up-and-coming air force officers argue that the best way for a weaker country like China to defeat the U.S. superpower is to throw away the gentlemanly rules of warfare. The two advise embracing underhanded tactics such as computer hacking and terrorism - including what they term "financial terrorism," modeled on George Soros's lucrative assault on the British pound. Their premise - chilling enough in itself - is that war is bound to come sooner or later. As populous China strengthens, it will consume even more of the world's resources than the United States does. When someone's pie grows bigger, someone else's has to shrink, the officers say matter-of-factly, so there will have to be a war. In preparing for war, senior colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui say in "No-Limit Warfare" (published by the military), China should remember its enormous casualties in the Korean War and avoid going head to head on the battlefield. Terrorism is more "humane," because it achieves the same end with far fewer casualties. The U.S., as shown most recently in the Kosovo war, fears casualties. Thus it uses huge amounts of money to produce absurdly expensive technology, with which victory can be won even as casualties are minimized. It would be a sucker's game for China or any other country to try to compete on American terms, the officers argue. Better to take advantage of the fact that the U.S., as the established power, has made rules that it must observe itself. China or another weaker country can plan to throw away the rules and fight dirty, with reasonable confidence that the U.S. would not do so first. "All strong countries make rules, while all rising ones break them and exploit loopholes," Qiao told a frankly horrified interviewer for Qingnian Bao, a Beijing daily newspaper sponsored by the China Youth League. "Barbarians always rise by breaking the rules of civilized and developed countries, which is what human history is all about." Qiao argued that Iraq's Saddam Hussein and Yugoslavia's Milosevich had been mistaken not to use hostages as human shields to deter bombing, instead of playing by the rules. "No-limit" warfare would combine the full gamut of tactics, including biochemical, diplomatic, trade, psychological, resource, urban guerrilla and atomic warfare. And obviously others have thought of something like it before. What's catchy about Qiao and Wang's theory is that they bring in such up-to-the-minute tactics as hacking and financial terrorism. Part of the beauty of hacking, as they see it, is that its most skilled practitioners often are citizens of weaker countries - some of the worst havoc having been inflicted recently by a Taiwanese. As for financial terrorism, the two military thinkers credit or blame Soros for the Asian financial crisis. China isn't rich as nations go, they note - but why couldn't it come up with $100 billion to go after an unprepared rival's financial system? The book is having impact. One general is quoted as calling it "the only book that I have read straight through in many years."

Asia Times also published an article about that time regarding the growing influence of organized crime in making political decisions, even about terrorism and WMD:

Inside the PRC, organized crime appears to be growing, and the PCN (Politico-Criminal Nexus) is also expanding. In some regions there is considerable Chinese public acknowledgement of these developments. (9) In others, the sources are murkier. However, it appears that inside mainland China, the PCN gives power to particular coalitions who can use money and violence to maneuver against other groupings and undermine decisions about the infrastructure of society.

The activities of the PCNs on the borders of China can also affect the infrastructure inside the PRC. For example, drug trafficking from Southeast Asia appears to be contributing to the spread of AIDS inside China as well as increased addiction levels. These internal effects may be strengthening political-criminal coalitions inside major areas of the PRC. More powerful PCNs in China facilitate PCNs in other parts of the world through its involvement in intellectual property violations, piracy in the South China Sea, and the manufacture of precursor chemicals. All of the foregoing are becoming problems. China has lengthy borders, which are difficult to control, and its economy is now developing at a rapid rate, offering attractive opportunities for exploitation, both legitimate and illegitimate.

The activities of PCNs become particularly important in certain circumstances. For example, in regions that possess weapons of mass destruction (WMD), PCNs can facilitate the export of WMD or their components and also facilitate the import of components of WMD into their own or other states. This could be a threat in Russia and perhaps China. (10)


This is further complicated by the ownership of major blocks of industry by the PRC military, which uses their profits for modernization programs.

Finally, consider that China has an energy shortage, and is activly purchasing long term oil contracts in every corner of the globe at inflated prices to insure that their economic and political aims are met. They are also diverting huge amounts of dollars to buying votes from relatively minor countries to obtain 'Free Market Economy' status, among other goals.

India isn't building MISSILE submarines and ICBMs because they fear a confrontation with the US - it is more likely to be an Indian confrontation with China in the long run, IMHO.

__________________
John

2003 Firemist Red/grey leather SL 500
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Russia may dislike China but Russia is broke and needs money. Chine has money but lacks the talent and technoligy to develope advanced weapons. Russia is making new advanced Mig's, TU's, and missle systems and is selling them to China. Not to mention tanks and guns. Luckly our military did train for almost 50 years to fight the Russians so fighting the Chinese shouldn't be to big of a leap. As long as we control the sea we are pretty safe; if we lose that it is over. I think in the next 50 years China will go to war with someone, I just hope we don't get dragged into it.

Right on India isn't afraid of us why should they be? A lot of countrys in that area of the world are getting worried about China, we are not the only ones.

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Yep.

What is the strategic value for the US in continuing to defend Taiwan? Other than Taiwan, I don't see China as rattling its sabres much for military expansionism and imperial conquest, unlike the current US regime.

That may well be WW4, given that a good arguement can be made for calling the current state of islamo-facism vs everyone else "WW3".

That being said, I believe that China is leveraging it's growing industrial and technological might and waiting on the sidelines as it's mutual enemies - the US and the forces of militant Islam - fight and weaken each other.

At some point we will be stretched too thin, our military resources drawn down, and perhaps a weakening resolve at home. Such would be a good time for China to move in any direction it wants, without risking significant confrontation with US. Can you say "Taiwan"?

Beyond that, and further into the future, who knows... About a hundred years ago the US was not a significant world power. What will be the situation a hundred years from now?

One thing's for certain - China will play a bigger and bigger role as time marches on.

- Patrick

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Who would trade with China after this event?

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...Tracy

'00 ML320 "Casper"
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Tibet, Mongolia, and Vietnam might disagree. The Maoist insurgents in the Himalayan countries look to China for financial and military support. Taiwan is a democracy and China is a communist dictatorship. Aside from those minor features, good point.

H202,,, You're joking right? US Imperialism? Sounds like a college freshman ready to save the world from pollution....


China knows that if the US is willing to defend Tawain, they have everything to lose economically. THey are just now getting on their feet economically, and its all due to the US. If the US put an economic and oil embargo on China right now, they would go down the tubes, and they know it.

Who do you think has been driving up oil prices the last two years? China,

Russia DOES NOT want to see China become a dominant threat, countries that look for alliances do not want neighboring countries to be as strong as they are

Hitler aligned with a strong Japan because they had different geographies they wanted to dominant, Europe vs. the Pacific

Hitler wasnt concerned with Mussolini cuz he knew if he took control of Europe, Italy was NOT strong enough to take him on,

Russia DOES NOT want to have to battle with China over Japan, you realize Japan and Russia have been fighting for centuries also

Virtually all the news we get is psuedo bull****t, you have to figure out what they are really discussing and thinking behind the scenes, everything on the tv and internet, etc, is just for show.

If the Middle east progression towards democracy continues, then all the worlds oil fields will be out of the reach of a communist China if it becomes too aggresive. NO OIL< NO WAR MACHINE>

I think we as a nation need to get our cards in order though. If I were in charge I would start a policy to pay down the national debt to almost nothing and strengthen our borders. Then I would go through the military and modernize it and expand some areas slightly. This one is tricky because an arms race is in no ones interest. I woud also shift the delpoyment of our troops and forces around the globe. Ie all forces in Europe will be pulled out and sent to the West coast or Japan. The Atlantic fleet would be shrunk and ships would be sent to the Pacific. We really don't need much of an Atlantic fleet anymore the British can control that ocean. A few light ships and subs and maybe one carrier battle group at most should be more then enough. I would also put plans into affect to seize the Panama canal back if we ever do go to war. The ships built in VA will need it. The last thing I would do is to get as many forces out of the mid east as possible. But we still need a presence their.

We as a nation need to be ready, we can't be caught with out pants down for a third time.

__________________
1999 SL500
1969 280SE
2023 Ram 1500
2007 Tiara 3200