Who sees a recession? I don't. - PeachParts Mercedes-Benz Forum

alamostation · #1 02-01-2008, 12:17 PM

I realize that I'm looking at one small part of the elephant, but I just don't see all the gloom and doom that the news networks and politicians are talking about.

Just finished my tax return and 2007 was the third best financial year of my life (I'm 50 something). The two better years were 1985 and 1986 when I was a bankruptcy lawyer during the oil bust. Remember $11 a barrel?

So far this year (in one month!), my self-directed IRA is up 150% using common sense instead of emotion when looking at opportunities. This is in an IRA, so no shorts, no options, just buying long positions in the stocks that panic sellers are dumping. It seems like most investors are listening to the fear-mongers and dumping good stocks at pennies on the dollar only to see them rebound a day or two later. I have just been taking advantage of the pessimistic media.

The company where I work now as as a chemist (I burned out on law) is so buried in orders that I'm looking at 50 to 60 hour weeks until April, even though we just added 10 new workers to a workforce of 60 this week.

Within six miles of my house, there are at least a dozen major construction projects. A new mall, six new subdivisions, two car dealerships, a Lowes, three places where they are leveling at least 20 acres of ground with no signs, and two places that are under construction with indication of what they will be. Costco just finished their new store.

My brother in rural Michigan told me things are going well with his businesses. He would hate to be in Detroit itself, Flint or Pontiac, but suburban Detroit isn't that bad and the rest of the state is OK. In the highest unemployment state, unemployment is still under the national average for the worst part of the 1970's.

Even in places where everyone's house is getting foreclosed, like LA, Las Vegas, Stockton and Miami, people aren't losing their jobs, they are just suffering the consequences of bad purchasing and financing decisions.

Do you see a major loss of jobs in your area? Are we really in a depression?

E150GT · #2 02-01-2008, 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alamostation

I realize that I'm looking at one small part of the elephant, but I just don't see all the gloom and doom that the news networks and politicians are talking about.

Just finished my tax return and 2007 was the third best financial year of my life (I'm 50 something). The two better years were 1985 and 1986 when I was a bankruptcy lawyer during the oil bust. Remember $11 a barrel?

So far this year (in one month!), my self-directed IRA is up 150% using common sense instead of emotion when looking at opportunities. This is in an IRA, so no shorts, no options, just buying long positions in the stocks that panic sellers are dumping. It seems like most investors are listening to the fear-mongers and dumping good stocks at pennies on the dollar only to see them rebound a day or two later. I have just been taking advantage of the pessimistic media.

The company where I work now as as a chemist (I burned out on law) is so buried in orders that I'm looking at 50 to 60 hour weeks until April, even though we just added 10 new workers to a workforce of 60 this week.

Within six miles of my house, there are at least a dozen major construction projects. A new mall, six new subdivisions, two car dealerships, a Lowes, three places where they are leveling at least 20 acres of ground with no signs, and two places that are under construction with indication of what they will be. Costco just finished their new store.

My brother in rural Michigan told me things are going well with his businesses. He would hate to be in Detroit itself, Flint or Pontiac, but suburban Detroit isn't that bad and the rest of the state is OK. In the highest unemployment state, unemployment is still under the national average for the worst part of the 1970's.

Even in places where everyone's house is getting foreclosed, like LA, Las Vegas, Stockton and Miami, people aren't losing their jobs, they are just suffering the consequences of bad purchasing and financing decisions.

Do you see a major loss of jobs in your area? Are we really in a depression?

Whic area is all that construction going on?

Benzadmiral · #3 02-01-2008, 12:42 PM

Hard to tell. Louisiana's been depressed since Reconstruction, and New Orleans since the late '70s.

pj67coll · #4 02-01-2008, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alamostation

they are just suffering the consequences of bad purchasing and financing decisions.
Do you see a major loss of jobs in your area? Are we really in a depression?

The meltdown of the housing industry is undoubtedly due primarily to the stupidity of homeowners. I have pointed this out in other threads in the OD board though there are of course others who like to blame the big bad financiers for pushing those loans in the first place, or the government for not protecting idiots from themselves.

However the fact that a large number of people are damm stupid doesn't mean that the consequencs of that stupidity is not real and will not filter thru to the rest of the economy in time.

Here in Phoenix there are signs of considerable job loss. But this is largely in the home building industry which also means those who are worst hit include a large number of illegals. So wether or not actual American's are as badly affected as the numbers suggest is still open to debate. But of course as there is not a huge amount of any other kind of industry here there likely will be something of a trickle down effect to other sectors of the economy, but how soon and how serverly is difficult to say.

I've watched house prices crash about a hundred thousand dollars in many areas of Phoenix over the last six months.

Seems to me that folks like you who have have discretionary income (from your days as a legal eagle if I read you post right) and are able to invest rather than live paycheck to paycheck will notice econonic difficulty less than regular schmucks living paycheck to paycheck.

Like Yoda says... "difficult to see the future is..." But I do see worrying signs that worse it to come in the near future.

- Peter.

alamostation · #5 02-01-2008, 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by E150GT

Whic area is all that construction going on?

Around I-35 from Thousand Oaks to 3009.

rwthomas1 · #6 02-01-2008, 01:26 PM

I'm in construction and things have slowed down considerably here. Houses are still selling but only the lower to middle income level. Housing prices have adjusted down 20% or so to more realistic figures. The expensive houses have adjusted down somewhat more yet still don't sell. Hard to pay the taxes and heat them, never mind the price. The 500K and up market has crapped the diaper. Yep, it just kills me when the wealthy can't unload their houses....

That said, I am booked out to the end of August already. The interesting thing is that the phone has be silent. Usually the phone rings constantly and I have to turn down work but that is not happening. After August I may start to worry but for now thats a long way off. Another contractor I know is also very busy. His take on it is the good guys will get the work and the hackers are falling out of the business. Either I'm good, or I'm cheap, can't figure out which! RT

E150GT · #7 02-01-2008, 01:29 PM

I work in the electrical industry and right now we are hoppin. The amount of bulding going on is crazy.

Dee8go · #8 02-01-2008, 01:45 PM

I try not to look . . . . .

raymr · #9 02-01-2008, 02:13 PM

I don't see a recession, but our economy is not very resilient. It seems so many little things throw the markets into turmoil: oil supply, hurricanes, grampa getting a boner (not really but you know what I mean). It makes it hard to get a positive feeling when lots of negtive or inconsequential news gets aired. The key is to determine what events are the important ones.

Dee8go · #10 02-01-2008, 02:21 PM

Whatever you choose to focus on to predict the economic future, one thing is guaranteed: Something will come out of left field and smack you right up side the head.

peragro · #11 02-01-2008, 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raymr

I don't see a recession, but our economy is not very resilient. It seems so many little things throw the markets into turmoil: oil supply, hurricanes, grampa getting a boner (not really but you know what I mean). It makes it hard to get a positive feeling when lots of negtive or inconsequential news gets aired. The key is to determine what events are the important ones.

I agree. I don't think that we're in a recession if you look at the easily researched data. Emotionally, though, many, mainly media driven, says it's a recession thus the folks who think emotionally rather than rationally think it's a recession. And the economy will react to some degree if enough people take a bite of the emotional pie.

MTI · #12 02-01-2008, 05:06 PM

Well, I was going to see about gold plating my car's shifter surround and door handles . . . but it seems that the market price of gold is all foooked up . . . we must be in recession.

whunter · #13 02-01-2008, 05:09 PM

http://www.google.com/search?q=michigan+recession&rls=com.microsoft:en-us&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&startIndex=&startPage=1

t walgamuth · #14 02-01-2008, 05:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pj67coll

The meltdown of the housing industry is undoubtedly due primarily to the stupidity of homeowners. I have pointed this out in other threads in the OD board though there are of course others who like to blame the big bad financiers for pushing those loans in the first place, or the government for not protecting idiots from themselves.

However the fact that a large number of people are damm stupid doesn't mean that the consequencs of that stupidity is not real and will not filter thru to the rest of the economy in time.

Here in Phoenix there are signs of considerable job loss. But this is largely in the home building industry which also means those who are worst hit include a large number of illegals. So wether or not actual American's are as badly affected as the numbers suggest is still open to debate. But of course as there is not a huge amount of any other kind of industry here there likely will be something of a trickle down effect to other sectors of the economy, but how soon and how serverly is difficult to say.

I've watched house prices crash about a hundred thousand dollars in many areas of Phoenix over the last six months.

Seems to me that folks like you who have have discretionary income (from your days as a legal eagle if I read you post right) and are able to invest rather than live paycheck to paycheck will notice econonic difficulty less than regular schmucks living paycheck to paycheck.

Like Yoda says... "difficult to see the future is..." But I do see worrying signs that worse it to come in the near future.

- Peter.

So you are saying if you have a good income that is isolated from the areas of the economy that are down right now you are fine? And everybody else is an idiot and deserves to have hard times?

You are obviously a genius!

Congratulations.

But folks like myself who deal in a business that depends on a strong overall economy and housing growth are idiots.

I should have been a brain surgeon instead of an Architect!

The construction and real estate markets are the weakest here since.....nearly ever.

Last time it was this slow was under Bush one.

Tom W

mgburg · #15 02-01-2008, 05:51 PM

I refuse to be part of any recession...

Let the "chicken-littles" of the word scream that the sky is falling...I refuse to be part of the problem.

And...if the sky was actually falling...WTF could ANYONE do about it?

Call Al Gore, stand back and wait for a miracle...