Book Recommendation: The Black Swan
 

A great read. Little math involved but a strong critique on how the public views chance. The title, of course, is taken from the famous epistemological example about all swans being white. All swans are white, we know this be observation. Therefore by inductive reasoning, the next swan we'll see is going to be white. :)

I've seen black swans. There goes that theory.

Yes
 

Right now! I don't see any black swans, so they don't exist. I can think about them, so they exist in my mind, but that's not reality.