Parts Catalog Accessories Catalog How To Articles Tech Forums
Call Pelican Parts at 888-280-7799
Shopping Cart Cart | Project List | Order Status | Help



Go Back   PeachParts Mercedes-Benz Forum > General Discussions > Off-Topic Discussion

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 05-20-2009, 05:54 PM
MS Fowler's Avatar
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Littlestown PA ( 6 miles south of Gettysburg)
Posts: 2,278
7 years into Global COOLING!

for those who minds are not completely closed.....

http://www.icecap.us/

__________________
1982 300SD " Wotan" ..On the road as of Jan 8, 2007 with Historic Tags
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 05-20-2009, 06:19 PM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Reno/Sparks, NV
Posts: 3,063
I wouldn't exactly call it a cooling trend. Look closely at this graph which comes from the same website:



2005 was in fact one of two hottest years on record, the other one was 1998. True, the warming trend that we saw in the 90's has come to a halt, but who knows for how long and it's certainly not a cooling trend yet. We'll know more in a few years. Given how weak the sun's radiation is right now (solar cycle 24 is barely coming to life), I'm not at all surprised that the warming has taken a pause.
__________________
2004 VW Jetta TDI (manual)

Past MB's: '96 E300D, '83 240D, '82 300D, '87 300D, '87 420SEL
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 05-20-2009, 06:21 PM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Long Island
Posts: 578
Interesting, but it hardly seems to be an objective source. Even their name belies the axe they have to grind.
__________________
1987 W201 190D
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 05-20-2009, 06:28 PM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Long Island
Posts: 578
I don't have access to the data set, but it seems like a case of "lying with statistics." They could have chosen many other intervals over which to make a linear best fit that would have shown a zero or positive slope. Go back one more year, and it looks like the line would be flat. Eliminate 2009 and the line would be flat or positive. Start at 1999, the line would be very positive, but start at 1998 and the line would be very negative. Basically, the use of the linear best fit on small portions of these data amounts to bullsht.
__________________
1987 W201 190D
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 05-20-2009, 06:32 PM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Reno/Sparks, NV
Posts: 3,063
Quote:
Originally Posted by JonL View Post
Interesting, but it hardly seems to be an objective source. Even their name belies the axe they have to grind.
I usually ignore the opinions (and there are plenty of strong ones on that site) and look at the raw data. Judging from the opinions, I'd agree that source is hardly objective. For example, even though they claim that "natural forces are about three times stronger than the maximum possible effects from CO2 increases", they also say that "any initiatives aimed at reducing CO2 emissions for the purpose of reducing global warming are entirely without merit and serve no purpose whatsoever." So they essentially admit that CO2 is a heat-trapping gas that probably has some noticeable effect, yet they say it makes no sense to control it. Is this an oil lobby website?
__________________
2004 VW Jetta TDI (manual)

Past MB's: '96 E300D, '83 240D, '82 300D, '87 300D, '87 420SEL
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 05-20-2009, 06:35 PM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Reno/Sparks, NV
Posts: 3,063
Quote:
Originally Posted by JonL View Post
I don't have access to the data set, but it seems like a case of "lying with statistics." They could have chosen many other intervals over which to make a linear best fit that would have shown a zero or positive slope. Go back one more year, and it looks like the line would be flat. Eliminate 2009 and the line would be flat or positive. Start at 1999, the line would be very positive, but start at 1998 and the line would be very negative. Basically, the use of the linear best fit on small portions of these data amounts to bullsht.
Absolutely. Somewhere else I saw a plot of 5-year mean temps, and that way you can still see a warming trend even for this decade. That's why I said ignore the opinions and study the data yourself.
__________________
2004 VW Jetta TDI (manual)

Past MB's: '96 E300D, '83 240D, '82 300D, '87 300D, '87 420SEL
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 05-20-2009, 07:14 PM
JollyRoger's Avatar
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by DieselAddict View Post
I wouldn't exactly call it a cooling trend. Look closely at this graph which comes from the same website:



2005 was in fact one of two hottest years on record, the other one was 1998. True, the warming trend that we saw in the 90's has come to a halt, but who knows for how long and it's certainly not a cooling trend yet. We'll know more in a few years. Given how weak the sun's radiation is right now (solar cycle 24 is barely coming to life), I'm not at all surprised that the warming has taken a pause.
Look at it - the co2 line mirrors economic output.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 05-20-2009, 07:22 PM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Reno/Sparks, NV
Posts: 3,063
Ha! I just noticed the graph above uses the 1979-1998 temp average as the baseline. Why use the ending year of 1998? Because 1998 was the hottest year on record which bumps the baseline and exaggerates the "cooling" trend of 2000's. Forget that website. I just found this one that seems pretty objective:
http://www.quaker.org/clq/2007/TQE158-EN-GlobalWarming.html

In fact I think this is one of the best that I've seen so far. The author considers all the variables and uses rather simple analytical methods to look at the main pieces of data, such as temperature, solar variability and fossil fuel usage, and plots them against one another. Very interesting! Apparently, the burning of fossil fuels has 2-3 times as much effect on 1850-2007 temperatures as variations in solar activity.
__________________
2004 VW Jetta TDI (manual)

Past MB's: '96 E300D, '83 240D, '82 300D, '87 300D, '87 420SEL
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 05-20-2009, 07:46 PM
JollyRoger's Avatar
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 48
I personally don't put much stock in most of the temperature charts because of the issue of calibration. The real data is in ice and rock cores - we know what the earth looked like in the past and we know what the concentration of CO2 and methane was at the time by looking at these cores. This is what we are approaching, and why most of the world's scientists are going ape****:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene-Eocene_Thermal_Maximum

Most of your right wing deniers are utterly clueless about the methane cycle. We really do not know at what point of CO2 saturation it is initiated, but we know by looking at history and pre-history, ice cores and rock cores and geological studies that massive amounts of methane from decayed organic matter is locked up in perma-frost and when global warming warms the areas where this methane is stored, well methane, you want a greenhouse gas, it makes CO2 look like a rank amateur:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_release

I just don't get the right wingers. Look at the Wiki's above: if the right wingers are wrong and we do nothing, we will all die. If they are right and lefties do something, we get a cleaner environment. I think I'd rather take a chance on the lefties being wrong. This alone is enough to convince me:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_shrinkage
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 05-20-2009, 08:03 PM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Reno/Sparks, NV
Posts: 3,063
The feedback cycle is probably what scares me the most. It's not directly the temperature increase from human emissions that might kill us, but what it may lead to or trigger, like the accelerated melting of the permafrost and warming of the oceans that will unleash the greenhouse gases stored naturally there. And once there's no more ice to melt and cool the oceans, the oceans will heat up quickly, and the land masses even more so. One big question is what the Sun is going to do. If it remains stuck in its current minimum, it will help take some of the steam out of global warming as has been happening in the last few years, but it will also temporarily give the deniers more credibility and quite possibly make people more complacent which could be very dangerous. There's nothing wrong with being skeptical and analytical, in fact it's good, but too often the truth is not what's being sought and propagated.
__________________
2004 VW Jetta TDI (manual)

Past MB's: '96 E300D, '83 240D, '82 300D, '87 300D, '87 420SEL
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 05-20-2009, 08:05 PM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Columbus OH
Posts: 275
Global Cooling is a result of Global Warming.
__________________
1984 300TD
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 05-20-2009, 08:09 PM
waybomb's Avatar
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 1,555
I am trying very hard to fix global cooling. Very hard. I'm just not helping all that much it appears.
__________________
Thank You!
Fred
2009 ML350
2004 SL600
2004 SL500
1996 SL600
2002 SLK32
2005 CLK320 cabrio
2003 ML350
1997 C280 Sport
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 05-20-2009, 10:51 PM
Matt SD300's Avatar
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 276
Quote:
Originally Posted by tankdriver View Post
Global Cooling is a result of Global Warming.

Thats the best one!!........

Put another way... When the fire goes OUT..the skillet gets HOT!!!.......LMASO!!!


Oh well ...Doing my part....Smokin da hippies!!.........
__________________
Matt (SD,CA)

1984 300SD.. White/Chrome Bunts..Green

1997 2500 Dodge Ram 5.9 Cummins 12 Valve 36 PSI of Boost = 400+hp & 800+tQ .. ..Greenspeed

2004 Dodge Ram 2500 4x4 Quad Cab Cummins 5.9 H.O "596hp/1225tq" 6 spd. Man. Leather Heated seats/Loaded..Flame Red....GREENSPEED

Global warming...Doing my part, Smokin da hippies..

Fight the good fight!......
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 05-20-2009, 11:11 PM
cmac2012's Avatar
Renaissances Dude
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Redwood City, CA
Posts: 33,911
Quote:
Originally Posted by JonL View Post
Interesting, but it hardly seems to be an objective source. Even their name belies the axe they have to grind.
This bit from the column on the left is sorta telling:

Something is terribly wrong with the individual government science bodies who did not come forward and inform their own leaders when it was certain that global warming had ended, or when there was sufficient data to claim that we are now in a cooling trend.

Oh, it's certain that global warming has ended? How is this different from the sort of stuff that comes from Al Gore's mouth, claims that the science is conclusive, that AGW is an absolute fact, etc?
__________________
1986 300SDL, 362K
1984 300D, 138K
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 05-20-2009, 11:12 PM
cmac2012's Avatar
Renaissances Dude
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Redwood City, CA
Posts: 33,911
Quote:
Originally Posted by Matt SD300 View Post
Thats the best one!!........

Put another way... When the fire goes OUT..the skillet gets HOT!!!.......LMASO!!!


Oh well ...Doing my part....Smokin da hippies!!.........
Dream on, sweet prince.

__________________
1986 300SDL, 362K
1984 300D, 138K
Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On




All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:01 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.6.0
Copyright 2024 Pelican Parts, LLC - Posts may be archived for display on the Peach Parts or Pelican Parts Website -    DMCA Registered Agent Contact Page