Maybe no housing rebound for a generation: Shiller - Chicago Tribune

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1987 560SL
85,000 miles

Since when are housing prices that are actually AFFORDABLE a bad thing? Anyone who wants to bring back the Bubble, where few people could afford a decent house without lying about their income, is basically a traitor and a criminal. The proper housing price point is where a family can afford a 2- or 3-bedroom place in a decent neighborhood on ONE average income (or 1.5x that income at most).

(Not that a glut of rentable property + rising rents is making me terribly upset either.)

I'm amazed that this country still considers the housing market as something separate from the rest of the economy. It's connected intimately to it as a parasite to a host. When the host dies so does the parasite.

This Yale guy is optimistic. I'd consider the US economy to be in a "bumping along the bottom" state for the next 15 to 20 years, which means we'll see meaningless rises in prices from a dismal level to a slightly less dismal level before they drop back down again to another dismal level etc.

So a bunch of "housing experts" will continue to squawk on the media every half percentage point increase about how this might be the begining of a recovery only to be squawking about how surprised they are a couple of months later that it's in the toilet again, and on, and on, and on, and on, and on...

- Peter.

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2021 Chevrolet Spark
Formerly...
2000 GMC Sonoma
1981 240D 4spd stick. 347000 miles. Deceased Feb 14 2021
2002 Kia Rio. Worst crap on four wheels
1981 240D 4spd stick. 389000 miles.
1984 123 200
1979 116 280S
1972 Cadillac Sedan DeVille
1971 108 280S

Yeah, let the windbags blather. Nobody I know pays them any mind. All I know is that it's a tremendous opportunity to pick up defaults, tax liens and foreclosures cheaper and easier than within the last 20 years.

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Which is something my wife and I have been doing. We get most of them so cheaply that I can get a ROI 24-48 months in rental.

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1987 560SL
85,000 miles

Reports indicate the housing market is picking up around here. Prices rising and houses new to the market selling in a couple of weeks.

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1977 300d 70k--sold 08
1985 300TD 185k+
1984 307d 126k--sold 8/03
1985 409d 65k--sold 06
1984 300SD 315k--daughter's car
1979 300SD 122k--sold 2/11
1999 Fuso FG Expedition Camper
1993 GMC Sierra 6.5 TD 4x4
1982 Bluebird Wanderlodge CAT 3208--Sold 2/13

Ditto in the Minneapolis/St Paul area. Median prices are actually rising and many homes are in multiple offer situations. Inventory on the market is really down, in fact we have technically fallen into a sellers market here.

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2009 ML320 Bluetec
1985 300CD
1981 300TD

Past Mercedes
1979 300TD
1982 300TD
2000 E320 4Matic Wagon
1998 E430
1984 300SD
1980 300SD

You're going to have areas here and there that still do well, due to specific local conditions - ie, North Dakota having a shortage of housing and running a state budget surplus due to the Bakken oil field boom - people are going to try and move to where they can still find decent paying jobs.

But overall, I'd agree with Peter - it's going to be a generation before we see any significant turnaround, and this country can remake it's economy into something more sustainable than everyone building houses or having a service sector job - an economy that can create wealth, not just keep passing the same buck from hand to hand.

And if the Feds and many of the states continue on their present financial courses....

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Just say "NO" to Ethanol - Drive Diesel

Mitchell Oates
Mooresville, NC
'87 300D 212K miles
'87 300D 151K miles - R.I.P. 12/08
'05 Jeep Liberty CRD 67K miles
Grumpy Old Diesel Owners Club

The real estate around here is picking up also. The local judge executive called me and said they are putting a large grocery store right next to my shop on the main highway. I'm hoping that they need my commercial land for their project. I will sell my property for a cool $500,000. I guess we will see.

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For the Saved, this world is the worst it will ever get.
For the unSaved, this world is the best it will ever get.

Clk's Ebay Stuff BUY SOMETHING NOW!!!

someone should tell the builders around here. Ive seen two new neighbor hoods with 15 - 20 houses and an old empty one that stopped 3 years around the corner has built easily 10 houses in the past 6 months

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1982 300CD Turbo (Otis, "ups & downs") parts for sale
2003 TJ with Hemi (to go anywhere, quickly) sold
2001 Excursion Powerstroke (to go dependably)
1970 Mustang 428SCJ (to go fast)
1962 Corvette LS1 (to go in style)
2001 Schwinn Grape Krate 10spd (if all else fails)

Yes, around here mosts houses are selling within 2 months.

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'07 Yukon 2500
'13 Subaru Outback 3.6R
'13 Orbea Carpe 9-speed

Currently Benzless
Formerly: 300TD, S600, E55, 560SEL

---= The forest breathes, listen.
-Native American elder

When I started selling new homes in 1996 a 2461 sq ft 2 story sold for $99k ,that same home was $165 just 8 yrs later when I left the business in 2004 .The lot cost was some 10K difference but that still is a $56k increase in 8 yrs .I dont know of any industry in the US that raises its prices quicker than what the housing industry has its its PREVIOUS 15 yrs .Appraisal districts along with banks (lenders) are leading this higher and higher value up to epidemic heights and people who have held onto what the market says on appraised values have found their way to owning an unsaleable ,over valued home. The builders profit ,banks who get a bigger loan profit ,its only the people who buy into these values who are the suckers.
Florida is full of underhanded bankers and theives ,I wouldnt live in a state that hides crooks behind laws ,they are by far the worst of the bunch .I guess living that a high life style as they do you need plenty of cash .

I heard this same gloom and doom stuff in the late 70's when gas hit fifty cents a gallon and loan rates were around 18%.

But people got used to the higher gas prices, and the recession of the early 80's killed the high interest rates, so things turned around again.

Then the Savings and Loans were deregulated and a housing bubble took off until the S&L's all went broke in the mid 80's. Housing prices slumped again and then started a long slow climb up until that bubble burst.

This Summer will tell the tale. At least once a week now I can hear the pop-pop of someone getting a new roof, and if you need home repairs you had better not need them badly because the wait for a Tech is about three weeks.

I think as people begin to feel more secure about the future home sales will pick-up, but expect a lot of sales this summer since that is the traditional moving time for folks with children.

Decent sales and a prolonged period of reasonable prices would be ideal. Why would anyone want a necessity to be priced out of the reach of the average American? Politicians think that rising food or fuel prices are bad. Why should a roof over one's head be different?

As far as the local (NJ, where I'm looking for rentals) market, I don't see much change from last year. Lots of short sales just sitting there, some good homes selling, and feels like foreclosures are starting to come online. San Diego OTOH has tightened up, though I've seen the beginning of an increase in inventory in the past week or so, in the areas that I'm tracking. Thankfully!

Well, my area of Long Island is littered with the corpses of the foolish faux riche who acted like mini potentates several years ago spending, spending and spending. Never conserving for the inevitable day when the collapse came.
Now look at them, dumping their houses, in some cases walking away from them and leaving a trail of debt.
Bad for them, good for me.

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