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  #1  
Old 01-14-2007, 01:46 AM
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No Nukes in Iran?

'No proof' of Iran nuclear arms
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/6167304.stm

The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has not found conclusive evidence that Iran is developing nuclear weapons, a US magazine has reported.
Veteran investigative reporter Seymour Hersh, writing in The New Yorker, cites a secret CIA report based on intelligence such as satellite images.
Correspondents say the alleged document appears to challenge Washington's views regarding Iranian nuclear intentions.
The article says the White House was dismissive about the CIA report.
The US and Europe say Iran is pursuing a clandestine nuclear weapons programme - a charge Iran has strongly denied.
'Hostile' response
The CIA assessment, according to unnamed officials quoted in the article, casts doubt on how far Iran has actually progressed to making a nuclear weapon.
"The CIA found no conclusive evidence, as yet, of a secret Iranian nuclear weapons program running parallel to the civilian operations that Iran has declared to the International Atomic Energy Agency," Mr Hersh wrote.
It says the agency based its conclusions on technical intelligence, such as satellite photography and measurements from sensors planted by US and Israeli agents.
The article says: "A current senior intelligence official confirmed the existence of the CIA analysis, and told me that the White House had been hostile to it."
White House spokeswoman Dana Perino criticised the article, calling it an "error-filled" piece in a "series of inaccuracy-riddled articles about the Bush administration".
"The White House is not going to dignify the work of an author who has viciously degraded our troops, and whose articles consistently rely on outright falsehoods to justify his own radical views," she was quoted by AFP news agency as saying.
The BBC's Adam Brookes in Washington says if the New Yorker article is correct, it would suggest that the CIA is being more cautious than the Bush administration in evaluating whether or not Iran is on its way to building a bomb.
And he says, as with Iraq, it suggests political battles to come over how intelligence is used as a basis for American foreign policy.

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  #2  
Old 01-14-2007, 01:49 AM
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Originally Posted by LaRondo View Post
[B][COLOR=black][FONT=Verdana]"The White House is not going to dignify the work of an author who has viciously degraded our troops, and whose articles consistently rely on outright falsehoods to justify his own radical views," she was quoted by AFP news agency as saying.
Hmmm... using falsehoods? Sounds familiar somehow.
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  #3  
Old 01-14-2007, 06:13 AM
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Originally Posted by LaRondo View Post
Veteran investigative reporter Seymour Hersh, writing in The New Yorker, cites a secret CIA report based on intelligence such as satellite images.
How did he get his hands on a secret CIA report? Not much of a secret, is it?
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  #4  
Old 01-14-2007, 08:44 AM
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i just finished woodward's book "plan of attack". in it it is described in detail how the un resoulution was worded.

cheney was very instrumental in its wording.

essentially it stated that sadaam must open his country for inspecitons or face retribution (war). if he stated that yes he had wmd then we were to be justified to invade. if he stated he did not have them then we were justified to invade as he was obviously lying.


kindof a catch 22.

clever, but look where it has gotten us.

tom w
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  #5  
Old 01-14-2007, 08:52 AM
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What bothers me about this whole Iran thing is that we are relying on EXACTLY the same classes and quality of information concerning Iranian atomics as we relied on for Iraq's atomics.

1. The UN and all of the western intelligence agencies agree ...
2. Satellite imagery clearly demonstrates ...
3. Iranian denials are not credible ...

I don't have just an awful lot of faith in that crap.

To me, Iran can be contained by diplomacy and covert ops. The military alternatives are just mind-bogglingly difficult.
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  #6  
Old 01-14-2007, 08:57 AM
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Originally Posted by Botnst View Post
What bothers me about this whole Iran thing is that we are relying on EXACTLY the same classes and quality of information concerning Iranian atomics as we relied on for Iraq's atomics.

1. The UN and all of the western intelligence agencies agree ...
2. Satellite imagery clearly demonstrates ...
3. Iranian denials are not credible ...

I don't have just an awful lot of faith in that crap.

To me, Iran can be contained by diplomacy and covert ops. The military alternatives are just mind-bogglingly difficult.
It depends on if the information you are getting is what you want to hear.
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  #7  
Old 01-14-2007, 09:04 AM
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It depends on if the information you are getting is what you want to hear.
Yep. That's the same pattern of error that led to the invasion of Iraq.

B
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Old 01-14-2007, 09:06 AM
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Originally Posted by t walgamuth View Post
essentially it stated that sadaam must open his country for inspecitons or face retribution (war). if he stated that yes he had wmd then we were to be justified to invade. if he stated he did not have them then we were justified to invade as he was obviously lying.


kindof a catch 22.
Isn't there an escape clause in there somewhere in the thing where if he gave unfettered access to the inspectors instead of playing shell games, life would be good?
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Old 01-14-2007, 09:14 AM
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Iran knows that a US invasion won't be tolerated again by US citizens without absolute proof - it's a good position for Iran. Expect more doubts in the press in the future.
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  #10  
Old 01-14-2007, 09:17 AM
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Yep. That's the same pattern of error that led to the invasion of Iraq.

B
In fear of another WMD argument I will gag myself.
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  #11  
Old 01-14-2007, 09:27 AM
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Iran knows that a US invasion won't be tolerated again by US citizens without absolute proof - it's a good position for Iran. Expect more doubts in the press in the future.
True. In any case, Iran has not waged war for a long time so it would be harder to justify it in any case. However, if Israel feels threatened, it might respond in kind like it has done in the past and it wouldn't be our airplanes, would it? As I have said before, Israel does have it's uses. IIRC, they are already doing training for a mission of that nature. Good thing we have lent it a hand from time to time, isn't it?
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Old 01-14-2007, 01:01 PM
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Right now, the diplomatic community is queing up for a get-together of Iran and the US to talk about...what else? Israel.

Get Israel out of the way (tie their hands up somehow, like not replacing jet parts and such...), then maybe Iran "will" settle down.

Yah, like that's money you can take to the bank (Or oil to stick in your tank.)

Sounds like the US is getting ready to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

And all because we have a new Congress that wants everyone to just get along and play nice.

Ain't happenin' in that part of the world.

And I believe, (MO) that it's only going to get MUCH WORSE...

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Old 01-14-2007, 01:07 PM
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Originally Posted by mgburg View Post
Right now, the diplomatic community is queing up for a get-together of Iran and the US to talk about...what else? Israel.

Get Israel out of the way (tie their hands up somehow, like not replacing jet parts and such...), then maybe Iran "will" settle down.
OK. Lets say you do get Israel to settle down that way. What if Iran doesn't do what it says? Then you have to deal with Iran with NO buffer. So, if we want to ditch Israel, are you sure you won't need them in the future? If we could be more sure of the muslims than Israel, I'd say drop Israel like a hot potato.
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  #14  
Old 01-14-2007, 01:34 PM
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Originally Posted by aklim View Post
Isn't there an escape clause in there somewhere in the thing where if he gave unfettered access to the inspectors instead of playing shell games, life would be good?

well i think he eventually did but w and cheney just said..." he is obviously moving them around so there fore we must invade". (that is a paraphrase).

tom w
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  #15  
Old 01-14-2007, 01:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mgburg View Post
Right now, the diplomatic community is queing up for a get-together of Iran and the US to talk about...what else? Israel.

Get Israel out of the way (tie their hands up somehow, like not replacing jet parts and such...), then maybe Iran "will" settle down.

Yah, like that's money you can take to the bank (Or oil to stick in your tank.)

Sounds like the US is getting ready to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

And all because we have a new Congress that wants everyone to just get along and play nice.

Ain't happenin' in that part of the world.

And I believe, (MO) that it's only going to get MUCH WORSE...

i wouldn't bet on the us ditching isreal!

won't happen.

tom w

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