Here's a private forecaster's discussion concerning a weather system that is now over south Florida. I'v ebeen following this guy's website for a number of years and found him pretty reliable for systems in the Gulf of Mexico.
http://www.crownweather.com/tropdisc.html
Bot

Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Wednesday, September 19, 2007 455 am EDT
Early morning satellite imagery indicated that low pressure was located right on top of Fort Lauderdale, Florida. This system has not become any better organized overnight due to 25 knots of wind shear over the system. This system is forecast to cross south Florida today and is forecast to move off of the southwest coast of Florida near Fort Myers by early tonight. Once this system crosses south Florida, all of the computer forecast guidance continues to indicate that development and intensification will occur as this system moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The exact track of this storm is relatively uncertain and will likely remain this way until we have a good low level circulation to track. It seems though, however, that the global and track model guidance are indicating that the Texas and Louisiana coasts, roughly from Houston to New Orleans, are well within the model guidance envelope. Before we look at the various model guidance, let's take a look at the overall expected weather pattern:
A strong ridge of high pressure is setting up over the eastern half of the U.S., and is expected to remain anchored in place for at least the next week to ten days. This type of steering favors a storm motion to the west. However, the steering pattern will be complicated by the presence of a upper-level low pressure system that will move to the southwest over the Gulf of Mexico. This upper-level low will gradually weaken with time. The model differences described below stem from their handling of the strength and track of this upper level low pressure system.

Now, let's take a look at what the various models are saying this morning:
The GFS model forecasts that this storm will make landfall in southeastern Louisiana on Saturday morning.

The NOGAPS model forecasts that this storm will make landfall near Port O'Connor, Texas on Sunday morning.

The UKMET model forecasts that this storm will make landfall in southeastern Louisiana on Saturday evening.
The European model is holding steadfast and is still forecasting a Texas landfall near forecasts that this storm will make landfall near Port O'Connor, Texas on Saturday night or Sunday morning.

The track model guidance envelope are centered on a Louisiana landfall. On the left hand side of the model envelope are the HWRF and GFDL models which forecasts a landfall somewhere between Morgan City and Vermilion Bay, Louisiana on Saturday morning. On the right hand side of the envelope is the BAMS and BAMD models which forecast a landfall along the Mississippi coastline early Saturday morning.

As for forecast intensity, the SHIPS model forecasts this system to be a 70 to 80 mph hurricane at the time of landfall, while the LGEM model forecasts this system to be a 67 mph tropical storm at the time of landfall. Finally, the GFDL model forecasts that this system will be a 60 to 70 mph tropical storm at the time of landfall.

Ok, here are my thoughts: Once this system gets into the Gulf of Mexico tonight, it will have about a 60 to 72 hour window to intensify. The big question is still how much shear will this system encounter? The latest guidance continues to indicates that the shear could be fairly low in the Gulf of Mexico leading to intensification over that entire 60 to 72 hour time period. It should be noted that the SHIPS model is forecasting shear values of 10 knots or less from late tonight through the time of landfall and this is something that will have to be watched for very closely.

As for a track and potential landfall: Some notes on model tracks before I give you my thoughts, it appears that the GFDL model's track is too far north because it immediately tracks this system northward to Cape Canaveral and then to the west, therefore, I think the GFDL model's track is about 150 miles too far north, therefore, if we shift it's track 150 miles to the west, it would bring the storm onshore on the upper Texas coast between Houston and Sabine Pass late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. The GFS model has been shifting back and forth between a landfall in southeast Louisiana and a landfall on the upper Texas coast, so I question this model's credibility. The European model has been targeting the Texas coast for several days now and it has not shifted all that much in its forecast track, therefore, I am leaning towards that type of a track.

Therefore, for now, I am going to go with a track somewhere between the Consensus model, the modified GFDL model and the European model and I think this system will come ashore somewhere between Galveston, Texas and Vermilion Parish, Louisiana sometime between Saturday afternoon and midday Sunday. As for landfall intensity, for now I think this system will come ashore as a 85 to 100 mph hurricane. Although, as I have already mentioned the trend in the models is that there will be less shear and a more favorable environment for development, therefore landfall intensity at this point is extremely uncertain.

Bottom line is that all residents on the US Gulf Coast from Texas to Alabama should pay very careful attention to the progress of this system. The exact track and intensity of the storm is uncertain and many things can change over the next few days. Obviously, this is a system that I am going to keep a very close eye on and I will be sure to keep you all updated.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 6 am EDT Thursday morning.

Erk. Better go gas up the Buick in case I have to make a mad dash.

Bot, since I'm the nominal safety officer here in my department, I've passed your link on to the faculty and students. Crown seems like a good source.
.

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The Cajun Navy Reserve Corps is on yellow alert.

And so is the air wing. I love this stuff!

Warm up the engines on the school busses!!

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TRUMP .......... WHITEHOUSE
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Model outputs.

Attached Thumbnails

 

I'm going to guess.
I guess that the path will follow the BAMD & LGEM models.
I will also guess, that I will find out tomorrow, how good my guess was.

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