The cost of imported beer isn't due to inflation, it's due to the weaker dollar. That is not the same thing. I agree that the dollar is weak and that increases the price of imported goods. Some would argue that a weaker dollar actually helps the trade deficit because it makes US products more attractive (that is why china artificially keeps its currency devalued). Again; the current risk is deflation, not inflation.

Frankly, unless you are sitting on a bunch of cash inflation shouldn't be a concern.

If that were true then ALL prices would be up 90% this year - inflation affects the purchasing power of all dollars, not the dollars used to buy only certain things.

Sure it's gambling - it's not worth any more than what people are willing to pay for it, and if what people are willing to pay for it is primarily based on speculation and not the material value of an object than you are at risk of losing a nice chunk of what you paid for it. It's no different than real estate, in fact that was the mentality a lot of people had when they bought into the real estate bubble.

I'm hearing as a general theme that somehow the fed and the major banks are conspiring to destroy the national monetary supply.

First of all - the near collapse of our financial system had less to do with monetary policy and the fed than it did with the worthless oversight of derivative instruments (based on a speculative real estate market), combined with the greed and poor foresight of several (most) of the "best and brightest" in the financial world. This is hugely important - already people are getting distracted away from the real problem that there was virtually no oversight into how billions of invested dollars were being traded and lost.

Secondly - let's assume for a moment that what you're saying is actually true, that the people who run the fed and our major banks are working to destroy this country through massive inflation. Why would they want to do that? Their wealth is primarily in US dollars, they live in the United States - what personal gain would they get by devaluing their own net worth through inflationary means?

The CPI would be a better indicator of inflation instead of picking the four
commodities that are up the most. Most families spend a large percentage of their income on housing not cotton.

Why won't income keep up with inflation?

The Fed wants to keep house prices from falling to decrease foreclosures.
Read some financial books about the depression and see what happens when the Fed lets deflation take hold. youtube is for entertainment books are for learning.

I'm waiting to buy, I have a feeling it will drop pretty low than bounce back slightly. I'm hoping to buy at around the bottom of the curve.

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So much of the market is irrational, (fear and greed) that timing it is
nearly impossible. If it was easy we all would have bought gold at $700

I'm not trying to time it precisely, when the bubble bursts its easy to spot, buy when everyone panic's and try's to sell.

Investing is simple, when the general public sells buy, when they buy sell.

My largest regret was being dumb and not buying dog financial and auto stocks in 2008 when the market was way down.

I was going to buy gold at $900ish but I thought that was high, I should have I still would have done ok. Gold speculating is just fun though, you can't make any money on it.

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That might work, depending how low it gets when it finally tanks.

You know, I thought that too, but the dollar index at 80 is about the same it has been for years.

Just read this article -> http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2010/12/lull-before-storm-whats-coming-in-2011.html

It's a pretty good, recommended by Harvey Organ

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The prices I'm talking about take time to get to the consumer. For example Hanes buys cotton. They pay a few people 6 figures to get cheaper cotton. These people buy futures in cotton and take delivery. The cotton in you christmas presents this year was more than likely purchased via a futures contract in 2009. Later this year, you will see the price of cotton clothing virtually double at retail stores.


I beg to differ. it is not gambling. Playing the stock market is gambling. Going to the coin shop and buying an American Gold Eagle AGE or an ounce of Silver is not gambling. You are buying something with intrinsic value. The real estate bubble is a completely differnent animal. First, you NEVER REALLY OWN REAL ESTATE AS LONG AS YOU PAY TAXES ON IT. Try owning a chunk of land and not paying the annual property tax.
It's not precious metals that are in a bubble, it is the fiat currency that is the bubble. The George Washington one dollar bill in your wallet buys about the same amount of stuff that 5˘ did in 1913. AND did you know that if you kept your silver dimes, you could still buy gas at 30˘ a gallon?
So there is quite a big difference between RE and PM.

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I don't disagree with his concerns about the debt, although his debt number includes internal debt (borrowing from the SS fund), which isn't "real" debt. I think he is correct that commodities are currently a bubble, although I'm not sure it is just people looking for a "safe haven"; I think there is also considerable speculation driving the market. He does not appear to be concerned about inflation, just the methods that are being used by the fed to stimulate borrowing.

What you are saying is true over the long term, but there are certainly short term bubbles in the precious metals market; we are in one right now. If you go out and buy gold coins at close to $1400, you had better be prepared to hold on to them for a very, very long time. At some point the bottom will fall out, I don't know if will happen next week or two years from now but it will happen. Maybe your grandkids will come out ahead of the dollar if they hold those coins, but you will get slammed in the short term. If you really want to go that way, wait for this bubble to bust, then buy up a bunch of precious metals when everyone else is scrambling to get out.

The CPI is a joke, common now food isn't included, fuel isn't included. After I posted that commodities post, I've read a little more and it appears EVERY commodity was up in 2010. Wheat, corn, all metals, by OVER 10%.

Wages always lag inflation. You are going to pay more for the cup of coffee, until you get a raise. If it gets bad enough, you will get raises every couple of months.

The majority of foreclosures happen because the wage earner lost his/her job. There are a few exceptions where it is economically beneficial for under water home owners to bail, but IMHO that number is much lower than the number of foreclosures due to lack of employment.

here's a youtube for your entertainment:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IiarVvZguY

guarantee you'll learn something from this vid

books are so passé

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I'm much more bullish on silver, as the youtube in an earlier post video explains what's going on in that market.

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