Here is an interesting website someone emailed to me, first lets look back in time to 2008:

Here’s my view on what you can expect in 2008:

The US will enter a recession, if it has not already done so. It will be consumer spending driven, with its genesis found in the Housing market. The slowdown will become evident once the “real” holiday sales data is posted, and accelerate into the first quarter.
Unemployment will increase significantly, rising to north of 5% by the middle of next year. This will of course cascade back into consumer default rates (mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, etc) and cause yet more layoffs. The “virtuous cycle” will turn vicious.
Housing will not turn in 2008. The total damage to prices will exceed a cumulative 15% from 2005-2008, and it will not be over. At least one, and probably several, national home builders will be cut to the single digits on their stock price or go bankrupt and be reorganized. Residential Real Estate will NOT be a buy in 2008; you’re still at least one and probably two years too early.
The story in the housing space in ’08 will be the defaults on “prime” mortgages – which in reality were nothing of the kind (e.g. “Option ARMs”), and on the piggyback seconds and HELOCs behind them. “Jingle Mail” will become common as homeowners that are deeply – 20% or more – underwater simply mail in the keys and say “screw the credit rating.” This will result in a near-total overhaul of the “FICO” system in the next couple of years, as these people will have defaulted on mortgages but nothing else, essentially forcing risk premiums higher for consumer credit and decoupling FICO from actual consumer credit (other than mortgage) behavior. I expect there will emerge a “shadow” FICO system which ignores mortgages but rates everything else.
The stupidity in the rest of the consumer lending space (rollovers in auto loans and 0% balance transfer hell for plastic, primarily) will come crashing down on these companies and bring a crushing wave of defaults there as well, along with yet more downgrades in the asset-backed paper market.
Recreational sectors (e.g. boats, RVs, etc) will get smashed. If you’re in the market for high-dollar recreational assets and have cash, late ’08 and into ’09 will present some incredible buying opportunities.
Government will, as is usual, try to meddle in the market’s adjustment of risk and price. The depth of this meddling will be the determinant on whether this is a deep but sharp and reasonably-short recession or whether it morphs into something far more serious. With 08 being an election year the temptation to engage in SEVERE tampering will be significant, and if they do, the risks rise materially. There is a serious risk of an all-out deflationary depression, and if we get one, it will almost certainly be the government’s fault. Whoever wins the Presidency may wish they had lost come ’09 and ’10.
Buffett just announced he is setting up a Municipal Bond insurance company. This will put a stake into the Monolines’ hearts, taking all their business away that is profitable, and leaving them with structured finance which has huge embedded – and unrecognized – losses. The announcement, which showed up on the 28th, didn’t send shockwaves through the market – but it should have. Effectively, Warren threw a grenade (minus pin) into the magazine of structured finance. This is the death knell for the few trillion in CDSs that are out there can’t be paid; there is no longer any reason to believe that the companies writing these things will be able to be recapitalized off “profitable” sides of their business! This is how fortunes are made (for Warren) and lost (for everyone who did imprudent things.) The “big story” in the financial markets for 2008, and the likely trigger for major turmoil, will be the implosion of the CDS marketplace and how Buffett profited from it. This will stabilize the municipal bond marketplace which has been positively hammered.
Equity prices will be choppy in the first couple of months and will experience a peak to trough swing of at least 20% during the year in total. I expect the S&P 500 to at least touch 1220 in 2008 and my current downside target is 1070. Note that should we get a “parabolic” sort of move in the first quarter, which is possible, the potential for an even louder “boom” (collapse) goes up dramatically; in that case I would not be surprised to see a three-digit handle on the S&P 500 sometime during the 2008-2010 time period.
Return OF capital will be far more important in 2008 than return ON capital.
I do not expect the central banks to “hyperinflate” anything. Metals, in a protracted, serious deflationary selloff will get smashed. (If you're a "Gold Bug", read below for why I think you're nutty to hold metals - there's a better play if you believe in hyperinflation.)
Debt will be paid down when possible and when not, defaulted. This, of course, prevents deploying capital towards consumption and production. Expect this to show up in the first quarter in ways that cannot be refuted, and for the market to “get it” some time before the end of the second quarter.
Commercial Real Estate will collapse. The leverage in these deals has actually exceeded that in residential, if you can believe it. This will prove to have been totally insane and the losses taken there will be immense. It will also put a fork into the “this is contained” thesis, and validate the fact that generally, commercial R/E lags residential by 12-18 months. Guess what – time’s up!
Business CapEx will slow precipitously and may go negative. This will be “spun” for the first quarter or so, but by the middle of the second quarter it won’t be able to be spun any more, and the truth will have to be faced. That “truth time” will likely mark the start of the second big leg down in the equity markets.
The Dollar will bounce all over before starting to take off when it becomes apparently that the rest of the world is going to get it worse than we will.
The “market callers” who are (almost to a man!) calling for big moves northward in 2008 will be coming to the public “hat in hand” as we get into the latter part of the year. These people will be roundly discredited and yet another wave of so-called “analysts” will disappear from the scene, along with all the money the chumps who listened to them lost.

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1999 SL500
1969 280SE
2023 Ram 1500
2007 Tiara 3200

Now he was pretty good with those predictions, off a bit on some, but not so bad:

Ok, so with that cheery backdrop, here you go with my predictions for 2009.... and I will prefix this by saying this is a list I hope proves to be entirely incorrect. Perhaps there really is a Unicorn that craps skittles even though I've yet to find it - this is one round of predictions I'm willing to take a zero score on come December 09.

The economy will not recover in 2009. Job loss will continue through the year and unemployment will reach 8% in the "headline" statistic by the end of the year. U-6 (broad unemployment, or the closest to "real" unemployment without government "cooking") will top 15%. All the "talking heads" are predicting a turnaround in the second half of 2009. They will be wrong. Look at their records for 2008 - all of them were predicting closes at or above 1500 for the S&P 500. Why does CNBC continue to put people on the air who, if you listened to them, cost you 40% or more of your money?
Deflation, not inflation, will become evident well beyond housing. Other capital goods beyond housing will see real price declines for the first time since the 1930s. Debt is inherently deflationary; the "hyperinflationists" will once again be shown to be wrong (how many years running will it be now?)
Housing prices will continue to decline. I believe we're about halfway done with the price correction. Those who think we will turn this in 2009 are wrong - unless we get an all-on collapse in prices in early 2009, which I do not believe will occur. I've heard several claims we will have positive year-over-year home price changes in 2009. I'll take the other side of that bet.
The Fed's attempt to "pump liquidity" will be shown to be an abject failure. We will see either a Treasury Market selloff or worse, severe instability in the dollar at some point in 2009.
GDP will post a 12-month negative number and there is a decent shot that we will actually see an official depression print before the end of 2009, defined as a 10% decline peak-to-trough.
The Stock Market has not bottomed although you may think it has for a few months. The annual range will be quite extreme; I would not be surprised at all to see 1,000 touched on the SPX in the first part of the year. I believe the SPX will at least touch 500 in the next 12-24 months and the current bottom will not hold. It is possible that we could see a crash to SPX 300 and DOW 3,000 some time this year, probably after the spring (when the "Obama Halo" wears off - if it isn't blown off by economic events first.) Yes, this means I am predicting a fifty percent swing in the SPX in 2009. Lots of money to be made as a trader if you're quick and good, but an absolute minefield if you're a long-term investor.
Precious metals will not be a safe haven. The callers for $1600 and above on gold will be wrong, unless there is a major military conflict. I do not rate that probability as particularly high, but it is an event (along with a major terrorism incident - nuclear or biochemical - that would cause a rocket shot in Gold prices), so I am hedging that call. The risk of this sort of "response" to the economic crisis is, however, real, and will rise significantly going into 2010 and beyond. We'll revisit this one (a major war) next year.
The Dollar will not collapse. This is not because we're in great shape or will truly recover, it is because the rest of the world is in worse shape than we are. Last year pundits were all calling for the dollar to collapse to 40 - it didn't happen. Now they're calling the dollar's strength a "Bear market rally." Nonsense; the simple truth is that while we're in bad shape the rest of the world is literally on the precipice of a full-on collapse. European banks are more-levered and less-transparent than our banks as just one example.
The pound or euro - and perhaps both - will likely be where the FX dislocation initiates if it occurs. I see the potential for the pound and euro to both reach par with the dollar, although I'm not going to go that far out on the tree limb and predict it - yet. Needless to say that would rocket the Dollar Index but it won't be our strength that does it - it will be their weakness.
The US Consumer will go from a negative savings rate to a seriously-positive one. I am predicting 4% in 2009 but it could go as high as 10%. The math on this is simple - the "consumerist legion of more" has run its course and all that's left is debt. It hurts and bad; expecting the American Consumer to cut off his other arm is just plain dumb. By the way this is a good thing in the longer term for America once the excess debt is forced out and defaulted through the system.
Commercial Real Estate will effectively collapse and most commercial Real Estate REITs will be either insolvent or limping on life support. There will be calls for bailouts (which may be attempted; the calls are already starting to be heard) but it won't matter - a failed business is a failed business, bailout or no, and overcapacity must go away before sustainable business conditions can return.
Along with the above, expect 10% of all retail stores to close, and that number could go as high as 20%. That's not going to be fun; there will be hundreds of malls that wind up literally shuttered across America. Stay away from most retailers and property groups as investments. Firms like SPG and VNO are levitating on the strength of their dividends (7-10% yields at present); I believe this is a sucker play; if retailer defaults force dividend cuts (and I believe they will) the commercial REITs will go straight into the toilet.
Several states will get in serious financial trouble and outright default of one or more is possible in 2009. California leads this parade. But even if there is a default on a state basis, the effect will be highly localized, as county and municipal governments vary in their wisdom and budget process. The real pain comes in state-wide social and educational programs. Be very careful if you are in municipal bonds or thinking of getting back into them (I recommended they be dumped in 2007 - look at what has happened to the closed-end funds in 08! Aieeee!) as the default risk is VERY REAL. If you're buying individual issues and do the work to determine not only the risk of default but also the likely recovery if they do default there are some good deals out there - but only if you're doing the work. "Trust me" (as in buying funds, whether mutual funds or closed-end stuff) is very dangerous.
Mortgages are not done. The story last year was "Subprime." This year's will be "ALT-A", "Option ARMs" and so-called "Prime". The Fed and Treasury know this, which is why they are playing games with "agency" debt in a desperate attempt to clear this market before the ticking nuclear devices go off. The amount of debt involved in these "bad deals" is vastly higher than that in the "subprime" space and if they fail to contain it (a near certainty) Round #2 of severe bank instability gets served up on us in the second half of 2009.

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1999 SL500
1969 280SE
2023 Ram 1500
2007 Tiara 3200

If you want to refinance a mortgage you may get one brief shot at it with long rates around 4%. You're nuts to buy outright unless you intend to die in the home, but if you have a solid reason to be obtaining a mortgage or wish to refinance you will probably get the opportunity. This assumes the "buydown game" gets going before Treasuries dislocate; if you get the opportunity take it as it is likely to be fleeting. The few places in this country where homes wind up selling for 2.5x incomes (on average) and you have an opportunity to finance at 4% and change will be decent buying opportunities - if you're sure you can cash flow the note (e.g. your job and/or income stream is not in any danger of collapsing.)
Those who have said that the corporate bond market is being "unreasonable" in its expectation for defaults will start to look like the jackasses they are. Actual default rates (not projections) on non-investment-grade debt will skyrocket starting in 2009 and there will be no sign of it turning around this year. If you're playing in this area of the market thinking that "the worst is behind us", I hope you like walking around bald as the haircuts handed out to folks like you will be especially severe and delivered with a straight razor.
The calls for "more lending" to consumers and businesses will go exactly nowhere. The problem isn't credit availability - there's plenty of money available to lend if you are credit-worthy. Those who are being turned down now simply aren't credit-worthy when one looks at what they want to do with the money and what they're backing their repayment capacity with. The more "credit stimulus" is thrown into the economy (and there will be more) the worse the downturn will get.
General Motors and Chrysler will fail to meet their targets and it will be labor that sinks the deal. At least one and probably both will wind up in some form of bankruptcy in 2009. The UAW is insane; Gettlefinger needs to be strung up by his genitals and pelted with rotten tomatoes by his union "brothers", and if they had a lick of sense they'd have already done it. They obviously don't. I give this mess six months tops, with Ford as the only possible survivor. The recent GMAC games show exactly how desperate they are; 0% 5 year loans to people with 620 FICO scores are flat-out insane and the default rates on those loans are going to wind up in economics textbooks five years hence.
Protectionism and currency manipulation will rear their ugly heads in 2009, originating not here but in Asia as their economies go straight into the toilet. China and Japan are at severe risk here.
Commodities will appear to be headed for a new bull market but this will turn out to be a false hope as demand continues to collapse. Attempts to manage oil output to prop up the price will fail. Several oil-producing nations will find themselves in serious economic trouble, with Russia being in the lead but by no means alone.
Sovereign debt defaults will number at least three with many other nations on "watch" for same; we had one last year (Iceland.) Noise about a US "AAA" downgrade will continue. Highest on the list for probables are Russia, which needs oil at roughly double its current price - and stable - to be financially viable. Not going to happen in the near term.
China will have its first large-scale rumbling of civil unrest as a consequence of collapsing export demand and thus employment. They'll manage to tamp it down - this year. Don't take a bet on that holding together longer-term. Those who think China will be "ok" are deluded; they have a horrifying overcapacity problem (debt-financed, of course) and there is no way for them to get out of it. They are truly going to "take it in both holes" down the road, but the worst of it won't be in 2009 - that is still a year or two in the future.
Foreign uptake of Treasuries will be choked off - by necessity. It won't be because they want to screw the US (although they should have a long time ago, given our profligate and unsustainable habits), it will be because they will be forced to redirect their resources inward as their own economies collapse.
"The City" (London to be precise, Britain generally) will be recognized as getting it "worse than we are" (in America.) This will be the first of many validations of my thesis "we're screwed, they're gang-raped."
Things will get "revolting" in a number of nations. Not here in America. Yet. If we're lucky the American Sheep will wake up and stage some of that peaceful protest stuff I outlined above. If we're not so fortunate 2010 could be really bad.

In terms of recommendations its simple - rallies are to be sold, cash is to be raised and prudence is to be practiced in your own personal financial affairs. Don't get creative in all things finance, get stingy and prudent. Your personal financial survival could well depend on it.


http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/689-Where-We-Are,-Where-Were-Heading-2009.html

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1999 SL500
1969 280SE
2023 Ram 1500
2007 Tiara 3200

Recession, Depression!? What are people talking about? We ain't got no such thing around here. We got strong economy!

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I like how he says while we are screwed, the rest of the world is going to get gang raped.

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1999 SL500
1969 280SE
2023 Ram 1500
2007 Tiara 3200

Well, I am getting a kick out of it. That's for sure.

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Peter Schiff and Gerald Celente are a couple of guys who predicted all of the market meltdown and R.E. bubble bursting while the bubble was forming.(You-tube has lots of videos of their interviews) They say the problem is that Americans had become consumers because of phony baloney wealth from increasing home prices instead real wealth from being producers and exporters. They both claim there will be hyperinflation because of all the money being created by government inflating the money supply; both say gold and foreign assets are the place to invest.
They see China and India will be able to weather the financial storm because the have a producer work ethic, they export and no personal debt for the citizens and they are investing in their infrastructure and have no place to go but up. Asia will stop buying dollars and cause the dollar to collapse(But I don't agree with weathering the financial storm or collapsing dollar)

I personally don't see hyperinflation, only because there is no place for this 'new money' to go other than disappearing as bandages on a broken financial institutions and bail outs. Very little of these phony Obama trillions will ever hit the liquid economy,( just like Japan in the 1990's until now) I see most Americans are scared, have already pulled back spending and are paying off debt,... a good thing. I see nothing but deflation and negative to stagnant growth and lots of box retailers going out of business. I see are growing distrust and anger for Wall Street, arrogant highly paid CEO's, politicians and the "GREEDY MAN" in general; these people are seen as the cause for the destruction of middle class retirement accounts and everything seeming stable in America. They don't ever seem to understand the plight of the middle class. Don't be surprised if you see a 'peaceful' middle class uprising of some sort and a new political party representing the over-taxed middle.
Dow 3000, S&P 400 with wild bear market rallies similar to the 1930's.
Mark Twain once said; "History doesn't always repeat itself, but it rhymes a lot."

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"Our Lady of Blessed Acceleration...
don't Fail Us Now"

Face it, we're Europe part two, running out of people, with the exception of illegals.

Since Rowe v. Wade decision, we're short some 40 million people (consumers) and growing. This people problem will only get worse.
Who says USSC decisions don't have ramifications?

Here is a quote from you Hattarasguy from a few months ago.
When I was talking about what I thought was going to happen.
Lots of people took the oppertuninty to laugh at, and poke fun at me in that thread.
Now your saying some of the exact same things I did then.

http://www.peachparts.com/shopforum/showthread.php?t=229987

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When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace.
Jimi Hendrix

No I don't think like you Rich, and the world is most certainly not ending.

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1999 SL500
1969 280SE
2023 Ram 1500
2007 Tiara 3200

Whose quotations are those? If they were cited somewhere, I missed it.

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" We have nothing to fear but the main stream media itself . . . ."- Adapted from Franklin D Roosevelt for the 21st century

OBK #55

1998 Lincoln Continental - Sold
Max 1984 300TD 285,000 miles - Sold
The Dee8gonator 1987 560SEC 196,000 miles - Sold
Orgasmatron - 2006 CLS500 90,000 miles
2002 C320 Wagon 122,000 miles
2016 AMG GTS 12,000 miles

Did the author happen to mention where, exactly, GM stock is going to be in the 2nd quarter?

bingo!

I don't buy it. Last year's events were very predictable simply based on the fact that home prices escalated to a point where first-time buyers couldn't get in. It wasn't a matter of 'if', but 'when'. Now, those prices are back down, along with interest rates. Fuel costs are less than half of what they were last year, creating windfalls for businessess that were budgeting for yet higher costs. The UAW will become irrelevant as it transitions to being simply a caretaker of pension funds and retiree benefits.

The doom-and-gloomers are saying that everything will stop and melt down. What they don't take into account is the hugeness of our economy, and that there are still millions of families and individuals that purchase housing and use up consumables. The only change is they are shopping smarter and smaller. Thats a good thing. The only real variable is the unemployment rate. Obama's plan will get people to work on the crumbling US infrastructure (roads, bridges, public utilities), investments in the future that are long overdue.

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1985 380SE Blue/Blue - 230,000 miles
2012 Subaru Forester 5-speed
2005 Toyota Sienna
2004 Chrysler Sebring convertible
1999 Toyota Tacoma

You're a lot smarter than almost everybody else.