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#1
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7 years into Global COOLING!
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1982 300SD " Wotan" ..On the road as of Jan 8, 2007 with Historic Tags |
#2
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I wouldn't exactly call it a cooling trend. Look closely at this graph which comes from the same website:
2005 was in fact one of two hottest years on record, the other one was 1998. True, the warming trend that we saw in the 90's has come to a halt, but who knows for how long and it's certainly not a cooling trend yet. We'll know more in a few years. Given how weak the sun's radiation is right now (solar cycle 24 is barely coming to life), I'm not at all surprised that the warming has taken a pause.
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2004 VW Jetta TDI (manual) Past MB's: '96 E300D, '83 240D, '82 300D, '87 300D, '87 420SEL |
#3
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Interesting, but it hardly seems to be an objective source. Even their name belies the axe they have to grind.
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1987 W201 190D |
#4
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I don't have access to the data set, but it seems like a case of "lying with statistics." They could have chosen many other intervals over which to make a linear best fit that would have shown a zero or positive slope. Go back one more year, and it looks like the line would be flat. Eliminate 2009 and the line would be flat or positive. Start at 1999, the line would be very positive, but start at 1998 and the line would be very negative. Basically, the use of the linear best fit on small portions of these data amounts to bullsht.
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1987 W201 190D |
#5
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I usually ignore the opinions (and there are plenty of strong ones on that site) and look at the raw data. Judging from the opinions, I'd agree that source is hardly objective. For example, even though they claim that "natural forces are about three times stronger than the maximum possible effects from CO2 increases", they also say that "any initiatives aimed at reducing CO2 emissions for the purpose of reducing global warming are entirely without merit and serve no purpose whatsoever." So they essentially admit that CO2 is a heat-trapping gas that probably has some noticeable effect, yet they say it makes no sense to control it. Is this an oil lobby website?
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2004 VW Jetta TDI (manual) Past MB's: '96 E300D, '83 240D, '82 300D, '87 300D, '87 420SEL |
#6
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Quote:
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2004 VW Jetta TDI (manual) Past MB's: '96 E300D, '83 240D, '82 300D, '87 300D, '87 420SEL |
#7
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Quote:
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#8
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Ha! I just noticed the graph above uses the 1979-1998 temp average as the baseline. Why use the ending year of 1998? Because 1998 was the hottest year on record which bumps the baseline and exaggerates the "cooling" trend of 2000's. Forget that website. I just found this one that seems pretty objective:
http://www.quaker.org/clq/2007/TQE158-EN-GlobalWarming.html In fact I think this is one of the best that I've seen so far. The author considers all the variables and uses rather simple analytical methods to look at the main pieces of data, such as temperature, solar variability and fossil fuel usage, and plots them against one another. Very interesting! Apparently, the burning of fossil fuels has 2-3 times as much effect on 1850-2007 temperatures as variations in solar activity.
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2004 VW Jetta TDI (manual) Past MB's: '96 E300D, '83 240D, '82 300D, '87 300D, '87 420SEL |
#9
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I personally don't put much stock in most of the temperature charts because of the issue of calibration. The real data is in ice and rock cores - we know what the earth looked like in the past and we know what the concentration of CO2 and methane was at the time by looking at these cores. This is what we are approaching, and why most of the world's scientists are going ape****:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleocene-Eocene_Thermal_Maximum Most of your right wing deniers are utterly clueless about the methane cycle. We really do not know at what point of CO2 saturation it is initiated, but we know by looking at history and pre-history, ice cores and rock cores and geological studies that massive amounts of methane from decayed organic matter is locked up in perma-frost and when global warming warms the areas where this methane is stored, well methane, you want a greenhouse gas, it makes CO2 look like a rank amateur: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_methane_release I just don't get the right wingers. Look at the Wiki's above: if the right wingers are wrong and we do nothing, we will all die. If they are right and lefties do something, we get a cleaner environment. I think I'd rather take a chance on the lefties being wrong. This alone is enough to convince me: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_shrinkage |
#10
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The feedback cycle is probably what scares me the most. It's not directly the temperature increase from human emissions that might kill us, but what it may lead to or trigger, like the accelerated melting of the permafrost and warming of the oceans that will unleash the greenhouse gases stored naturally there. And once there's no more ice to melt and cool the oceans, the oceans will heat up quickly, and the land masses even more so. One big question is what the Sun is going to do. If it remains stuck in its current minimum, it will help take some of the steam out of global warming as has been happening in the last few years, but it will also temporarily give the deniers more credibility and quite possibly make people more complacent which could be very dangerous. There's nothing wrong with being skeptical and analytical, in fact it's good, but too often the truth is not what's being sought and propagated.
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2004 VW Jetta TDI (manual) Past MB's: '96 E300D, '83 240D, '82 300D, '87 300D, '87 420SEL |
#11
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Global Cooling is a result of Global Warming.
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1984 300TD |
#12
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I am trying very hard to fix global cooling. Very hard. I'm just not helping all that much it appears.
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Thank You! Fred 2009 ML350 2004 SL600 2004 SL500 1996 SL600 2002 SLK32 2005 CLK320 cabrio 2003 ML350 1997 C280 Sport |
#13
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Thats the best one!!........ Put another way... When the fire goes OUT..the skillet gets HOT!!!.......LMASO!!! Oh well ...Doing my part....Smokin da hippies!!.........
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Matt (SD,CA) 1984 300SD.. White/Chrome Bunts..Green 1997 2500 Dodge Ram 5.9 Cummins 12 Valve 36 PSI of Boost = 400+hp & 800+tQ .. ..Greenspeed 2004 Dodge Ram 2500 4x4 Quad Cab Cummins 5.9 H.O "596hp/1225tq" 6 spd. Man. Leather Heated seats/Loaded..Flame Red....GREENSPEED Global warming...Doing my part, Smokin da hippies.. Fight the good fight!...... |
#14
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Something is terribly wrong with the individual government science bodies who did not come forward and inform their own leaders when it was certain that global warming had ended, or when there was sufficient data to claim that we are now in a cooling trend. Oh, it's certain that global warming has ended? How is this different from the sort of stuff that comes from Al Gore's mouth, claims that the science is conclusive, that AGW is an absolute fact, etc?
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1986 300SDL, 362K 1984 300D, 138K |
#15
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Dream on, sweet prince.
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1986 300SDL, 362K 1984 300D, 138K |
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