http://www.vnunet.com/vnunet/news/2208058/china-lead-world-technology

The research was conducted for the NSF by the Georgia Institute of Technology. The researchers tracked a number of key indicators in a broad range of fields including scientific and engineering training, research, and manufacturing.

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99 Gurkha with OM616 IDI turbo

2015 Gurkha with OM616 DI turbo

2014 Rexton W with OM612 VGT

You know, Americans don't like to hear that, right ...?

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Its a study done by a US university.

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99 Gurkha with OM616 IDI turbo

2015 Gurkha with OM616 DI turbo

2014 Rexton W with OM612 VGT

They still don't like to hear it.

Keeping in mind the exponential growth rate of the denial factor mixed with an uncanny addiction to infantility ...

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Well its a study done by a reputed institution, I am sure China's neighbor India doesn't like to hear this either.

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99 Gurkha with OM616 IDI turbo

2015 Gurkha with OM616 DI turbo

2014 Rexton W with OM612 VGT

2008-01-25 | In regards to our “global economy”, one is better off reading Dostoevsky’s “The Gambler” and saying to himself, “at the present moment I must repair to the roulette-table”, than listening to George Bush deluding himself about the fact that “while there is some uncertainty, the financial markets are strong and solid.” The truth is, our global markets have become a “lame duck” and all we can do is wait for the next disaster to shake the corrupt foundation on which things have been run.

As Hugues Rialan, managing director in charge of discretionary asset management at Robeco France puts it, "if they [financial institutions] had a much more transparent communication, we would not have all the bombshells, or rumors of bombshells, that we're having today, with all the negative implications for the market."

The fact remains that people are reluctant to utter the word “depression”, and therefore all we are left with are the words of all those experts who created the mess in the first place. Just before ending 2007, York professor Peter Spencer, chief economist for the ITEM Club, warned us: “I don't think the central banks are going to make a major policy error, but if they do, this could make 1929 look like a walk in the park." What has unraveled before our eyes since then, is a grim picture which threatens the very way in which we think of our “wonderful democratic societies” and their “solid financial structures”.

We started 2008 with a series of announcements which should have shaken even the most faithful of believers in the goodness of our political and financial institutions. We recovered from our new year celebrations with legendary Wall Street guru and chief investment strategist of Pequot Capital Management, Byron Wien, telling us he expected oil to move between $80 and $115 a barrel, corn to rise to $6 a bushel, and gold to reach $1,000 an ounce. By the 7th of January, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch’s chief North American economist, was informing us that “according to our analysis, this [recession] isn't even a forecast any more but is a present day reality."

Then the bad news kept rolling in, Goldman Sachs predicted that Japan was in danger of following the US into recession, later in 2008 and The Bank of Japan announced that annual growth in bank loans was the slowest in nearly two years. Rolls Royce followed, informing us that 2,300 jobs would be cut as part of a cost reduction program.

By January 14th, recruitment companies Michael Page and Hays, were reporting hiring freezes in the City of London, and John Philpott, economist at the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, was saying; "We expect this year to be the worst for job creation in a decade.” One day later, Goldman Sachs joined Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch in estimating that the US “may already be in a recession”, and Gerard Lyons ,chief economist for Standard Chartered bank, followed by telling us “the US economy in our view is heading into a recession.”

On January 20th, Merrill Lynch published its worst quarter since its foundation almost 100 years ago, with a loss of $9.8 billion, in the last three months of 2007. Citigroup followed suit, reporting a 40% cut in its dividend and an $18 billion write-down in its quarterly results. EMI (the world’s leading independent music company) used that day to warn it would cut one in three jobs.

By January 21st, Black Monday was upon us, the Spanish stock market registered its worst fall since 1987 with a drop of 7.54 percent, the Bombay stock exchange slid 7.41 percent, as brokers were unable to pay stock exchanges the money which they owed on the shares they had bought. Other stockmarkets were also down: Paris 5.48 percent, Frankfurt 7.16 percent, Milan 5.17 percent, the Swiss bourse 5.26 percent, Toronto 4.75 percent, Sao Paolo 6.6 percent, Buenos Aires 6.27 percent, Mexico 5.35 percent, Santiago 5.03 percent, Lima 8.35 percent, Tokyo 3.86 percent, Shanghai 5.14 percent, Hong Kong 5.49 percent and Seoul 2.95 percent.

Pedro Solbes, Spanish minister of economy and finance told us, "there is no reason to exaggerate", Europe "is reasonably prepared" for a slowdown. He obviously forgot to acknowledge the fact that over 40,000 estate agents closed their doors in Spain in 2007.
Euro group president Jean-Claude Juncker commented: “We should not over-react to the events on the stock exchanges today”, although the economic and financial climate is “highly volatile and uncertain”.

That same day, S&P acknowledged that "the US housing market slump may last far longer than previously expected", and University of Maryland economist, Carmen Reinhart and Harvard University economist, Kenneth Rogoff informed us that “the current crisis appears on track to be at least as bad as the five most catastrophic financial crises to hit industrialized countries since World War II.” Bank of America added: “The perfect storm took time to brew, but it hit hard and fast - much harder and faster than we expected.”

Discouraging news followed. Rumors came that Societe Generale which had repeatedly stated it didn’t have exposure to the troubled subprime mortgage market, could possibly unveil write-downs. Then Commerzbank’s chief executive acknowledged further write-downs on the value of its subprime linked investments and rumors surfaced that Bank of China may become the latest banking casualty from the collapse of America's sub-prime mortgage market. According to the Financial Times, in a Chinese stock market crash “since most publicly listed companies are state-owned… Large-scale public protest is a possibility.”

By January 22nd, billionaire investor George Soros emphasized that the United States was facing a possible recession and that the world was eying the worst financial crisis since World War II. Then Paul Sheard, global chief economist at Lehman Brothers, warned: "at the moment we are seeing the global imbalances unwind -- so far it has been orderly, but there are signs that it could become a little more disorderly."

The truth remains that The Federal Home Loan Bank system has injected $750bn. into mortgage banks since the beginning of the crunch, $210bn in November alone. In the past 10 days, Citigroup has cut 4,200 positions after its biggest quarterly loss. Fourth-quarter earnings of Bank of America Corp. and Wachovia Corp., second and fourth largest U.S. banks, have plummeted after more than $6 billion of combined mortgage related writedowns. Germany’s investor confidence has dropped to its lowest since 1992 and the first signs have emerged that China's economy may be slowing.

Worse still, this turbulence is far from over. According to former US treasury secretary Lawrence Summers, "there is the possibility, not yet at all the probability, that a recession could prove long and severe." From Bernard Connolly’s perspective, global strategist at Banque AIG, "the next really big shock to financial markets is likely to be the risk of collapse in the EMU [European Economic and Monetary Union] credit bubble: the private sector credit consequences are likely to be catastrophic.”

So although Josef Ackermann, chief executive of Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG says; "I hope that we don't swing to… an irrational depression", I am inclined to believe, that rational thought will be the detonator of an acknowledged depression. The sooner the better, the more we hide things under the carpet, the more our global economy will look like a scaled-up version of the Enron scandal. I tend to agree with Klaus Schwab, the World Economic Forum's founder and chairman, when he states; "We have to pay for the sins of the past." The question I ask, is who will end up paying the price? It seems clear to me as this poker game unravels, that the true “lame duck” is going to be the taxpayer

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The Chinese already leads the world in "reverse-engineering."

True. They don't actually create much of anything. That is one of their limiting factors.

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Palangi

2004 C240 Wagon 203.261 Baby Benz
2008 ML320 CDI Highway Cruiser
2006 Toyota Prius, Saving the Planet @ 48 mpg
2000 F-150, Destroying the Planet @ 20 mpg



TRUMP .......... WHITEHOUSE
HILLARY .........JAILHOUSE
BERNIE .......... NUTHOUSE
0BAMA .......... OUTHOUSE

You see now, how much they don't want to hear it?
To redicule and/or belittle ... just 2 of the many signs, displaying denial.

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Anybody ever see or hear of an accurate technology prediction?

Here are what experts have said in the past. Any reason to believe predictions are any better now?

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson (1874-1956), Chairman of IBM, 1943
"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?" -- H. M. Warner (1881-1958), founder of Warner Brothers, in 1927
"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible." -- Lord Kelvin, President, Royal Society, 1895
"Everything that can be invented has been invented." -- Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899
"Inventions reached their limit long ago, and I see no hope for further development." -- Julius Frontinus, 1st century A.D.
"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." -- Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977
"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." -- Western Union internal memo, 1876.
""The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?" -- David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for investment in the radio in the 1920s.
"The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order to earn better than a 'C,' the idea must be feasible." -- A Yale University management professor in response to Fred Smith's paper proposing reliable overnight delivery service. (Smith went on to found Federal Express Corp.)
"I'm just glad it'll be Clark Gable who's falling on his face and not Gary Cooper." -- Gary Cooper on his decision not to take the leading role in "Gone With The Wind."
"A cookie store is a bad idea. Besides, the market research reports say America likes crispy cookies, not soft and chewy cookies like you make." -- Response to Debbi Fields' idea of starting Mrs. Fields' Cookies.
"Space travel is bunk." -- Sir Harold Spencer Jones, Astronomer Royal of Britain, 1957, two weeks before the launch of Sputnik
"All attempts at artificial aviation are not only dangerous to life but doomed to failure from an engineering standpoint." -- editor of 'The Times' of London, 1905
"640K ought to be enough for anybody." -- Bill Gates (1955-), in 1981
"Louis Pasteur's theory of germs is ridiculous fiction". -- Pierre Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872
"We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." -- Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962
"Drill for oil? You mean drill into the ground to try and find oil? You're crazy." -- Drillers who Edwin L. Drake tried to enlist to his project to drill for oil in 1859.
"I confess that in 1901, I said to my brother Orville that man would not fly for fifty years . . . Ever since, I have distrusted myself and avoided all predictions." -- Wilbur Wright, 1908
"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value." -- Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre
"A bird is an instrument working according to mathematical law, which instrument it is within the capacity of man to reproduce with all its movements." -- Leonardo da Vinci, 'Treatise on the Flight of Birds,' 1505
"The abdomen, the chest, and the brain will forever be shut from the intrusion of the wise and humane surgeon". -- Sir John Eric Ericksen, British surgeon, appointed Surgeon- Extraordinary to Queen Victoria 1873
"You would make a ship sail against the winds and currents by lighting a bonfire under her deck...I have no time for such nonsense." -- Napoleon, commenting on Fulton's Steamship
"Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons." -- Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentless march of science, 1949
"Man will never reach the moon regardless of all future scientific advances." -- Dr. Lee De Forest, inventor of the Audion tube and a father of radio, 25 February, 1967.
"The aeroplane will never fly." -- Lord Haldane, Minister of War, Britain, 1907
"I suppose we shall soon travel by air-vessels; make air instead of sea voyages; and at length find our way to the moon, in spite of the want of atmosphere." -- Lord Byron, 1882
"A certain Liquor which they call Coffee...which will soon intoxicate the brain." -- G. W. Parry (1601)
"Within the next few decades, autos will have folding wings that can be spread when on a straight stretch of road so that the machine can take to the air." -- Eddie Rickenbacker, 'Popular Science,' July 1924
"But what ... is it good for?" -- Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip.

We don't know the context of all these quotes. I googled the first one and if Watson even said it, then it was accurate at the time.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_J._Watson
Famous misquote

Although Watson is well known for his alleged 1943 statement: "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers," there is no evidence he ever made it. The author Kevin Maney tried to find the origin of the quote, but has been unable to locate any speeches or documents of Watson's that contain this, nor are the words present in any contemporary articles about IBM. The earliest known citation is from 1986 on Usenet in the signature of a poster from Convex Computer Corporation as "I think there is a world market for about five computers" — Remark attributed to Thomas J. Watson (Chairman of the Board of International Business Machines), 1943. Another early article source (May 15, 1985) is a column by Neil Morgan, a San Diego Evening Tribune writer who wrote: 'Forrest Shumway, chairman of The Signal Cos., doesn't make predictions. His role model is Tom Watson, then IBM chairman, who said in 1958: "I think there is a world market for about five computers."'. However one of the very first quotes can be found in a book "The Experts Speak" written by Christopher Cerf and Victor S. Navasky in 1984. But Cerf and Navasky just quote from a book written by Morgan and Langford, "Facts and Fallacies". However all these early quotes are questioned by Eric Weiss, an Editor of the Annals of the History of Computing in ACS letters in 1985.[7]

However, in 1985 the story was discussed on Usenet (in net.misc), without Watson's name being attached. The original discussion has not survived, but an explanation has; it attributes a very similar quote to the Cambridge mathematician Professor Douglas Hartree, around 1951:

I went to see Professor Douglas Hartree, who had built the first differential analyzers in England and had more experience in using these very specialized computers than anyone else. He told me that, in his opinion, all the calculations that would ever be needed in this country could be done on the three digital computers which were then being built — one in Cambridge, one in Teddington, and one in Manchester. No one else, he said, would ever need machines of their own, or would be able to afford to buy them.

(quotation from an article by Lord Bowden; American Scientist vol 58 (1970) pp 43–53); cited on Usenet.[8]

The misquote is itself often misquoted, with fifty computers instead of five.

Interestingly, since the quote is typically used to demonstrate the fallacy of predictions, if Watson did make such as prediction in 1943, then, as Gordon Bell pointed out in his ACM 50 years celebration keynote, it would have held true for some ten years.[9]

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1985 300D Turbo
"Evolution is God's way of giving upgrades" Francis Collins

I am desparately waiting on that piece of machinery ... maybe it will be a Chinese model

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Two of my favorite suppositions people make about the future that involve technology are:

1. We will never create life;
2. We will never create thinking machines.

I believe both are incorrect no matter what definitions are used for "life" and "thinking". I'll bet we have both within 20 years.

B

But if the definition of thinking includes the full range of human emotions and responses, I think we will never see the day.

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1985 380SE Blue/Blue - 230,000 miles
2012 Subaru Forester 5-speed
2005 Toyota Sienna
2004 Chrysler Sebring convertible
1999 Toyota Tacoma

They are amazingly good at that!

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1999 SL500
1969 280SE
2023 Ram 1500
2007 Tiara 3200