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  #1  
Old 08-16-2007, 09:57 AM
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Below 12,000 Sooner or Later?

When do you predict it will drop below 12,000?

(yeah, the DOW in case you couldn't figure it out)

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  #2  
Old 08-16-2007, 10:10 AM
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Oh God, don't start that! It's gone down enough already. This feels like one step forward, two steps back.

I've weathered at least three big corrections in the stock market so far (since I have had much of a stake in it personally). It doesn't get any less harrowing and I don't seem to become any more astute as far as when to hold and when to fold.
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  #3  
Old 08-16-2007, 10:18 AM
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SSW is a friggin trip. The announce another 4.5 @ 33.5 the stock is @ 27.86 and still dropping. The numbers support the the 33.5 (easily) -- and they have a rockin dividend. So even if they drop the div (to compensate for the additional shares) -- you still have a 27.86/33.5 growth.

I mean, their segment is red-hot -- and getting hotter as our economy tanks.

This market is unreal.

ACAS is another darling that has turned sour... Either we're headed for something friggin' horrid or it will swing a bit lower and then rebound higher than it was.

All I know is we need a new leader for our nation... fiscally we're a mess, and the fed is even more a mess...
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Old 08-16-2007, 10:24 AM
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Are you an investor or do you think your a stock picker/trader. The five year chart does'nt look to bad to me.
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  #5  
Old 08-16-2007, 10:28 AM
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Glass half empty or full? There are some real bargins out their.
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  #6  
Old 08-16-2007, 10:37 AM
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At this rate it could be tomorrow or early next week! But, it's only a slice of the total market. And long-term, the market looks alright.
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  #7  
Old 08-16-2007, 10:40 AM
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Yes. Many bargains. I'll agree to that.

As far as the 5 year chart... I disagree. The minute I see a chart like that I look at the WHOLE chart. Take a look at the middle two years. 04 and 05. Basically flat.

Wise long positions are always going to perform well. The problem is the definition of "long" seems to be getting looooonger!

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  #8  
Old 08-16-2007, 10:43 AM
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If there are a lot of bargains, then that means the market is over reacting in those instances. If that's the case it will come back. The problem is when the overall stock market becomes over-priced like it did in 1999.

As long as you invest in good management, in good industries, you'll be fine in the longrun.
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  #9  
Old 08-16-2007, 10:49 AM
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One of my portfolio's has really taken a dump in the last 30 days but even with that said I still bought another position today.
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  #10  
Old 08-16-2007, 11:57 AM
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Who would ahve thought that the unwinding of the specualtive excesses in the sub prime lending markets, tighter credit, and a housing slump could all collude to cause ripples thruout the capital markets.

With the yen up and DOW down, the hedge funds are still unwinding their yen carry trade. Look out. When the hedgies head for the exits, bad things happen fast! And I do believe this is the fast money crowd covering their arses to some extent.

I'm heartened to see you individual investors keep the faith. If we lose it, a bear will ensue. However, one of yopu folks pull a DJIA chart and superimpose the 30, 100 and 200 day MA on it. Tell me what you see?
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  #11  
Old 08-16-2007, 12:50 PM
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My View

Stock Market should hit sub-12,000 by this time next week. At which point I believe it will probably *begin* leveling off; i.e.: smaller 'dumps' day-to-day. When the market reaches the 11,999 mark, people are going to start waking up and saying, “Hey, there’s good bargains out there!”

Where's the 'bottom'? Dunno - if I did, I wouldn't be living in Round Rock, TX. What I do know is that the market will bottom at some point AND it will rise again. Like a roller coaster, you can't get off so hang on for the ride. The more you panic - sell/buy/speculate/sell/buy/contemplate/sell/buy/agitate - the worst your life is gonna be. And yes, I own stock – lots – my retirement is closely tied to it - and I'm only 52. So the market has significant interest to me... but I refuse to allow it to consume me.

If people would quite going into absolute, unadulterated panic over the market, 'corrections' would not be as dramatic as they are. Look at the daily ride of the market and compare it to the hysterical ‘news releases’, rumors, legends, folklore and other crap that permeates our up-to-the-second, electronic, digitized society. You'll see an amazing correlation.

Think logically, invest logically and *know* that market corrections, for whatever reasons, will occur. And stop with the emotional flotsam. I worry more about my Mercedes, than I do the market. The market will hear itself, my MB will not.

(Sorry. Guess I got a little tall on the soapbox, there.)
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  #12  
Old 08-16-2007, 12:53 PM
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The only people who lose now are the ones who have to sell.
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  #13  
Old 08-16-2007, 01:08 PM
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Get Shorty.
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  #14  
Old 08-16-2007, 01:16 PM
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after Mattel anounces the next toy re-call.
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  #15  
Old 08-16-2007, 05:32 PM
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Buy now, avoid the rush.

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